Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview - Pocono 400

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Pocono 400

Pocono Raceway - Long Pond, PA
Track - 2.5 Mile Tri-Oval Superspeedway
6°-14° of Banking in the Corner

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy NASCAR. Let's recap last week before moving on to Pocono. Last week's win was the 83rd of Jimmie Johnson's Hall of Fame career, tying him with Cale Yarborough for sixth on the all-time list. That puts him just one win behind Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Allison and just 10 back of Jeff Gordon for third.

Last week's win was the 83rd of Jimmie Johnson's Hall of Fame career, tying him with Cale Yarborough for sixth on the all-time list. That puts him just one win behind Darrell Waltrip and Bobby Allison and just 10 back of Jeff Gordon for third. Enjoy it up there in third while you can Jeff, Jimmie is coming.

This week the Monster Energy Cup series travels to Pocono Raceway, better known as the "Tricky Triangle" for its unique setup. As you probably already guessed by the nickname Pocono is made up of three corners and the unique part is that each corner is different from one another. The biggest challenge for the crew chief is working on a setup for the car that balances out and works well in all corners. It is definitely a week to pay close attention to all practices.

For fantasy purposes, it is going to be to balancing act between place differential and dominator points. First of all, there are only 160 laps available to lead and with the new stages and pit strategies, we are most likely going to see multiple drivers lead 20+ laps. Place differential isn't going to be as easy as it appears either. Looking at the cheatsheet and the last three years results, we see that no more than two drivers have finished inside the top 10 who started outside of the top 20. Also, all but once in those six races, at least five drivers who started inside the top 10 finished there. This puts even more emphasis on practice and qualifying so stay tuned for my post practice/qualifying video that I will post at the bottom of this article on Saturday.

 

Let's now take a look at some of the top trends here at Pocono leading up to race weekend.

 

Last Six Winners

• 2016 Spring - Kurt Busch(Started 9th)
• 2016 Fall - Chris Buescher(Started 22nd)*
• 2015 Spring - Martin Truex Jr.(Started 3rd)
• 2015 Fall - Matt Kenseth(Started 7th)
• 2014 Spring - Dale Earnhardt Jr.(Started 8th)
• 2014 Fall - Dale Earnhardt Jr.(Started 9th)

 

Top 5 Track History at Pocono (2 Year)

 

Could this be the site of Dale Earnhardt Jr's first win of his final season? I would say the odds are pretty high as over his last three races here he has two top 5's and a 5.7 average finish. Expand that form one more year and we see he won both races in 2014. You can guarantee that Jr. Nation will be out in flocks this week. Brad Keselowski has been very consistent here lately with three top 5's and a 6.0 average finish in his last four trips to the Tricky Triangle. Matt Kenseth is the only driver in the top 5 when looking at average finish that has a win here over the last two years and also has three top 10's and a 7.8 average finish.

 

 

Top 5 Track History at Pocono (Career)

 

While it's a small sample size to start his career, Kyle Larson has been impressive in his first six races. He finished 5th in his first race back in 2014 and has three top10's and is the only current driver with an average finish below 10. In an even smaller sample size, Ryan Blaney has been excellent here with finishes of 10th and 11th in his rookie season in 2016. Even better, he started 14th and 18th picking up positive place differential in both. After the two young guns, there is the seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson who has won here three times with 11 top 5's and 19 top 10 finishes in 30 career races. Brad  Keselowski and Denny Hamlin round out the top 5 with 11.3 and 12.1 average finishes respectively. Hamlin leads all active drivers with four career wins here at the Tricky Triangle.

 

 

Top 5 at the 2.5 Mile Intermediate Tracks (2 Year)

The 2.5 Mile intermediate tracks include two races here at Pocono and the annual race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Only Kyle Busch has multiple wins at this track type over the last two years but he falls outside the Top 5 when looking at average finish.It is his teammate Matt Kenseth who leads the way with a win, two top 5's, five top 10's, and a 6.7 average finish in his last six races. Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski sit tied with an 8.5 average finish and have four top 10's each.

 

 

Early Week Picks 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($8,500) - This pick is strictly based on track history. Not only did he win both races here in 2014, he has also finished Top 5 in six of the last seven races and Top 10 in nine of the last 11 races at the Tricky Triangle. The price is also very affordable making him one of the top overall plays in all formats.

Kevin Harvick ($9,600) - For the first time since Talladega(five races ago) Kevin Harvick has seen his price dip below $10K. It is actually the second-lowest his salary has been all season. That is not the only reason to like Harvick this week as he comes back with some nice track history. His 42nd place finish in August of 2015(engine failure) drops his average some but he finished fourth and ninth last year and before that 42nd he had finished runner-up in back to back races in June 2015 and August 2014. Take the value and run.

A.J. Allmendinger ($6,900) - It is very tough to pick out a value play at this point in the sub $7K range and I feel some people will be looking at Buescher with his win here. Don't be fooled as that race was won after caution flew with Buescher in the lead while the race was later called due to rain. Dinger hasn't been great here but has a Top 10 and three Top 20's in his last four races here and leads all drivers in this range with Top 20's here for their careers. The value range is going to be very dependent on qualifying this week. Stay tuned.

 

Post Qualifying/Practice Picks Video

 

 

 

 

For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well. 

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.