Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Welcome back for another Friday as we kick off the weekend in daily fantasy baseball. If you absolutely need to play the all-day slate there in one afternoon slate featuring division rivals as the Cardinals travel the Chicago to kick off a series vs. the Cubs. What is better than day baseball in Wrigley? Let's dig in and take a look at some of the top plays on the main slate tonight.
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Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 42.44 DK - 27.9
Happy Clayton Kershaw day my friends! The system, as with almost every start he makes, has him projected as the top pitcher of the night and for good reason. Dude is the best pitcher in baseball. It feels like we get him at a bargain tonight as he is at his lowest salary on FanDuel in four starts and we have seen his price over $13.5K four times on DraftKings in his last six starts. It mainly has to do with the park factor as three of those last six starts have been in San Francisco and San Diego. While the park downgrades most pitchers it doesn't drop Kershaw's projection by a whole lot. Heck, he looked pretty darn good in Colorado a few weeks ago. Tonight he faces a Brewers team that ranks inside the Top 10 in wOBA vs. southpaws but strike out at a rate of 25.4%, third highest in the league. While his K rate is down a notch this season(9.2 K/9) the swing strike rate(12.2%) is still in the elite range so don't put too much into the small sample at the start of the season. Roll with Kershaw in all formats tonight.
Opponent - OAK (Triggs) Park - @OAK
FD - 38.05 DK - 25
If you are building your lineups from the hitters up to the pitchers and just need that extra $1,000, pivot down to Stephen Strasburg tonight. With the discount, he comes in right at the same PTS/$ ranking than Kershaw and some of that has to do with the park. Both are on the road but Strasburg gets the boost traveling to the Oakland Coliseum. Strasburg also gets a slightly better matchup as the A's sit in the bottom half of the league in wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching and also strike out over 24% of the time. I prefer paying up for Kershaw in cash games tonight but will most likely split him and Strasburg in my GPP lineups.
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 32.36 DK - 21.24
For an SP2 on DraftKings or a big GPP pivot on FanDuel, you can turn to German Marquez tonight. He is technically a rookie as he made just six appearances(three starts) last season and has been very impressive since being hit hard in two of his first three starts this season. He has held opponents to two earned runs or less in four straight, winning each start with two of them coming at home in Coors Field. For the season, he has excellent splits on the road with a 1.06 ERA and .281 wOBA against. The strikeout rate is just league average but it will be hard to ignore that price, especially on DraftKings if you are trying to fit one of the top two pitchers.
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.17 DK - 7.64
The first thing I did today was check to make sure neither of my catcher recommendations got hit in the nuts without me knowing the day before. Good news! Both had the day off yesterday and should be good to go on Friday night. I will start with Grandal who has been excellent all year but especially hot in the month of May where he hit .337 with a .383 wOBA and 143 wRC+ while driving in 16 runs. He is a switch hitter who has shown heavy a heavy split differential against right-handed pitching. He will be a tough fit in your lineup with his pitcher Kershaw but works nicely if you are pivoting off him tonight.
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @KC
FD - 7.66 DK - 5.9
If you are going heavy with Kershaw tonight, you are most likely wanting to punt a couple positions to get some high upside bats. Enter Yan Gomes who has been playing more of a platoon role this season due to his disappointing .228 average against right-handed pitching. Look for him to be in the lineup tonight against a southpaw where he has shown some upside with a .399 wOBA and 153 wRC+ across 42 plate appearances and the career numbers paint the same picture.
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @DET
FD - 13.07 DK - 9.89
From a PTS/$ standpoint, Miggy is my top play at the position tonight as he comes with a very affordable price tag on both sites. The discount comes from his performance falling off so far this season as he is hitting just .260 with 21% K rate(highest since 2004). I am not worried tonight as he gets a plus matchup vs. Derek Holland who is giving up 37% hard contact and is due for regression with a 4.75 xFIP on the season overshadowing his 2.37 ERA. Miggy is safe in all formats, especially on DraftKings where he is $1,000 cheaper than my next pick.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @CIN
FD - 13.09 DK - 9.94
Canadian Joey Votto comes with an elite price tag tonight on DraftKings making him a GPP play only for me but on FanDuel I prefer him over Miggy in the same range. While the average is down under .300 to start the season, Votto has once again posted an OBP over .400 and has seen the power come back as he has already hit 14 long balls(half of last seasons total). Tonight he faces Mike Foltynewicz(almost ditched the Votto write-up trying to spell that name) who has been a below average pitcher for his career. He enters Friday with a 4.44 ERA/4.28 xFIP and a career-high 17% HR/FB rate. With a below average 8.7% swinging strike rate there is huge upside for Votto to reach base multiple times tonight and get into the double digit fantasy point range.
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @KC
FD - 10.54 DK - 8.21
If it's value you are after, whether it be price or ownership, Hosmer is the play tonight. After a slow start to the season that saw him hit just .225 in April, he has heated up and the sites have yet to fully adjust. In the month of May, he hit .367 with four home runs and drove in 13 runs while scoring 19. The park isn't that great and the Royals are the lowest scoring team in the league but on a night we need value it makes perfect sense to take the discount and ride the hot streak.
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 9.22 DK - 7.56
The second base position is definitely one position I will be finding value tonight with the top guys either in bad parks or facing top pitchers. The value train is led by DJ LeMahieu who could be overlooked for the most part as the Rockies are on the road away from Coors Field. The thing that draw me to him tonight is the fact he hits near the top of a powerful lineup and has crushed southpaws, especially this season. Through 66 plate appearances vs. left-handed pitching this season, LeMahieu has a .392 wOBA and 127 wRC+.
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.25 DK - 7.74
On DraftKings, I much prefer LeMahieu at a $100 discount but on FanDuel I love what @DatDudeBP brings to the table at a mid $2K price tag. He is a veteran who has been around in the majors since 2002 but is having a fantastic start with his new team. He lacks the power upside he once possessed but has been very consistent slashing .294/.343/.413 through 45 games and has benefited from hitting out of the two-hole for the Braves. Again, he is not going to win you a tournament on his own but provides excellent value of you are rostering an elite pitcher.
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Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @KC
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.49
It is going to be tough to fit in the top options at the position given their overall lack of upside compared to that of players at the same price at other positions(if that makes sense). Enter Francisco Lindor who tops the next tier in projections and leads all shortstops with 12 home runs on the season. More good news as he also crushed left-handed pitching with a .406 wOBA and 158 wRC+. Tonight he faces Jason Vargas who impressed to the start the season but hs 42 xFIP suggests regression is coming. In fact, it has already started as he has given up four home runs, 20 hits and 11 total earned runs over his last three starts. Lindor is safe in all formats.
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.05 DK - 6.86
Owings and Ahmed have been platooning the at the top of the order for the Diamondbacks all season and tonight it is Owings in the better spo. Ahmed was the man last night going 3-4 vs. the lefty and hitting second but will likely slide down the order tonight. Owings has shown almost identical splits all season vs. handedness so no worry if it's a lefty or righty tonight. He has also been more consistent overall coming into the night with a .359 wOBA and 117 wRC+ through 51 games. If you are rostering Kershaw on FanDuel which leaves you an average of $2,825 for your hitters, Owings fits in the lineup almost perfectly.
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.9
When looking at the third base position, one name stood out over all others. Nolan Arenado who falls outside the Top 20 in salary on FanDuel and the Top 30 in DraftKings when looking at all hitters. That just doesn't add up at all considering Arenado is one of the game's top hitters let alone third basemen and he also leads the entire league in hitting vs. left-handed pitching. If you are playing the top tier pitchers tonight and are wanting to pay up for one hitter, make Arenado at a discount with huge upside despite the downgrade in park factor.
Opponent - BOS (Porcello) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.18 DK - 9.4
Doug discussed Machado on the live stream yesterday and talked about ignoring mall sample size streaks and concentrating more on the overall picture. We can learn a lot from this mindset and need it when rostering Machado who has been awful this season with an average that hovering around the Mendoza line. The good news is that his salary is dropping fast and with a stock market mentality, it is time to buy low. He looked better last night when he picked up two hits and scored twice in four at-bats and hopefully is a sign of good things to come for the superstar third basemen.
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @NYM
FD - 7.82 DK - 6.01
Freese comes into Friday night's slate presenting value from a couple angles. Despite struggling in May with a sub .200 average, Freese gets a ton of opportunity hitting in the middle of the Pirates lineup and sits with a .335 wOBA and 109 wRC+ on the season. Then there is the matchup vs. the Dark Knight who has looked unmasked this season. Yes, he has looked better lately winning two straight but is still walking way too many batters and enters tonight with a 4.95 xFIP. Freese not only provides salary relief to get the top pitchers but also comes with some pop in his bat and upside for GPP's.
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.69 DK - 9.01
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.44 DK - 6.77
The Yankees went into Rogers Centre on Thursday night and laid an absolute whooping on Marco Estrada and the Jays. Gary Sanchez hit two home runs off Estrada and Aaron Hicks picked up four hits and drove in six runs in an eventual 12-2 win. Look for much of the same tonight as the Jays send struggling southpaw Francisco Liriano to the wolves. He has strikeout upside and can miss bats but when he misses(and he does a lot), it ends up as a free pass(7.3 BB/9 rate!) or a home run(12.5% HR/FB rate). The Yankees as a team have been better against right-handed pitching but still rank inside the Top 12 vs. southpaws. For value, roster Aaron Hicks who is riding a heater and sits with a .350 wOBA and 150 wRC+ vs. southpaws. Pair him with one of the biggest home run upside players in the game, Aaron Judge, who has also enjoyed hitting lefties with a .441 wOBA and 182 wRC+ and leads the league with 17 home runs on the season.
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @DET
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.38
If you are wanting to pivot off the Yankees, specifically Judge, take a close look at J.D. Martinez in the same price range on both sites. He has cooled off a bit since his red-hot start since returning to the lineup but still makes an elite play tonight. Through 19 games, he has recorded a .447 wOBA with ridiculous 186 wRC+ and has two hits in 10 at-bats vs. southpaws, both of which went for home runs. With Kershaw or Strasburg as the heavy favorites for cash games pitchers, it pushes Martinez down into the GPP only territory.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.09 DK - 7.94
If we had a "Value" button you could push Scott Schebler's name would surely show up tonight, especially on FanDuel. The Reds have been a Top 5 hitting team over the past few weeks and Schebler has played a big part in that. Since May 20, he has hits in eight of 11 games including six long balls good for an insane .475 ISO. The only downside to rostering him is that he hits down in the six hole for the Reds but that also helps create a gap in ownership. It also helps he hits in one of the best hitters parks in the majors.
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