Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/5/17

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Pitcher

Carlos Martinez FD 10000 DK 12500
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @CIN
FD - 30.71 DK - 20.37

We have an interesting 7-game slate on our hands tonight without any single pitcher or offense that stands out. Ownership will end up being rather spread out, which makes it a very fun slate to play in both cash games and tournaments. At pitcher, you can pay up for either Carlos Martinez, Gio Gonzalez, or Jeff Samardzija. Carlos Martinez is our favorite of the bunch, facing off with the Reds in Great American Ballpark. While Martinez got off to a bit of a rough start, he has certainly turned that around. He's been over 40 FanDuel points in 6 straight and has one of his best match-ups yet tonight. The Reds have ranked in the bottom 1 against lefties in terms of both hard contact rate and park adjusted wOBA. Martinez has sported a .252 wOBA against righties and a .292 against lefties, fitting his peripherals perfectly. He holds and 18% line drive rate and a 29% hard contact rate, which is in the upper tier of starting pitchers. Great American Ballpark may not be the best spot for pitchers, but it's doable. Martinez has pitched well here in the past and it's not like you have a great alternative in a strong park. Martinez is the top cash game and tournament option on both sites and ou can definitely fit him comfortably if you're willing to pay down elsewhere.

Junior Guerra FD 8200 DK 7600
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @MIL
FD - 23.74 DK - 15.79

If you feel the need to pay up for some bats, you can certainly look down to Junior Guerra. Guerra emerged last year as a guy with a lot of promise and I definitely think he will end up being a quality starting pitcher. He has 3 strong pitches and a slider he will rarely throw. This isn't a young guy, either. He left the minors in 2008 and returned in 2012, gathering some valuable experience in the Mexican League. He held both lefties and righties under a .280 wOBA in 2016 and while that may be a bit ambitious to expect, he should sit around .300, which is still VERY good. The Brewers are hosting the San Francisco Giants, who have been a team you tend to stay away from with pitchers over the last few years. This year, not so much. The Giants have ranked dead last in terms of wOBA against righties (.282) and the lineup leaves a lot to be wanted. The bottom 3 (Calixte, Slater, Samardzija) are atrocious and give Guerra a bit more K upside. While nobody on this entire slate is "safe", Guerra is pretty safe for his price and lets you pay up anywhere else you may desire. On DraftKings, Guerra will be concreted as my SP2.

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 9.78 DK - 7.39

The catcher position is always one of the most difficult to figure out. Tonight is no different. Without any single offense standing above the rest, we have no default catcher to target on a team expected to score a million runs. We start off with Brian McCann, who's facing off with Ian Kennedy in Kauffman Stadium. While Kennedy has some pretty solid surface stats this season, a .210 BABIP wipes it all away. He's holding a 5.33 xFIP against righties and is guaranteed to see regression very soon. The Astros are definitely a good team to do just that. They have been a top 3 offense all year long and While Brian McCann hasn't been a huge reason why, he's played his part. He's been effective against lefties (3 HR) and currently has a stupid .190 BABIP, which can only go up. The stadium may not be great for power, but the 'Stros are one of the more promising offenses on the slate and McCann should have at least an RBI opportunity or two. He's cheap enough across the industry and won't force you to pay down anywhere.

Yadier Molina FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.14 DK - 7.26

While Yadier Molina has shown some power out of nowhere this year, it's not why you target him. He's a very safe option on a team that should put up plenty of runs today. Asher Wojciechowski is not good at all and I'm really not too sure why he's even getting another start. He hasn't been that good in the minors and as expected, has been much worse in the majors. The Cardinals are implied to score the must runs on this slate and are one of the top stacks in both cash games and tournaments. Molina will likely be in the 4 spot, where he has been for a couple weeks against right-handers. Molina has held a .343 wOBA against righties over the last 2 seasons and doesn't look to be slowing down, already hitting 4 homers against them this season. Great American Ballpark is a huge upgrade from Busch Stadium and Molina is a fine play in all formats.

First Base

Matt Carpenter FD 3700 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.58

We'll move right into another Cardinals bat here with Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is the heart and soul of this lineup and against righties, he's one of the top bats in all of baseball. He sported a .386 wOBA in 2016  and has kept up so far this season. He now moves into Great American Ballpark, where his wOBA hypothetically shoots way up. Wojciechowski, as we just touched on, is nothing more than a AAA pitcher. He has struggled in the minors and hasn't shown any potential to be good in the majors. As a righty, he's been worse against lefties (.490 wOBA) and in the minors, allowed a 1.81 HR/9. When you play for the Marlins and can't make the rotation, you know how bad you are.  Carpenter is way too cheap on both sites and on DraftKings, you almost have to play him in cash games. The Cardinals are one of the top offenses on the slate and should go a bit under-owned as they always seem to do. Carpenter is far and away the top option in cash and you can make the case in tournaments as well. Personally, Carpenter will be blanketing all of my rosters.

Ryan Zimmerman FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - LAD (Ryu) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.35 DK - 7.92

First base isn't as fruitful as it is on most slates, especially towards the bottom of the pricing tier. If you're able and want to pay up from Matt Carpenter, Ryan Zimmerman is a great way to go. While Hyun-Jin Ryu isn't a bad pitcher, he's nowhere near what we once thought. He's allowed a .340+ wOBA over the last 2 seasons and hasn't shown many reasons to incite any hope. He faces off with one of the toughest offenses around and while they are worse against lefties as a whole, Ryan Zimmerman certainly isn't. While his .526 wOBA so far may be a bit too much to expect, the .410 he has held in the past is very much reliable. He is one of the top hitters in the NL right now and against lefties, you have to give him a long hard look. On DraftKings, I don't see any reason to get off of Matt Carpenter. On FanDuel, you may have some extra salary and Zimmerman has enough upside to pivot, even with the price. The Nationals aren't a team I like very much tonight, though I think a 1-off of Zimmerman or Rendon is a fantastic way to go.

Second Base

Ian Happ FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.86
Javier Baez FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @CHC
FD - 4.36 DK - 3.52

The Cubs aren't an offense we're all over tonight, but they are obviously always in play. They face off with Dan Straily tonight, who has been a very intriguing pitcher this season. While not great, he has been very serviceable and it's definitely been his best season so far. The peripherals aren't showing anything crazy, either. He may have a bit of regression coming against lefties, but nothing to be on the look out for. With that said, he's still Dan Straily, an average right-hander who is good at limiting the big inning. He has actually been worse against righties and the long ball has always been a problem for him. It's just been minimized playing in the humongous Marlins Park. We have 2 guys at 2B for the Cubs, Ian Happ and Javier Baez. They are both very different players and can be used in different formats. Happ, who should be near the top of the order, has immediately made an impact on this Cubs offense. He hit 2 HR's just last night and has already sported a .350+ wOBA against both sides of the plate. He was a 1st round pick just 2 years ago and is expected to stick in the majors. We already know about Javier Baez and what he brings to the table. Power. A lot of it. Strikeouts. A lot of them. In tournaments, he always has a place at the position. In cash games, I would much rather go Happ, who is cheaper on both sites and showed his upside last night.

Chad Pinder FD 3000 DK 2700
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @OAK
FD - 7.28 DK - 5.83

Second base is horrible and if you're paying up for a pitcher, you won't be able to just pay up for the default safe Jose Altuve. If you're not in love with the Cubs and want to look elsewhere, Chad Piner is perfectly fine. While he's a guy who has definitely outperformed his skill set, he has power and can hit both righties and lefties. Even in the minors, Pinder profiled as a guy who would hit 15 homers and be a very average 6/7 hitter. Bob Melvin said he will get more starts and with Adam Rosales being the current SS, I don't see why not. The Athletics will be hosting the Toronto Blue Jays and left-hander J.A. Happ. While Happ isn't a horrible pitcher, he's 34 years old and has seen a dip in both velocity and movement. He's allowed a .314 wOBA against righties and his peripherals suggest it should be around .340. Pinder is very cheap on both sites and makes for a great punt. He has HR potential at a position without much of it and will let you pay up at some spots with real potential.

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Shortstop

Aledmys Diaz FD 3100 DK 3000
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.45

The Cardinals are one of our top offenses on this slate and Aledmys Diaz is right up there with Matt Carpenter as my favorite of the bunch. He is much better against righties (.390 wOBA in '16) and is only going to get better as this is his 2nd season in the majors. He gets the honor of facing off with that 1-eyed guy from monster inc, Asher Wojciechowski. Woj might want to consider a career change into scaring children, as this whole pitching thing hasn't worked out so well. He posted a 5.33 xFIP in the Marlins minors last year, which has somehow resulted in him getting 2 major league starts. The last one didn't turn out well and this one won't either. The Cardinals are seeing a huge ballpark upgrade into Great American Ballpark and make for some of the top options at each position. Diaz is certainly the top cash game option on both sites as his price is just far too low. Don't be scared away by misleading surface stats.

Troy Tulowitzki FD 3200 DK 3300
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @OAK
FD - 8.92 DK - 6.81

Sean Manaea isn't a pitcher you want to actively target, but it's going to happen on a 7 game slate without any gas cans. Manaea, while impressive, has been worse against righties. He has sported a .314 wOBA against them since the start of 2016 and has had some slight HR issues. He faces off with a very right-handed heavy lineup that has some pop against lefties. It was only 2 years ago when Tulowitzki was leading the league in home runs at the ASB. It has been a steep decline for Tulo, but he does still have the power. He hits lefties a lot better and has been hitting the ball well since coming off of the DL. This entire Blue Jays lineup is in play in tournaments, though Donaldson is the only guy I will have cash game exposure to. At shortstop, Aledmys Diaz is my guy in cash games. In tournaments, Tulowitzki is way too cheap for the upside he brings against a lefty. If you need to go even cheaper, Alcides Escobar has SB upside against Mike Fiers.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @OAK
FD - 12.01 DK - 9.1

Lefty? Ok, let's move on. In reality, it's almost that easy. There are only 2 (Kershaw, Sale) lefties in the entire league that I give the advantage to over Donaldson. He is right up there with the likes of Paul Goldschmidt and Kris Bryant in terms of hitting lefties. He won the MVP just two years ago and ended with a .428 wOBA against left-handers while hitting the ball hard nearly 50% of the time. We know Donaldson can hit in this park, as this is where it all began for him. He broke out for the Athletics and ended up moving over to the Blue Jays. He faces off with Sean Manaea, who is a strong young lefty. He has struggled a bit against righties and should have a bit of trouble against a lineup with such potent right-handers. Donaldson is expensive, but not to a point where he unaffordable. I have fit him in all of my cash games and plan on keeping it that way. With that being said, Mike Moustakas is a little too cheap on FanDuel and may end up being too tough to pass on. Donaldson is my pick for HR of the night and I will have my fair share of exposure.

Mike Moustakas FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @KC
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.07

The Royals offense is pretty tough to target as it's simply not very good. There's only a handful of players that garner appeal, though we definitely have a few in this match-up. Mike Moustakas is the best hitter on the team against righties, holding a .365 wOBA on the season. It's not a fluke, either, as this was a guy with a .373 wOBA just 2 years ago. He has plenty of power and is the engine of this order when facing a right-hander. His price is very nice as well. You can fit him comfortably on both sites and he makes for a very strong option in both formats. Mike Fiers was once a guy with a lot of potential, but not so much anymore. He has been absolutely horrible this year and currently holds a .386 combined wOBA. While he's been a bit unlucky, he wasn't too much better in 2016. While the Astros are going to be the top offense in this game, don't feel the need to shy away from the Royals. They are always very low-owned and have plenty of upside against Mike Fiers.

Outfield

Christian Yelich FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - CHC (Butler) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.58 DK - 7.62

While we haven't touched on this Marlins offense just yet, they are certainly in play. Christian Yelich is the best of the bunch and has a great match-up against a poor righty in Eddie Butler. As a Cubs fan, Eddie Butler stinks. His upside is 5 innings and 1 earned run. He can't seem to get lefties out and seems to either walk or give up a hit to every. single. one. He's sported a .401 wOBA against them since 2015 and I see no reason to believe any improvement is upon us. Wrigley Field is a lot better for hitters than Marlins Park and we'll see if any of these Marlins try to take advantage. Christian Yelich is a lot better against righties, holding a .386 wOBA since 2016. He's only going to get better at 23 years old and is just now actually seeing his BABIP rise to average. This is an all-star player and a guy that deserves to be looked at as an elite option. The Marlins entire offense is in play here in tournaments as Eddie Butler can easily implode against this type of lineup. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, and Derek Dietrich are all very interesting cash game options as well.

George Springer FD 4300 DK 5700
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 11.94 DK - 9.35
Josh Reddick FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.77
Carlos Beltran FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.44

We touched on Brian McCann earlier, though we could have touched on guys like Altuve and Correa. I stayed away due to price and them obviously being solid cash game options if you can afford them. In the outfield, all 3 of these guys are elite plays. The Astros face off with Ian Kennedy, who has been one of the biggest facades in baseball. He is currently holding a .190 BABIP and it's only a matter of time before the world crashes on his head. The Stros have a pretty good chance of putting some runs up here and Vegas has them sitting at 4.73, below only the Cardinals. George Springer is the most expensive of the bunch and probably my least favorite. He's still an elite tournament option and can hit 2 HR no matter the ballpark. Josh Reddick and Carlos Beltran are a bit more affordable and make for strong options in both formats. They each held .362+ wOBA's over the last 2 seasons and even in Kauffman Stadium, have plenty of power. All in all, this entire offense is in play and all 3 of these outfielders have the upside to get it done.

Khris Davis FD 4000 DK 3300
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.1

Khris Davis against a flyball lefty? Yes, please. Davis is a lot better against flyball prone pitchers as he magnifies everything a flyballer tries to do. He has a huge uppercut swing and it's a big reason why his power numbers are just as good at home as they are on the road. He posted a .367 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and hit 10 homers against them in just 131 at-bats. He's been priced down on both sites and is a guy who should always be in the upper tier of the outfield. On DraftKings, just play him. J.A Happ isn't a bad pitcher, but he's also not very good. He's an average southpaw with 2 good pitches and a bit of an HR problem (1.57 HR/9).  Davis has as much upside as anyone on this slate and is simply far too cheap for the hitter he is. As for the rest of this Athletics lineup, there isn't much. Ryon Healy and Trevor Plouffe are good against lefties and have a substantial amount of power in any match-up. Rajai Davis and Jed Lowrie are fine in cash, but have no upside in the Oakland Coliseum.

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