Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/11/17

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Pitcher

Chris Archer FD 11000 DK 12200
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @TB
FD - 40.52 DK - 26.6

Welcome to Sunday baseball! We have a very nice slate on our hands, with plenty of pitching and plenty of offenses to target. We start off with Chris Archer, facing the Athletics at home in Tropicana Field. Archer has been phenomenal so far this season, striking out more batters than ever (11 per 9) and limiting the big inning(s). The crazy part about it all is that he's getting a bit unlucky. Lefties, who hold a .323 wOBA this season, also sport a .344 BABIP. You can expect his numbers to get better against lefties and for his ERA to match his SIERA. He's also been better at home over the course of his career, with a .268 wOBA and 12.31 K/9. He faces off with the Oakland Athletics, who are easily one of the most underwhelming lineups in baseball. Sure, they have plenty of power in the likes of Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso, and Ryon Healy. Those guys also hold some of the highest K rates in baseball and are simply boom or bust hitters. You then get into guys like Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, and Matt Joyce. A bunch of guys who aren't very good at hitting the baseball. All in all, the A's strikeout 24.5% of the time and hold the 8th lowest wOBA in the MLB against righties. While a clean slate is rare from Archer, you can expect 8 strikeouts at a minimum with the upside for 12 and a CGSO. He was once a guy you could never trust in cash games, but I would say that label is far gone.

Carlos Carrasco FD 9800 DK 11500
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @CLE
FD - 35.43 DK - 23.37

If you need to save some funds or aren't in love with Chris Archer, Carlos Carrasco is a great option. He, like Archer, has been very impressive to start the season. He's holding a combined .265 wOBA while striking out nearly a batter per inning. He's a true ace in terms of skill and you can count on him giving you at least 6 -7 innings. As a note, he's on extended rest due to rain and should have no issue going well over 100 pitches. He faces the White Sox, at home in Progressive Field. The White Sox are absolutely horrible and they can't hit righties. They have sported the 25th best wOBA at .295 while striking out 24% of the time. Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier can definitely do some damage, but often strikeout 6 times and hit a single or two combined. The top and bottom of the order is filled with K-heavy, low upside hitters. Anderson, Sanchez, and L. Garcia all K 28+% of the time and have less than 10 HR combined. The White Sox can occasionally be scrappy and annoying to a pitcher, but more often than not just lay on their side and get bullied. While Archer is still the preferred option against the A's, there is nothing wrong with Carrasco in any format.

On the later slate, Max Scherzer is the top cash game option. Robbie Ray is a close 2nd and has a ton of upside in tournaments. James Paxton and Hyun-Jin Ryu are also interesting in tournaments at different price points. Make sure to keep an eye out for a pitch count on Paxton.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @LAD
FD - 11.06 DK - 8.3

Catcher, as always, remains one of the weaker positions on the slate. Fortunately, there is no bad position. There are a few catchers with some safety and a few with som great upside. Grandal is the best of both worlds. He's undoubtedly one of the best hitting catchers in the game, posting a .363 wOBA against righties in his last full season. Grandal is a switch-hitter and prefers swinging from the left side, where he will face Tim Adleman. Adleman hasn't been horrible over his short career, allowing a .322 wOBA and 10 homers to lefties in 53 innings. He allows a lot of hard contact and faces a top 3 offense in baseball against righties. Grandal is very cheap on both sites for his skill and should end up being the most popular catcher on the slate. He makes a lot of sense for both cash games and tournaments.

Brian McCann FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.54 DK - 7.96

Here we are again. It seems like the Astros have been facing a bad pitcher every night for the last 2 months. It continues again today with Jesse Chavez. While Chavez isn't considered as one of the gas cans, he isn't far off. He allowed .364 wOBA agaainst lefties in 2016 and followed it up with a strong .343 BABIP. Minute Maid Park is meant for hitters and you have to think the Astros have a big night here. Without lineups coming out, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis should be in the 5/6 hole. Against a righty, McCann is the top way to go. He's been swinging a good stick for the 'Stros and is a much better pure hitter against righties. However, Evan Gattis has the ability to hit 2 HR without the blink of an eye, so don't feel the need to shy away from either of them. With Grandal as the chalk cash game option, McCannn deserves plenty of appeal.

First Base

Hanley Ramirez FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.81 DK - 10.7

Hanley has not been good. Plain and simple. He's missing pitches he usually hits and flying out on balls he usually puts over the fence. With that being said, we all know the regression is coming. He's still hitting the ball hard and should start to find some holes along with the rest of this Red Sox offense. If it's going to happen, this is as good of a spot as ever. Daniel Norris, a young lefty, is sure to struggle here against the Sox. Norris has allowed a .341 wOBA to righties so far this year and when you combined that with a 42% hard contact rate allowed, bad things will happen. That looks like a recipe for the green monster to be peppered all night long. While that would be great, I'll just take a blast or two. Hanle is much better against lefties (.460 wOBA in 2016) and in Fenway Park, has as much HR upside as anyone on the slate. His price is fair across the board and should be one of the more popular options at the position.

Matt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @STL
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.48

The Cardinals travel back home and take on the Philadelphia Phillies and Aaron Nola. Aaron Nola was a guy with a lot of hype just last year, which he handled very well. Nola is a good young pitcher and the prospect of him having a fruitful career is definitely there. He's also going to struggle against lefties until he can fix a few pitches. He's allowed a .322 wOBA over the course of his career to lefties and this year has been a bit lucky. This Cardinals team is one of the scrappier around and while the power isn't always there, they do a good job of tagging some hits together and scoring a few. Matt Carpenter is the heartbeat of the entire order. He has held a .391 wOBA against righties since 2015 and is easily one of the top hitters in the game against righties. He's a very safe option here and if you are playing cash games, feel free. In tournaments, I would rather pay for Hanley or a punt.

Second Base

Daniel Murphy FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Bibens-Dirkx) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.87

While we haven't touched on the Washington Nationals just yet, they are easily a top offense of the slate. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is a horrible 32-year-old journeyman without much to offer. He's been belted around the minor leagues and there is 0 reason to expect anything else. Daniel Murphy is easily the top play on the board at 2B and is one of my top priorities after pitcher. Murphy is all-around elite against righties, posting a league-high .419 wOBA. He's just as good as Harper against righties and deserves to be treated so. His price is fair on both sites and you shouldn't have trouble paying up if you want to. As for what to expect from Bibens-Dirkx, not much. He's going to go 3 or 4 innings and probably give up 2 or 3 runs. After that, we will see an average bullpen try their best to slow down the likes of Murphy and Harper. This Nationals team is very exciting tonight and Murphy is all but in play.

Ian Happ FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.91

After Murphy, 2B is probably one of the weaker around. There are definitely plenty of guys with upside, but not many you can count on to produce in this match-up consistently. We did see the wind blowing out 100 MPH yesterday in Wrigley, so I thought I would mentioned these Cubs against Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela is one oof my favorite young arms, so you won't catch me targeting him much on the road. However, Wrigley Field is basically the same thing as Coors Fielwhenhn the wind starts approaching 20 MPH. As of now, it's blowing out 16 MPH. If that continues, the Cubs lineup is in play for just that reason. Senzatela has been very average on the road and the Cubs should be able to do some damage. Ian Happ has been greta since coming up, poriting  a .381 wOBA so far against right-handers. Javy Baez is in play as well here, especially if the wind is blowing out as he gets a lot of his outs through the air. The Cubs as a whole move into a top stak of the day if the wind maintains over 15 MPH.

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Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.91 DK - 10.34

The Red Sox are certainly one of our favorite offenses on this slate. Daniel Norris hasn't been good and has been struggling against both lefties and righties as of late. This Red Sox team is obviously one of the more dangerous around and in Fenway Park, they are lethal. Xander Bogaerts, in particular, is a very solid cash game option with a strong floor and ceiling. Bogaerts has been the best hitter on the Red Sox this season, hitting both lefties and righties for a .331 wOBA and .371 against lefties. He's hitting the ball hard to all parts of the field and is holding a 24.6% line drive rate. Bogaerts has plenty of power, hitting 21 homers just last season. Daniel Norris isn't good and the Red Sox are very good. Thats what it comes down to. Vegas has them implied for the 2nd most runs on the slate and I have to agree. Once Norris is out of the game, there is a good chance of the Sox seeing a poor long reliever. All in all, Bogaerts is one of the safest options on the board at SS.

Jordy Mercer FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Locke) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.28 DK - 8.11

Jordy Mercer against a lefty, you know the drill. Mercer has been a guy you target against lefties for years now and he usually comes through. He's sported a .359 wOBA since 2016 and actually has some legitimate power against them. He faces Jeff Locke, who used to be one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball. He's since turned that around, but still isn't great. He allowed a .379 wOBA to righties in 2016 and will start to see plenty of regression this season. Locke is currently sporting a .182 BABIP, which is one of the lowest in all of baseball. You can guarantee that Jeff Locke is going to have some rough starts very soon. The Pirates could certainly be one of them. They hit lefties well and have the power to get damage done. With Bogaerts as th top cash game options, Mercer comes in as a close 2nd and can be used in cash if you need to save some funds. All in all, SS is pretty interesting and should have spread-out ownership.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas FD 3100 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Lamet) Park - @SD
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.77

Dinelson Lamet is a pretty solid prospect for the Padres. He strikes out a bunch of guys and has a problem with the  HR ball. He's also extremely young and just entering the major leagues. He's  going to have his hiccups and we say him last start give up 9 earned runs. He faces off with a Royals team in Petco Park, which actually gives Lamet some GPP appeal. However, you have to like Mike Moustakas in the spot. Petco Park is actually a + coming from Kauffman Stadium, where lefties have to hit it a mile. Moustakas is far better against righties, holding a .361 wOBA over the last few years. Remember, this is a guy who held a .417 wOBA in his best season before injury. Dinelson Lamet is expected to have a few hiccups as he grows into a starting pitcher, with one of them hopefully coming to the moose man. Third base isn;t as great as some other positions, but has plenty of upside as always.

Wilmer Flores FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Garcia) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.42

Wilmer Flores is one of those guys who flys under the radar against lefties, but I have no clue why. If you go look at his FanGraphs page, it looks like an HOF'er against lefties. .451 wOBA. 23% line drive. 1.093 ISO. Like I said, REALLY GOOD against lefties. He faces off with Jaime Garcia and the Braves in hitter-friendly SunTrust Park. Jaime Garcia has 1 big problem and it's the HR ball. He will do his best to limit in at home, but will ultimately fail. He's sported a .341 wOBA against righties for a few years now and is on his way down. He's already allowed 6 homers to righties this year, which should give you an idea of how it's going for Jaime. Flores is fairly priced around the industry and makes for a strong play in all formats at a position that doesn't offer much in terms of safety. Flores makes for a great play in all formats and I can get him behind him in a mini Mets stack as well.

Outfield

Bryce Harper FD 4600 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Bibens-Dirkx) Park - @WSH
FD - 14.62 DK - 11.24

If you are forced to pick between Harper and a pitcher, you go pitcher. It's a safer long-term strategy and one you will enjoy far more often. With that being said, if you can afford Harper, do it. He;s the best OF on the day and faces Austin Bibens-Dirkx, who is simply bad. He's been running around the minors for 10 years and is finally getting his time to shine. Well, I don't know about shine. He's doing whatever he does. The Nationals are going to score on him and there's a very good Chance Bryce Harper is a big reason why. He's demolishing righties as always and it seems like the guy hits a homer every time he is supposed to. This is one of the best match-ups he can possibly have and I don't see him being highly owned. With so many expensive pitchers on the slate, most people will pay up there and look to save on some bats. If you're looking to be contrarian, there is no better way than Bryce Harper.

Josh Reddick FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.45
George Springer FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.08

We haven't touched too much on these Astros, but did touch on them at the C position with Brian McCann. We now take a look a the 1/2 OF Duo of George Springer and Josh Reddick. I could have even thrown Carlos Betran into the mix. As already mentioned, Jesse Chavez isn't very good. He's been in the majors since 2008 and still has the vibe of a guy that can't find permanent footing. He's allowed a .351 wOBA since last year and both of these guys are in play for all formats. Reddick has been phenomenal against righties for years now, posting a .386 wOBA since 2015. As for Springer, he's admittedly a bit riskier and expensive, though the payoff has a lot of potential. Both of these guys are going to cost you some cash, but they have a ton of upside and have one of the highest implied team totals on the night.

Chris Young FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.98
Mookie Betts FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.6 DK - 11.9

When a lefty is on the mound against the Red Sox, you can first take a look at Chris Young. He is the lefty specialist of the team and will always be in the top of the order against them. He;s always been a lefty killer and has posted a .368 wOBA against them as of late. He's way too cheap across the industry and is probably the top way to save money. He's almost a must on FanDuel in cash and makes for a great play everywhere else. As for Betts, he's way more expensive and a bit riskier. However, he has a whole lot of upside and will be one of the last popular Red Sox bats. He has hit lefties well (.364 wOBA) and while it's not clear if he's going to be a splits guy, he has power against both handednesses in Fenway. This Red Sox offense may not be flying under the radar tonight, but they are one of the safest offenses to target. All in all, the Red Sox hold a 5.38 implied team total ad come in as some of the top plays on the slate. Get some exposure.

 

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