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Tip your cap to Austin Bibens-Dirkx. For 11 years he's been toiling in small towns, riding buses, bouncing around the minor leagues while nearly everybody he started out with moved on to the majors or just moved on with their lives. He finally got the call to the big leagues earlier this month, working out of the Texas bullpen, and tonight he'll be making his first MLB start. It'll be a proud moment, a testament to his drive and persistence, and it's easy to be happy for the guy. So tip your cap to him, and then grab all the Tampa Bay bats you can, beccause the dude's probably gonna get shelled. Bibens-Dirx has a pretty average minor-league track record, as you might guess from the fact that nobody saw fit to call him up before he was 32 years old, and he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which should make him vulnerable tonight. The Rays have one of the most potent offenses in baseball vs. RHP, ranking 2nd in team ISO (.198) and third in wRC+. Of course, they also strike out a bunch (26%), so the boom-or-bust thing is real. But in Globe Life Park against a pitcher who appears to be replacement level (at best), the odds are in their favor tonight.
Ok. Mike Pelfrey. He's not good. He's got a 4.56 career ERA and a 4.59 xFIP, which tells us he's precisely as bad as we think he is. And since the beginning of last season the xFIP is at 5.05, so he's getting worse, and at 33 years old, he's unlikely to reverse the decline. But we also have to mention that he's been able to hang around the big leagues for more than a decade because he still knows how to eat innings without getting totally destroyed. Bottom line, you can count on Boston to get to him, just don't expect and avalanche of runs and homers -- which might make them better in a supporting role, instead of a full stack surrounded by a couple of one-offs. Pelfrey struggles most against lefties, allowing a .375 wOBA since the beginning of last year, so Benintendi, Jackie Bradley and Mitch Moreland all deserve a look, and with the win blowing out to left-center, righties are also in play as an already-friendly park should be even more lively tonight.
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Toronto is looking like the chalk in the early games, but the absence of Josh Donaldson undercuts our enthusiasm somewhat. Still though, we like everybody in the 1-6 spots to varying degrees, because the park is great and Tim Adleman is not. The 29-year-old Cincinnati starter has a 4.93 xFIP and allowed 1.64 HRs/9 since making his major league last season. He gives up lots of fly balls (51% vs. lefties), and a 37% hard-contact rate vs. righties, so there's little reason to avoid any bat you like. Jose Bautista and Kendrys Morales are our favorites; both have a .345+ wOBA and .225+ ISO vs. RHP since the beginning of last season.
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