Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/12/17

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Pitcher

Stephen Strasburg FD 11400 DK 12700
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 42.33 DK - 27.89

With most 9 game slates, pitching isn't this horrible. You will typically have at least 3 strong options, with some more tournament guys. Tonight, you have Stephen Strasburg and then you have nothing. Sure, Yu Darvish and Jacob DeGrom have more than enough upside in tournaments. They also both face top 5 offenses, so I won't be touching them in cash games. Strasburg on the other hand, gets one of the friendlier match-ups in baseball, the Atlanta Braves without Freddie Freeman. Strasburg pitched against these guys just a few days after Freeman got hurt, tossing 7.2 innings and striking out 11. This has been his best season yet, showing a level of consistency that has been dreamed of in years past. Strasburg may be turning into the guy we all thought he would be when he was 21 and throwing 101 in his debut. He's sported a .236 wOBA against lefties and a .273 against righties, while striking out 10 batters per 9 innings. Matt Kemp and Matt Adams are the 2 biggest bats to fear on the Braves, which should give you a good idea of the lineup quality. They have pulled through at home a few times, but Nationals Park is a bit more favorable for pitching and I see Strasburg dominating here. In cash games, I will have 110% Stephen Strasburg on every site.

Masahiro Tanaka FD 7900 DK 7800
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @LAA
FD - 29.37 DK - 19.5

Yes, DeGrom and Darvish are the 2 guys with the highest raw expectation after Strasburg. They are just way too expensive to consider as an SP2 due to the bats being so expensive on the slate. If you want to force it, I don't hate it. I just find it a bit scary to target either of those guys when you will have to punt everywhere else and may still see a lackluster start. Moving down a tad, we have Masahiro Tanaka and the Yankees moving into Angels Stadium. Tanaka has been hit around lately, but has also shown some extreme dominance in the same time frame. He moves into an extreme pitcher park and faces one of the worst teams in the league without Mike Trout. Since Trout has been out, the Angels have ranked 23rd against righties with a .296 wOBA and a 23.6% K rate. Tanaka is honestly just bad this year and it doesn't make sense. He's a great pitcher. He's either battling an injury or working through some bad luck. On a slate like this, I'm willing to target a cheap Tanaka in hopes of him finding his form. The Yankees have been putting it all together and here's to hoping Tanaka can join the crew. While I wouldn't touch Tanaka in cash games with a 10-foot pole on most slates, this is not most slates.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.44

Ya, no surprise. This guy is a different animal at the position and is going to be the best raw play on most days. Today is certainly one of them. Alex Meyer may be pitching well as of late, but he's not that good of a pitcher. He's still allowing a .329 combined wOBA and has allowed over a homer per 9. We still don't know if he's going to continue producing at his current rate. Over the last 2 years, he has been atrocious with a .411 wOBA. I'm willing to bet he's somewhere in the middle. This Yankees team is hitting extremely well and I would expect that to keep up here. Sanchez has been better against righties since the beginning of his career, sporting a .423 wOBA since 2015. Angels Stadium is a lot bigger than Yankee Stadium, but is a bit more friendly for righties than lefties.  He has far more power than anyone at the position and if you have the money to spend, he's great in all formats. If you are paying up for Strasburg and you need to pay down for your bats, Sanchez is not a must.

Welington Castillo FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 4.79 DK - 3.69

Mike Pelfrey is still riding his BABIP luck train, which is going to come crashing down any start now. This is certainly a good one, facing the Orioles in Guaranteed Rate Field. Formerly U.S. Cellular, Guaranteed Rate is a hitter-friendly park (top 10). Pelfrey was one of the absolute worst pitchers of 2016, allowing a 376 combined wOBA in over 150 sad innings. He gave up a 34% hard contact rate and basically, did nothing well. At 33 years old, he's not getting any better. The Orioles have been pretty sluggish as of late, but we all know the type of fire they have when they get going. Castillo is good against both righties and lefties and has a lot of power for a position that lacks it. He's holding a .329 wOBA against righties this season and has 3 homers in less than 100 at-bats. Castillo is nowhere near the play Sanchez is, but the price reflects that.

Cheap - Francisco Cervelli

First Base

Jose Abreu FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.46 DK - 8.76

While we have the Orioles as one of the top offenses of the night, the opposing White Sox are not too far behind. They face off with Wade Miley, who sported a .360 wOBA and allowed 22 homers to righties in 2016. He's done more of the same this season and I don't see any reason to expect anything different. He's in Guaranteed Rate Field, which is similar to Camden Yards in terms of HR's. Jose Abreu is the beating heart of this order and that is especially true against lefties. He has a .478 wOBA this season against lefties, which is insane, even with the high BABIP. Abreu is one of the top R/L hitters in the MLB and isn't priced like it at 1B. He should end up being relatively low owned, as the Red Sox and Chris Davis will likely hold a lot of it. This entire White Sox order is very interesting. We have so many offenses on this slate with potential, so they may go overlooked. We know they have the power and speed to pay off in stacks and this is a pitcher that suits quite a few of these guys well. Abreu in particular is a fantastic play in both cash games and tournaments.

Chris Davis FD 3700 DK 4300
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.24 DK - 9.07

It seems like Chris Davis has been horrible, but he has 14 homers and is holding a .330+ wOBA against both righties and lefties. He is still striking out almost 40% of the time, which is just insane. Fortunately, there aren't many worse at getting K's than Mike Pelfrey gave up a .391 wOBA to lefties in 2016 and somehow managed to get 70 innings against them. Davis has been hitting homers for years now and you can chalk him up for 35 before the season starts. He's well on his way and sees one of his absolute best match-ups of the entire season. I tend to target Davis against guys who don't strike anyone out, as Davis is potent when putting the bat on the ball. He still has a ton of risk and in cash games, I slightly lean Jose Abreu. In tournaments, however, Davis is always one of the more likely candidates to hit 2 HR in a game.

Mitch Moreland FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.1
Hanley Ramirez FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.31 DK - 10.31

This Philly @ Boston is currently holding a very suspicious 10.5 over/under, putting the Red Sox implied team total over 6. They are at home in Fenway Park, whey they seem to hit the ball like crazy. The Phillies bring in Jerad Eickhoff, a young right-hander with a ton of issues. He's always been bad against lefties and this year is no different at a .361 wOBA. He's not as bad against righties, but has given up some homers and is nothing to be scared of. The Red Sox do have 2 guys to choose from here and both are kind of similar. Because of the handedness, Moreland should be in the 4 spot and will be a bit more popular. He matches up better on paper and is a bit more expensive. Hanley should fly a bit under the radar and he always has 2 HR upside in Fenway Park.

Cheap - Tommy Joseph, Trey Mancini

Second Base

Daniel Murphy FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.49

Mike Foltynewicz used to be a guy we would heavily target with both righties and lefties. Those days are over, as Folty has definitely improved his pitching. However, he is still just as bad as ever against lefties. He's posted a .342 wOBA so far and has allowed 9 homers in 50 innings. The lefties in this Nationals lineup are very much in play and may end up being far too low owned because of the price. Daniel Murphy, as we all know, is one of the top hitters in the league against right-handed pitching. In 2016, he posted a .419 wOBA and a crazy 1.010 OPS. Murphy is going to cost you a pretty penny on both sites, but could end up being very worth it. Murphy has more upside than anyone at the position and if you have excess funds, he is safe as well in cash games.

Rougned Odor FD 3100 DK 3400
Opponent - HOU (Musgrove) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.89

Brian Dozier could have been here and he's definitely safer than a guy like Rougned Odor. I just wanted to touch on a few different guys and look a bit cheaper. The Astros host the Rangers and toss Jose Musgrove on the mound. Musgrove has struggled this season, allowing a .354 combined wOBA and 9 homers in 50 innings. Minute Maid Park is pretty neutral for lefties, but does play + for righties. Rougned Odor is definitely struggling to start the season, but it's clear he's going to turn it around. He does still have 9 homers against righties, so it could be going much worse. He hit 30 last year and you can expect an uptick in production as we enter the 2nd half of the season. Odor is always more of a tournament play and the price on both sites reflect that. If you need a punt on either site, wait until lineups come out and look for a guy that is moved up in the order.

Cheap - Taylor Motter

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Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.55 DK - 10.18

Even with Foltynewicz being much worse against lefties, he is an average pitcher against righties (.303 wOBA). He's nothing to be afraid of and Trea Turner is plenty of a hitter for the task. Turner prefers righties, sporting a career wOBA of .372. He has a rare combo of speed and power that matched by VERY few. This Nationals team is one that can be stacked on a daily basis, as Turner is so good at getting on base and the trio of Murphy, Harper, and Zimmerman are masters at driving in runs. If Turner is able to get on base, he's likely stealing 2nd, maybe 3rd, and having a good shot of getting a run scored. His upside is huge and while his price matches it, his ownership may fall because of it. If you are able to afford Turner, he is certainly the top cash game option at the SS position.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.67 DK - 10.15

With the Red Sox holding an implied team total over 6, you have to take notice. Xander Bogaerts will be in the heart of the order and hopefully in the middle of the action. As we've mentioned, the Red Sox are facing off with Jerad Eickhoff, who is a young righty with a long way to go. Vegas thinks he's going to have a lot of trouble in Fenway and it makes sense. This offense is extremely lethal and one that can put together 7 hits in a row with ease. Bogaerts is the Sox best all-around hitter, holding a .320 AVG against both righties and lefties. He holds a .371 wOBA against righties and has done a good job of getting some power lately. if you can't afford Turner and want some upside at the position, Bogaerts is a great way to go.

Cheap - Erick Aybar

Third Base

Miguel Sano FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.31 DK - 9.92

Wow, Yovani Gallardo is horrible against righties. He currently holds a .407 against the bunch and has allowed 8 homers in just over 30 innings. Remember, this is with half of his games in the spacious Safeco Field. He moves into the neutral/+ Target Field, where Miguel Sano loves to hit. Sano has been one of the best hitters in baseball this season. He has 15 homers and holds a .416 wOBA against right-handers. This is going to be one of the premier power hitters in the MLB for a long time. He's priced up on both sites, but clearly worth it if you can afford him. Gallardo has been so astronomically bad, though his BABIP is just .12 over the league average. He's walking over 4 batters per 9 innings and striking out just 6. Miguel Sano is one of the top options on the slate and my pick for HR of the night.

Manny Machado FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.38 DK - 10.32

Third base is definitely a spot I'm looking to pay up at. Manny Machado is even cheaper than Miguel Sano and is in just as good of a match-up. We'll touch on Pelfrey a bit more later and we already have gone over him for the most part, so there's not much else to say. He's going to regress like crazy and I want to be on every offense he faces everytime he starts. He's one of the worst pitchers in the game and the Orioles are great candidates to set him straight. Manny Machado has definitely struggled this year, but is one of the more promising young guys in the game and will more than certainly figure it out. He held a .359 wOBA against righties in 2016 and belted an astounding 32 home runs. Manny Machado is about as good of a play as Sano and I can't blame you for going either way.

Cheap - Matt Davidson, Maikel Franco

Outfield

Nelson Cruz FD 4400 DK 5100
Opponent - MIN (Mejia) Park - @MIN
FD - 5.97 DK - 4.51

Nelson Cruz against a lefty? Yes, please. Cruz is one of the most well-renown lefty mashers in the game and has been so for a very long time. He's held a .400+ wOBA for 3 straight years against lefties and will likely be on his way to another similar year. He faces Adalberto Mejia, a young lefty without much potential FanGraphs did a post on him, which concluded 1 decent pitch, the fastball. His changeup is horrible and the reason he has struggled against righties to such a big degree (.367 wOBA). Target Field is rather neutral for righties, but a much smaller park than his home, Safeco Field. When Cruz is facing a lefty, he is one of the leading candidates to hit an HR on the night That rings true tonight and Cruz is a guy you want exposure to if you can afford it.

Seth Smith FD 2800 DK 3800 
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.78 DK - 8.93
Mark Trumbo FD 3600 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.69 DK - 8.87

Mike Pelfrey has a .240 BABIP, so you can basically throw away everything he has done so far this season. His xFIP (true ERA) is actually worse against lefties this year, even though he allowed a .394 wOBA to them in 2016. The regression is going to come like crazy for Pelfrey and I want to be all over it. If you look at the top MLB DFS guys cash game lineups, I can guarantee they will have a few Orioles. The general public is starting to buy into Mike Pelfrey as an average pitcher and it may drive ownership down. This could very well be a situation where Pelfrey has gotten clocked in each of his last 2 starts and the Orioles end up almost 50% owned. Because of variance, they will be closer to 20%. Both Seth Smith and Mark Trumbo hit righties better and held .380+ wOBA's over the past 2 seasons. Trumbo obviously has a bit more power, but either of them can hit HR's in this park and both belong in your stack. All in all, the Orioles are probably my favorite team on the slate in both formats.

Avisail Garcia FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.09 DK - 8.01

This is a guy we have avoided for the most part as his nearly .500 BABIP has everything to do with his success. Still, he is a really good hitter against lefties. This is the first time I'll be targeting Garcia all season long, so let's hope he can make up for all of those "lucky" bombs he has hit so far. He holds a .483 wOBA against lefties right now, but honestly, it can be ignored. When you consider the BABIP, his true wOBA is going to be somewhere around .380, which is still great. We touched on Wade Miley earlier and he's pretty cut and dry. He's a lefty who is dominant against lefties and struggles against righties. This game has a 10 over/under and will be the most heavily targeted from a DFS perspective. Garcia may be on a lucky spell to start the season, but he can hit lefties and makes for a great play in all formats here.

Cheap - Brian Goodwin, Franchy Cordero, Melky Cabrera

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