Welcome back to the start of another weekend in daily fantasy baseball. If you have been riding the hot streak with us here at DFSR your bankroll thanks you and if you are new to the site, welcome aboard. We have one afternoon game today between the Rockies and Cubs but for the article, we will turn our attention to the 14-game main slate on Friday.
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Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CLE
FD - 41.56 DK - 27.4
Friday night starts with Corey Kluber who is the top ranked pitcher from a raw points perspective and it's not even close. The Indians have opened as -260 favorites as they welcome the Chicago White Sox to town for a weekend series. If you have been living under a rock this season and just plugging in the optimizer lineups, well, we got your back. If you have been listening to the live streams, podcasts, and YouTube videos as well you would have also learned that targeting the White Sox vs. right-handed pitching is a +EV investment. While they lead the league in hitting against southpaws they rank second to last against righties with a .293 wOBA, 80 wRC+ and 23.7% strikeout rate. If we are going to target mediocre pitchers vs. them(ie. Odorizzi last night), then we have to be licking our chops when an elite arm like Kluber is on the bump. He has given up some home runs this season(17% HR/FB rate) but is currently posting a career high strikeout rate(10.6 K/9) and his xFIP is a full run lower than his 4.36 ERA. Even at a season-high salary on DraftKings, he is safe in all formats tonight.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @STL
FD - 33.15 DK - 21.85
After Kluber, there are some guys who are big favorites as of Thursday night but I just don't trust any of them in cash games as an SP2 on DraftKings. Not that Wacha can be completely trusted but the thing with him is he comes at an excellent discount and sits as a -180 favorite. He has given up six earned runs in two of his last three starts and has failed to get out of the fifth inning in either of those three but there are signs tonight could be the night he breaks out of the slump. His biggest issue is the walk(3.50 BB/9) but the good news is that the Phillies walk under 8% of the time vs. right-handed pitching while striking out 23% of the time. That gives Wacha's already above average K rate(8.8 K/9) a nice boost. He is in GPP only territory on FanDuel but makes a great SP2 option with upside on DraftKings if you are planning on loading up on bats.
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @SF
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.87
I was going to go with Gary Sanchez in the top catcher spot tonight but don't like how he has moved down into the six-hole over the last two games. Until the price adjusts with the move, I would only use him in tournaments. For safety, there is no catcher who fits the profile better than Buster Posey. He is having one of the best starts to his career with an elite .348/.440/.522 slash line and comes into tonight after a day of rest and will look to extend his nine-game hitting streak. As you will see in my pitcher's article later today, I am being a bit hedgy(not sure if a real word) as I think Santana makes a decent GPP pitcher facing a Giants team that sits dead last in hitting vs. right-handed pitchers. Like I said, it's a GPP play only as he is high priced and the game is currently only a pick em. Posey is the much safer option as he has proven his elite status year after year in the big leagues.
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 3.51 DK - 2.69
If you are a believer in ErvinSantana and will be avoiding the high cost of Posey, dip down into the value pool tonight. Enter Jason Castro on the other side of the field. You won't likely to see in the optimizer tonight as it's a lefty/lefty matchup but looking at the numbers he has been slightly better vs. southpaws this year and Matt Moore is not a good pitcher(5.22 ERA/5.12 xFIP) meaning Castro should see some right-handed arms in the bullpen. He isn't going to provide a ton of upside, rather some nice salary relief and the good news is that he comes in with hits in nine straight games.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.29 DK - 10.61
As he is almost every night, Goldy sits top three in the overall raw points projections(1st at first base) and gets another favorable matchup to build on his All-Star first half of the season. While he crushed lefties last year it has been a different story in 2017 with just a .330 wOBA but against right-handed pitching, he has absolutely raked with a .444 wOBA and 173 wRC+. Now he faces Zack Davies who struggles to miss bats with his sub-90mph fastball that he throws 60% of the time for a very low 7.7% swinging strike rate. What makes the matchup even better is the fact Davies has shown reverse splits this season giving up a .382 wOBA to right-handed bats with a 32% hard contact rate. Goldy is my top overall play once again today.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @STL
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.48
Moving Carpenter into the leadoff spot did appear to have given him a spark as he has now hit a home run in both games since the move. Too bad for Cardinal fans it hasn't kicked the rest of the hitters in gear but that just means Carpenter makes more of one-off play than a part of a Cards stack. DraftKings has caught on quickly and bumped his price up making him a GPPonlyl play but on FanDuel he still sits in the low $3K range where he is in play in all formats. He has the matchup in his favor tonight facing Jeremy Hellickson who is striking almost no one out(3.8 K/9 rate!) and comes in with an xFIP of 5.88 that is 1.3 runs higher than his ERA. He has held lefties to a .205 average but is running very hot when looking at the low .178 BABIP so we can most definitely expect some regression and I think it start tonight with Carpenter.
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.95
From a PTS/$ perspective, at least on FanDuel, Matt Adams is clearly the play at the position. He is currently 0 for 2 on Thursday night vs. the Phillies but since joining the Braves on May 21, Adams has put up a .377 wOBA, 134 wRC+ with six home runs and 15 RBI. Pretty good numbers for a guy in the punt range on Fanduel tonight. Now he gets to face the Dark Knight Matt Harvey who doesn't deserve the superhero tag any longer with the way he is pitching this season. He is striking out under seven batters per nine and has already given 13 home runs in his first 11 starts for a disgusting 20.3% HR/FB rate and 35.6% hard contact rate, both of which are career highs by a mile. Adams has been a welcome site for the Braves who appeared in deep trouble when Freddie Freeman went to the disabled list. Roll him out in all formats tonight.
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.98
If we could just roster Dozier against left-handed pitching I would be game every time. Wait a minute. We can, it's daily fantasy baseball. It's players like this that made the transition from season-long to daily so easy. In season-long it's a tough call on draft day whether to pay the price for a player like Dozier with big handedness splits, especially vs. lefties as the majority of at-bats come against right-handed pitching. In DFS it is easy, just don't use him vs. righties unless facing a garbage pitcher. The best part about the splits players is that they usually have a lower salary in most spots as the sites don't adjust fast enough for splits on a daily basis. This brings us to tonight's matchup vs. Matt Moore who has really struggled this year walking over three and a half batters per nine and enters tonight with a 5.22 ERA and 5.12 xFIP. Great news for Dozier who is once again destroying southpaws to the tune of a .424 wOBA and 169 wRC+.
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @TB
FD - 3.09 DK - 2.47
Tonight's man in black is Chad Pinder of the A's who comes in as a terrific punt play with upside if he is back in the two-hole where he has spent each of the last six games. He has struggled with the average(.227) and strikeouts(29.6% K rate) like any young hitter early in his career but the good news is that he has shown a nice boost in power this season. He enters tonight with a .345 wOBA and 121 wRC+ with seven home runs and 16 RBI in 33 games played. If you are loading up with Kluber and some high-end bats, Pinder makes an excellent salary relief play in all formats.
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Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.77 DK - 10.37
As of Thursday evening, my gameplan is to roll on of the two listed shortstops in almost all of my lineups. If you can afford him, get Trea Turner into your lineups as he continues to heat up at the top of the Nats lineup. He picked up three hits last night with a walk and with his explosive baserunning, stole three bases and scored two runs. He now has hits in five straight and eight of his last nine games and is finally paying the bills in fantasy. Tonight he faces Andrew Cashner who is arguably one of the worst pitchers on the slate with his 5.45 xFIP and sub 6% swing and miss rate. Feast!
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.87 DK - 9.51
If you can't quite fit Turner in your lineups, I love the pivot down to Bogaerts tonight in cash games as he has been very consistent all season despite providing much upside. He is currently hitting .324 and getting on base at a very high .381 clip which is giving him a ton of opportunities to score runs. The biggest problem is not him but the offense around him that is showing minimal power in the first year dealing without Big Papi. I look for Bogaerts and the Red Sox to take advantage of a great matchup vs. a struggling Jordan Zimmerman who is not missing bats(5.7 K/9) and is giving up a 38% hard contact rate and 17% HR/FB rate. I take back what I said about Cashner. Zimmerman could honestly be the worst pitcher on the slate. Don't be fooled by his rebound outing last time out. It was against the White Sox who rank second to last in hitting vs. right-handed pitching. Roll out Bogaerts in all formats tonight.
Opponent - SEA (Gaviglio) Park - @SEA
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.19
Great news Jays fans and fantasy owners! Donaldson is back in his MVP form after returning from the disabled list on May 26. In 11 games he has hit six home runs with an eye-popping .460 wOBA, 194 wRC+, and .439 Isolated Power number. The only thing that hasn't gone his way is the fact no one seems to be on base when he gets his hits. It will come as the Jays are starting to heat up with everyone healthy and back in the lineup. Look for Donaldson to stay hot in a plus matchup vs. Sam Gaviglio who is nothing more than an average arm who finally made it to the majors after six years in the minors. So far this season he is striking out less than 5.5 batters per nine and giving up a 21.7% HR/FB rate. Even in a pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, Donaldson is in play in all formats.
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.64
I am not exactly sure how the chalk(Thanks to James on yesterday's podcast for clarifying where the phrase chalk came from) will fall on Friday night but I feel Sano will be lower owned than Donaldson making him an excellent GPP pivot in the top tier. He is well on his way to crushing his career highs across the board as he enters tonight with a .306/.411/.618 slash line with 21 homes runs, 46 RBI and 38 runs scored. One of the major reasons he has seen a huge jump in the power numbers has been the increase in hard contact to 51.9% which trails only the Tigers Alex Avila and J.D. Martinez among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances. The splits have not mattered either as he has a wOBA over .420 and wRC+ over 165 vs. both right-hand and left-handed pitching. Like Donaldson, the park is a downgrade is negative but the matchup is too much to pass up on Friday night.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.43 DK - 7.35
The season started very slow for Flores who just .171 in April before going on the disabled list with an infection in his knee. Since returning healthy on May 3, he has been on absolute fire for the Mets with a .405 wOBA and 156 wRC+ in 29 games. He has also shown some pop in his bat with three home runs while driving in 13 and scoring 12 times. If he is in the top six of the batting order, Flores is an elite PTS/$ value play vs. Julio Teheran and the Braves in a terrific hitters environment.
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.31 DK - 11.66
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.6 DK - 10.09
I am going to go ahead and start by clarifying that Benintendi is not in play on DraftKings at his ridiculous price approaching the $5K range. Someone at DraftKings got really horny with the pricing after his three-homer output in two games on Sunday and Tuesday. On FanDuel, he is nice value play hitting behind Betts in the order and getting one of the best matchups of the day. For Betts, it has been a bit of a struggle to start the year as he is hitting just .259 but he has shown the power upside with nine home runs, 33 RBI and 33 runs scored. Even better news is that lots of fantasy owners appear getting impatient with Betts which could open a window of ownership opportunity in tournaments. The salary has finally started to come down as well(was mid $5K on DK last week) which puts him in a great spot for a cash game play on both sites.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.77 DK - 9.06
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.43
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.24 DK - 7.11
Sticking with the team approach in the outfield, I love the Mets as one-off's or together as a stack tonight. Conforto would be my top choice if you are looking for a cash game play as he has been the most consistent this season with a .425 wOBA and 170 wRC+ thanks in large part to the big boost in power this season. In half the games, he has already surpassed his career high in home runs with 14 and runs scored with 40. Jay Bruce, while not safe in cash games with a high K rate and low average, is an excellent GPP option who comes with big upside with 15 home runs and 40 RBI on the season. Granderson is more of a salary relief punt play as he has really struggled this season with a low .283 wOBA but still has a little pop in his bat with five home runs. It's more about the matchup today as the Mets face the Braves and Julio Teheran who has taken a nosedive in 2017. He has seen the K rate drop by over a strikeout per nine and has lost all command of the strike zone as he sits with a career-high 3.8 BB/9 rate. He hasn't just walked guys either. he has been hit hard with a 15% hR/FB rate and enters tonight with a 5.40 ERA and 5.41 xFIP. Mets, Mets, Mets.
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View Comments
What about a Detroit stack Cabrera, Kinsler, Martinez, Castellanos, vs Johnson & Boston?
yeah that Benitendi price being more expensive than Betts on DK is absurd