Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview - AAA 400 Drive for Autism

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AAA 400 Drive for Autism

Dover International Speedway - Dover, DE
Track - 1 Mile Oval Short Track
24° of Banking in the Corner

 

We can't start this week's preview without talking about the Coca-Cola 600 last week. Not only did Austin Dillon break through and pick up his first career Cup win, he wheeled the iconic #3 Richard Childress car back to Victory Lane for the first time in nearly 17 years. It was a huge breakthrough win for Dillon and an extremely emotional night for Richard Childress who retired the number following Earnhardt's death in 2000.

On top of all that, we got our 9th winner in just 12 races this season and STILL have not seen Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Dale Earnhart Jr, or Jamie McMurray in Victory Lane. There are others, as well, who have shown winning upside and could grab a checkered flag before the regular season is over.

This week the Monster Energy Cup series heads North to Dover International Speedway for the AAA 400 Drive for Autism. The track is a one-mile short track that gets two stops during the season. The biggest thing that stood out to me when running the last three year's(six races) results was the correlation between starting and finishing position was nearly double in each year's Fall race. What does that mean? Not a whole lot really as the NASCAR has a new lower downforce package this year plus the stage racing and points system. What I do know is that we will want to once again target two or three drivers for a dominator spot as each of the last six races has seen one or two drivers lead more than 100 laps. Place differential is always an important variable when constructing as lineups as well but we can't determine those values until we see practice and qualifying. Good news! After final practice concludes and finalize the cheatsheet I will be making another YouTube video and posting it at the bottom of the article. Stay tuned.

Let's dig in and take a look at some of the race trends from Dover International Speedway.

 

Top 5 Track History at Dover (2 Year)

 

No better place for Chase Elliott to break out of his current four-race slump(38th, 29th, 30th, 24th). In his first season in the Cup series in 2016 he finished third here at Dover both times. One of the early values of the week is Kasey Kahne who has two Top 5's and a 6.5 average finish over the last two yers(four races). The only driver on the list above(average finish rank) who has picked up a win here is Martin Truex Jr. who won the Fall race in October while leading 187 laps. Oh ya. He is red hot coming in with Top 10 finishes in five of his last six races including his second win.

 

 

Top 5 Track History at Dover (Career)

 

After Elliott's impressive rookie run here, it's another young gun leading the way in career average finish. Kyle Larson has raced here six times, picking up two Top 5's and four Top 10 finishes. Then there is future Hall of Famer Jimmie Johnson who has an amazing 10 wins here, more than any other track throughout his career.

 

 

Top 5 One-Mile Short Track History (2 Year)

The one-mile tracks include Dover, New Hampshire, and Phoenix and no one has been better at those three tracks(more than one race) than Kevin Harvick who has four wins, nine Top 5's and a 7.5 average finish while leading over 1,300 laps. I won't be weighing this metric very high, if at all, this week as both Phoenix and New Hamshire are flat tracks with 9-11 degrees of banking while Dover has double the banking at 24 degrees.

 

 

Top 5 Current Form (Last 6 Races)

Speaking of Kevin Harvick, he also tops the current form ranks this week with four Top 5's and five Top 10 finishes in his last six races. He is one of the surprise drivers yet to win this season and that could end this week in Dover. Jamie McMurray enters the Top 5 form ranks for the first time this season with four Top 10's and two 12th place finishes in his last six races. Martin Truex Jr. took a big jump up from ninth after his fifth Top 10 in his last six races including his second win of the season.

 

 

Early Week Picks 

Kevin Harvick ($10,100) - Coming in red hot like I mentioned above, dominates one-mile short tracks and finished 1st and 2nd here in the two races in 2015. It also helps that his price dropped $200 and is now slightly below his season average. Jump on board as a top dominator pick this week.

Kyle Busch ($10,400) - While I didn't like the whiny side that came out in his post-race interview, I can't complain too much as a fan of Kyle Busch as he hates losing more than he loves winning. He is coming in mad after being less than a lap away from his first win of the season last week and now has three straight Top 5 finishes.

Trevor Bayne ($6,800) - Back on board with Mr. Consistency this week. Outside of the wreck and 37th place finish at Talladega, Bayne has picked up 30+ DraftKings points in every race this season and ranks 12th in average points per race. He also finished 10th here in the Spring race last year.

 

Post Qualifying/Practice Picks Video

 

 

For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well. 

 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.