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If you are playing any of the top pitchers tonight and want to stack with them you are going to need some value. For me, it starts with the Tigers tonight who not only come in with the highest implied run total(5.2), they also provide that much-needed value. Their current projected lineup has two cheap options in Romine and Castellanos at the top followed by power bats in Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Victor Martinez, and Justin Upton. Of those four, only Miggy and JD exceed $4K on FanDuel and DraftKings. The exception if you need more saving would be to leave out JD on DraftKings as his price has reached $5K. Tonight they get a nice matchup against Derek Holland who is now pitching for the White Sox after eight years with the Rangers. He has always been an average K guy and coming into tonight his impressive 2.37 ERA appears to be a bit on the lucky side. First of all, the xFIP is more than two runs higher and he is running a BABIP close to 40 points lower than his career average. He is also walking over 3.5 batters per nine so there should be plenty of opportunities for the big bats to drive in runs tonight.
My favorite value stack all year has been the Rays although I despise their L/R/L/R batting lineup style at times.
*Shakes fist at Kevin Cash*
Either way, they are a Top 10 overall offense this season when looking at runs scored(265) and have been red hot lately. Over the past 14 days, they sit with a .339 wOBA and 116 wRC+ and have hit 24 home runs, second to only the Astros. Tonight they face Christian Bergman who has been more of a Quad-A player(bouncing between AAA and big leagues) over the past three years and the numbers show us why. He is striking out just over 4.5 batters per nine(league average is around 7 - 7.5) and sits with a 5.47 xFIP through four starts. He somehow shut down the Red Sox over seven innings in his last outing but I just don't see it happening twice in a row. He throws a fastball 47% of the time and its average velocity is under 89 mph which is only producing just a 6.7% swinging strike rate. That is great news for the Rays who are much better facing right-handed pitching with a .339 wOBA and 116 wRC+. I will be looking to build a core stack around Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, and Steven Souza Jr. who all have a wOBA over.475 vs. righties this season.
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