Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/1/17

Welcome back for another split slate Thursday in daily fantasy baseball. On DraftKings, we are split right down the middle with four games in the afternoon and four at night but to get exposure to the Rockies/Mariners on FanDuel you will have to get your entries in on the all-day slate. The good news is that we have a couple nice pitching options on both slates to start our lineups with and some excellent spots to stack some teams. Let's jump in and look at some of the top plays.

 

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Pitchers

Early Slate

Corey Kluber FD 10000 DK 11100
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @CLE
FD - 40.41 DK - 26.62

These smaller split slates can sometimes give us a headache trying to pick a top pitcher but thankfully today we get a nice selection on each. It starts early with Corey Kluber who is projected to score the most raw points than any other pitcher on the slate and it's not really close. He and the Indians open as huge -220 favorites at home as they look to close out the series with the A's with another win. Kluber has been up and down this season and we saw the down last game where he gave up five runs in just three innings to the Tigers. The up came in the two games prior where he had a complete game shutout vs. the White Sox and 10 strikeouts against the Astros. He comes into tonight with an elite 9.9 K/9 rate and 11.6% swing strike rate and faces an A's team that is not only striking out 24% of the time vs. right-handed pitching but also striking out over 30% of the time over the last seven days. The park is not a pitchers park at all but other than that, everything is lining up for Kluber to have a big game making him safe in all formats today.

 

Main Slate

Zack Greinke FD 10400 DK 12700
Opponent - MIA (Locke) Park - @MIA
FD - 35.82 DK - 23.61

If you are like me and play as many slates as possible on Thursday's, it is good news seeing the pitching talent today spread out a bit. The main slate gives us the second highest raw points projected player in Greinke although the system isn't quite as high on him. The Diamondbacks open as -135 favorites as they travel to Miami to take on the Marlins on Thursday night. It's a good news, bad news scenario with the Marlins as they have been red hot lately with a .351 team wOBA and 118 wRC+ over the last seven days but looking at the splits makes me more excited about using Greinke. Thet Marlins have been a much better team against southpaws so far this season and sit with a wOBA over 30 points lower and a wRC+ 24 points lower vs. right-handed pitching. Even coming off one of his worst outings of the season(five earned runs @MIL), Greinke has posted some elite numbers this season with a 3.24 ERA, 3.07 xFIP and a 10.5 K/9 rate. He is, by far, the safest option on the main slate and if you are playing the all-day slate, he makes an excellent pivot in GPP's off Kluber.

 

Catcher

Early Slate

Yasmani Grandal FD 3300 DK 3200
Opponent - STL (Wainwright) Park - @STL
FD - 10 DK - 7.51
Austin Barnes FD 2100 DK 3100
Opponent - STL (Wainwright) Park - @STL
FD - 3.85 DK - 3.15

Not much going on at the catcher position in the early slate. I say this as there is a chance the top projected catcher, Yasmani Grandal, sits with a day game after night game. If he is in there, he makes a great pick in all formats as he has heated up like the weather. In the month of May he is hitting .341 with a .391 wOBA and has driven in 16 runs. He has also made his way up the lineup and now sits in the three hole. If Grandal is out Thursday, take a shot with Austin Barnes who has filled in nicely as a backup this season and sits in the punt range, at least on FanDuel. He is hitting .278 on the season and has a RBI in each of his last two games. On the early slate, we may have to wait for lineups to shake out before completely evaluating the position.

 

Main Slate

Welington Castillo FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @BAL
FD - 4.55 DK - 3.5

The main slate gives us a few more options and some tough decisions at the position. Gary Sanchez is the highest projected catcher on the entire day but gets a tougher matchup vs. Marco Estrada who has been striking everybody out lately. It has me taking the discount with "Beef" Welington Castillo who is enjoying his first season in Baltimore. He is currently hitting .317 with a .346 wOBA and 116 wRC+ but that isn't all that stands out. Looking at the splits, Castillo has always shown more positive results against southpaws and the same proves true this season as he is hitting with an average 50 points higher and a hard contact rate of 51.7% vs. left-handed pitching.

Sorry to all of you who read the article early this am. I wrote up Castillo early in the afternoon yesterday and didn't realize he was placed on the DL until later. Believe me, he is in more pain about this than I am. For the main slate, with no Beef, I like turning to whichever D-Backs catcher is starting tonight as both Iannetta and Mathis have crushed left-handed pitching tonight and will face Jeff Locke making his season debut.

 

 

First Base

Early Slate

Lucas Duda FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @NYM
FD - 9.74 DK - 7.29

Even with a price that is creeping up on DraftKings, Duda makes a great play on the early slate at first base. He still comes cheaper than the Indians due of Encarnacion and Santana and Duda has been the hottest first basemen on the planet over the past seven days. He went into Wednesday night's game hits in six straight games with three doubles and four home runs. While Chase Anderson comes into this matchup coming off an excellent 11 K, seven-inning shutout of the Diamondbacks, he has struggled on the road with a 5.54 ERA and has given up a hard contact rate of over 42% to left-handed batters. Duda is in play in all formats today, especially on FanDuel at a price under $3K.
Main Slate

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - MIA (Locke) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.66 DK - 10.1

Pretty straight forward at the top of the main slate as we get Goldy facing a southpaw.  Even though he has been much better vs. righties so far this season(.444 wOBA/172 wRC+), he still carries a .339 wOBA and 103 wRC+ into this matchup and we all know about his career splits. Tonight he faces Jeff Locke making his Marlins debut and first start in the majors since August last year with the Pirates. he got blown up in that start giving up five earned runs to the Braves and finished the season with a 5.44 ERA and 4.91 xFIP. He also struggled much more against right-handed batters giving up a wOBA 50 points higher and a hard contact rate just under 15% higher(34.9% vs. RH bats). With Greinke the only $10K+ pitcher tonight it shouldn't be hard to fit Goldschmidt into your lineups.

Sam Travis FD 2700 DK 2900
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 3.88 DK - 3.13

If you decide to fade Goldy and possibly want to punt the position, don't forget about Sam Travis. His price stays down in the sub $3K range thanks to his platoon status and will most likely be back in the lineup tonight facing Wade Miley. In nine plate appearances vs. southpaws in his young career, Travis has three singles, a double and a walk with four runs scored. Worthy of a GPP spot in your lineups as you load up at other positions.

Second Base

Early Slate

Jason Kipnis FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.48

Kipnis has a late start to the 2017 season after spending the first three weeks on the disabled list. That lack of spring training at-bats showed when he returned as he struggled mightily out of the gate. After getting some time under his belt, he has heated up and has been one of the hottest second basemen in the league since mid-May. In 15 games hitting out of the leadoff spot since May 14th, he has hit six home runs with a .427 wOBA and 172 wRC+. His price has yet to fully adjust on either site and he comes with a reasonable discount off the top options in a small slate. He makes a nice one-off option in cash games or as a part of a high upside Indians stack.

 

Main Slate

Devon Travis FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.48 DK - 6.85

On the main slate, we another second base option at the same price as Kipnis and also safe in all formats. Travis also started his season out on a cold streak hitting just .130 in the month of April but has found his rhythm and timing and has been red-hot in May hitting .368 with three home runs, 17 RBI and 16 runs scored. The downside to Travis is that he hits down in the Jays order with the team coming back to health but the upside is that he has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .403 wOBA and 156 wRC+ on the season.
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Shortstop

Early Slate

Francisco Lindor FD 3200 DK 4900
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.23 DK - 9.07

If you are playing the early slate on DraftKings where they are including the Rockies/Mariners game, I like Segura as my top shortstop. For FanDuel I prefer Lindor who isn't even the most expensive option on a small three-game slate. He struggled in the first two games of the series vs. the A's going 0-5 but woke up last night with a home run. He came into this series red-hot with hits in 12 straight games and has shown a huge explosion of power this season with 12 home runs after hitting just 15 all of last season. Look for the hot hitting to continue as he faces young Jharel Cotton who has struggled lately giving up 12 earned runs(6 HR) over his last three starts.

 

Main Slate

Chris Owings FD 2900 DK 4400
Opponent - MIA (Locke) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.04 DK - 7.71
Nick Ahmed FD 2400 DK 3300
Opponent - MIA (Locke) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.9 DK - 7.31

On the main slate, I am going to continue to pick on Jeff Locke who has been nothing more than an average pitcher at the major league level. He is coming off a biceps injury and after two rehab starts at AA, will make his first start with the Marlins. With a low 90 mph fastball that he throws around 66% of the time, he fails to miss bats with a career 6.4 K/9 rate and 8.7% swinging strike rate. After leading the league in hitting vs. left-handed pitching in 2016 the D-Backs rank 21st through two months but might be even lower without Owings and Ahmed. Outside the catchers(Iannetta/Mathis) who have limited at-bats, Ahmed leads the way against southpaws with a .424 wOBA and 159 wRC+ with Owings right behind him with a .365 wOBA and 120 wRC+. If both are in the lineup, they make great plays in any format on FanDuel while Ahmed holds the PTS/$ edge on DraftKings with a $1,100 discount.

 

Third Base

Early Slate

Jose Ramirez FD 3200 DK 5000
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.94

I don't want you to get the impression that I think Cotton is an awful pitcher. He is a rookie in his first full season in the big leagues and while he has shown some electric stuff, he has struggled as most rookies do early in their career. He also happens to be the lowest priced pitcher and best target among the six pitchers on the early slate. The matchup vs. Cotton is definitely not the only reason the Indians come in so heavy in the early slate picks as they have been red hot ranking 4th in wOBA(.377) and 3rd in wRC+(138) over the past seven days and Jose Ramirez is a big reason why with his .518 wOBA and 235 wRC+. The price is a ridiculous $5K on DraftKings today making him a GPP play only but at $3.2K on FanDuel you can throw him in your lineups in any format.

 

Main Slate

Miguel Sano FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.75 DK - 8.76

I bet you thought I was going to go Josh Donaldson here, especially as I am a Jays fan. While I do like Donaldson from a GPP standpoint, I love Sano a little more for safety tonight. Despite a jaw-dropping 38% K rate, he is having a breakout season slashing .292/.406/.590 with 12 home runs and 39 RBI which sit inside the Top 10 of the entire league. Digging even deeper, we can see where the power is coming from as he sits second overall(batters with at least 100 PA) in hard contact rate with an absurd 53.4% rate. Tonight he faces Alex Meyer who is making his return from the 10-day disabled list. Before getting injured he flashed upside with three straight starts with seven strikeouts but gets hurt big time by his lack of control(6.94 BB/9). Sano is safe in all formats tonight.

Outfield

Early Slate

Michael Conforto FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.71

Conforto has been on a mission this season and has broken out in a huge way. After posting just a .220 average and home runs in 106 games last year, he has already hit 13 home runs this season while slashing .318/.415/.643 from the leadoff spot. While his price has stayed consistent on FanDuel in the low $4K range, it slowly climbed to the mid $5K range on DraftKings making him virtually unplayable. Good news! Even on a small slate, we have seen his salary come back down in the mid $4K range making him playable in all formats on both sites today.

Charlie Blackmon FD 4500 DK 5600
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.71

If you are playing the early slate on DraftKings or the all-day slate on FanDuel, Blackmon makes an excellent GPP play today. The fact he is the most expensive option in the outfield on both sites combined with the game falling in a weird spot(slate wise) could bring him into a value ownership range. Even if his ownership is in the average range, he is still a great play with not only a high floor but huge upside. Blackmon ranks among the Top 5 outfielders in baseball in 2017 with his .412 wOBA and 139 wRC+ while leading the league in RBI with 46.

 

Main Slate

Mookie Betts FD 4500 DK 5300
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.58 DK - 10.25
Jackie Bradley Jr. FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 4.8 DK - 3.75

Back to the B's in Boston on Thursday night. Hard not to back the Red Sox at this point as they have been red hot winning eight of their last 10 games while scoring an average of 6.8 runs per game. While they rank second to last in home runs, they rank third in average and 12th in overall runs scored and during that 10-day stretch scored 10+ runs three times. They rank right around league average against righties but have crushed southpaws to the tune of .343 wOBA and 111 wRC+. There should be no issue with salary cap tonight meaning we can pay right up for Betts in our lineups as he leads the way for the Red Sox offense from the leadoff position. Then if you are looking to differentiate in tournaments you can roll with Jack Bradley Jr. who has yet to hit for average this season but has shown some power upside in May with five home runs and six multi-hit games. He is best utilized on FanDuel where he comes in just over $3K tonight.

 

 

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