Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/31/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13300
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 41.71 DK - 27.5

This is a slate with some very interesting pitching options, so let's jump right in. When Max Scherzer is on the mound, he's generally at the top of this article as well. On a slate like this, nothing changes. Scherzer is in one of the best spots he will be in all year, heading to AT&T Park to face the Giants. While facing the Giants in AT&T Park is usually one of the scariest match-ups in baseball, that DEFINITELY can't be said in 2017. In fact, they have been the absolute worst team in baseball against righties, as well as the worst team in baseball at home. I know, it's hard to believe the Giants may be one of the worst offenses around. However, when you look past the reputation of the Giants, the lineup is very meh. Starting with the stars, we have Brandon Belt and Buster Posey. Both are very viable against righties, but strikeout over 20% of the time and held sub .365 wOBA's in 2016. In the heart of the order, we're looking at guys like Christian Arroyo, Mac Williamson, and Eduardo Nunez. While those guys aren't horrible players, they don't have much to offer in this stadium. It ranked dead last in terms of power to both righties and lefties in 2016 and it averaged the least amount of HR per game. We all know how great Scherzer is, but let's take a look. He's struck out over 14 righties per 9 innings this year, while holding both sides of the plate to a combined .251 wOBA. His only real issue is with the HR ball, which this ballpark will help a ton with. Scherzer will cost you tonight, but it very well may end up being worth it. There are ways to pay down for bats and if you need to get Scherzer, you can.

Jacob deGrom FD 11200 DK 12000
Opponent - MIL (Guerra) Park - @NYM
FD - 41 DK - 26.91

If you want to take a step down from Scherzer, there is nothing wrong with a pivot to Jacob DeGrom. You can also target both of them on DraftKings, but you'll certainly be forced to pay down everywhere else. DeGrom, who faces off with the Brewers tonight, has been very good this year. While he was worked through a couple injuries and setbacks, he has consistently put out a lot of innings and has done so with a circus around him that is the Mets pitching staff. He's also been very effective to both righties and lefties, as evident by the .281 wOBA and .321 BABIP. Now that he's fully healthy, you can expect a few huge outings out of DeGrom as his arm gets more and more stretched out. He showed it just last week, mutilating the Pirates for 8.1 innings and 10 strikeouts. The Mets also have a very tired and dwindled bullpen, which almost forces Terry Collins into riding his starter longer than he may normally. The opposing Brewers team is nothing to be afraid of. While they started off pretty hot and had some people hyped up about them, we all know they stink. They are the Brewers. With Braun out of the lineup, DeGrom should be scared of nobody. The Brewers hold a top 5 strikeout rate and bottom 5 wOBA against righties over the last month and show no reason for optimism. The match-up is great and DeGrom is heading in the right direction. He is a fine play in all formats and makes a lot of sense on DK as a pivot.

James Paxton is the pitcher who should be right here. However, it's tough to endorse a guy coming off of the DL with an expected pitch limit. If the Mariners announce Paxton has no limit or one over 90, he is in play against a Rockies team who struggles against lefties. Looking a bit cheaper, Antonio Senzatela and Junior Guerra are both interesting. They both move into pitcher-friendly ballparks and take on lineups that can be susceptible to the K. With that being said, on a 1-pitcher site like FanDuel, I wouldn't get off of Scherzer or DeGrom in cash games(50/50's, H2H).

Early - Aaron Nola, Mike Bolsinger

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.72 DK - 9.04

The bats, like pitching, are very intriguing tonight. Without an offense that stands out or a game in Coors Field, the ownership should end up being spread out. With that being said, catcher may be the one spot where ownership is a bit more stagnant. Why? Because Gary Sanchez is facing a reverse-splits righty in Camden Yards. Kevin Gausman, who held a .349 wOBA against righties in 2016, has fallen off a cliff this year. He currently holds a .417 wOBA to right-handers and has allowed 6 homers in less than 35 innings. He's obviously not very good right now and this Yankees lineup is not a great cure. Gary Sanchez (righty) in particular, is actually better against righties. He held a .451 wOBA against them and backed it up with ridiculous peripherals. Camden Park is an upgrade from Yankee Stadium and Sanchez is an elite play in all formats. He will be highly owned, but has a much better chance of hitting an HR than any other single catcher does.

Salvador Perez FD 3200 DK 2900
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @KC
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.81

After Gary Sanchez, ownership should be completely spread out at the position. Salvador Perez and the Royals will host the Tigers and Matt Boyd. Boyd is a young lefty who has severely struggled this season to righties, allowing a .389 wOBA and 7 home runs in less than 50 innings of work. He's striking out less than 7 per 9 and is allowing righties to hit the ball hard 43.4% of the time. Yes, that's easily the highest among qualifying pitchers. Sal Perez, while nowhere near a great hitter, is a very average bat with a good amount of pop for a catcher. He already has 11 homers on the season and could easily add to that tonight in Kauffman Stadium.  On DraftKings, Perez is way too cheap and a fantastic cash game play as well. As for other catcher options on this slate, I don't mind waiting for lineups to come out and punting. Catcher is typically one of the least fruitful positions and there are times where paying all the way down can pay off. One of those scenarios is allowing you to target the elite pitcher you prefer. Tonight, that's either Jacob DeGrom or Max Scherzer.

Early - Evan Gattis, Russell Martin

First Base

Matt Holliday FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.28

Unlike catcher, first base has nobody that stands above the rest. In fact, this is a relatively weak slate for first base. We definitely have some guys with upside, but they all seem to either be overpriced or in a tough match-up. Holliday is rather fairly priced and is definitely in a good match-up. We've already touched on Gausman twice now and it should give you a clear view of how we're approaching the Yankees tonight. They're one of the top stack options in both cash games and tournaments, and also have a lot of different ways you can go in completing that stack. As for Holliday, like Gary Sanchez, was better against righties in 2016. He does hit both sides pretty well and has held a .340 wOBA over the last few seasons. Holliday may not be the same guy he was just 5 years ago but he's still a very good hitter. He doesn't strikeout nearly as much anymore and has done a very good job of spreading the ball to all fields as his power diminishes. Once a guy who looked to be aging like milk, Holliday may be turning into a New York fine wine. He is a lot cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings, like most players, but is still fairly priced on each site. He makes for a good cash game play and has a lot of tournament appeal if you think the Yankees get to Gausman.

Hanley Ramirez FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.22
Mitch Moreland FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.66

The Red Sox definitely got it going last night, scoring 13 runs and beating up the White Sox best pitcher, Jose Quintana. They now face Mike Pelfrey, who is one of the absolute worst pitchers in baseball, without question. He has a .210 BABIP right now, so I don't want to hear about his numbers through 20 innings. Let's focus on the player he has been for the past 3 seasons. The one who can't get anyone out and rarely gets out of the 5th inning.  He's allowed a .373 combined wOBA since 2015 and we'll look a bit deeper later on. I have no idea why Mike Pelfrey is in a rotation over some of the guys in the minors, but he is. The Red Sox are facing him and we have to take advantage. Vegas has the implied team total at 5.25, which is the highest on this slate. Both Hanley and Moreland held .340+ wOBA's in 2016 and have plenty of upside in U. S. Cellular Field. In cash games, I'll take Hanley, though there is definitely merit in Moreland as he is cheaper on both sites. In tournaments, you can go either way. Moreland will be lesser owned and has just as much upside.

 

Early - Kendrys Morales, Josh Bell

Second Base

This was where Dustin Pedroia was, but he's been placed on the DL. Without Pedroia, it will be interesting to see how the Sox construct their lineup. As for second base, it's not a great position. Daniel Murphy is now the top option without price considered and we will touch on him in a minute. If you're looking to save some funds, Rougned Odor and Whit Merrifield are interesting. If you have any questions about anyone else at the position, feel free to comment below.

Daniel Murphy FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.78

If you want to look elsewhere from Pedroia for whatever reason, the Washington Nationals are facing Matt Cain. No matter the ballpark, you must take notice. While Matt Cain hasn't been atrocious this year, he's held a .347 wOBA against lefties while getting very lucky (4.6% HR/FB) with the long ball. He's only getting older and worse against both sides of the plate. Cain is now striking out less than 6 batters per 9 innings and has allowed hard contact 34% of the time. As for Daniel Murphy, he was the best hitter in baseball against righties last year. He held a .430+ wOBA and lead the Nats in the majority of categories against right-handers. He's priced down due to the move to AT&T Park, which admittedly matters. However, as a guy who tends to pull, Murphy does have the friendliest part of the park in his favor. While Pedroia is the clear cash game option at the position, a discounted Daniel Murphy will always hold appeal.

Early - Jose Altuve

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Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.33 DK - 9.07

Xander Bogarts is one of the only Red Sox that was priced up appropriately for this match-up. However, the price isn't extreme and he's still coming in as the top option on both sites. It has everything to do with Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey who is 33 years old going on 120, held a .361 wOBA against righties in 2016. He also allowed a 34% hard contact rate and 5.11 xFIP. He's simply a bad pitcher and I have no idea why anyone ever expects that to change. He is only getting worse with age and I expect the Sox to put up some runs here. As mentioned, Vegas currently has this game at a 9.5 over/under with the Red Sox projected to score 5.28. Bogaerts, while better against lefties, showed plenty of ability against righties in 2016 with a .340 wOBA and 35% hard contact rate. Bogaerts has been phenomenal against right-handers so far this season and it will be interesting to see how the remainder of the season turns out. As for tonight, he's a fantastic option aginst a not-so-fantastic pitcher.

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 10.59 DK - 9.33

Trea Turner comes in slightly cheaper than Xander Bogaerts on both sites. I don't think he's cheap enough to draw ownership away from Bogaerts, however. Trea Turner is in a fantastic spot tonight and if you're stacking the Red Sox, this could be the spot where I lay off. While Bogaerts is great, you can only fit 4 Red Sox and he may end up being the weakest link after Hanley, Betts, Pedroia, and Benintendi. Personally, it's a route I will go due to Trea Turner being an option here. He faces a Matt Cain is 32 years old, though it seems like he's about 70 due to his rapidly decreasing velocity and effectiveness. He was worked extremely hard when younger and his arm is just now paying the consequences. He's striking out as many batters as Bartolo Colon and isn't backing it up with any type of real prerogative. He just can't strike anyone out anymore. Trea Turner, a speed demon right-hander, is a reverse splits hitter to an extreme. He sported a .413 wOBA against righties compared to a .325 vs lefties. He also stole 33 bases in just 70 games. Trea Turner is one of the best DFS gold mines in baseball and we should be looking to target him constantly. He's great in all formats and could easily outscore Bogaerts at a much lower ownership.

Early - Troy Tulowitzki, Francisco Lindor

Third Base

Evan Longoria FD 3300 DK 5100
Opponent - TEX (Bibens-Dirkx) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.5 DK - 8.76

Who else? Third base is a wasteland. Fortunately, on FanDuel, Evan Longoria has come for the rescue. If you're a DK only player, Longo may be a bit too expensive for your taste. It makes sense when you're forced to pay up for pitching in at least 1 spot, if not 2. The Texas Rangers will give Austin Bibens-Dirkx his first start of his career and hopefully his last, because that is a brutal name to type on a regular basis. In all seriousness, this is a guy who has been floating around the minors since 2006. While I'd love to see a 32-year-old make a debut and turn into a great pitcher, it is not going to happen. Bibens-Dirkx has been struggling against AA hitters for literally 5 years and even saw an A+ stint in 2013. It's not like he's been on a road of vengeance since then either. He posted 5.00 xFIP last season and I truly have no clue why he is even in the discussion for a starting job. While Evan Longoria is typically a target against lefties, he's good against righties (.331 wOBA) and moves into a much better ballpark. At a position that is truly barren, Evan Longoria is your top option.

Todd Frazier FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.28 DK - 8.07

Once you get past Evan Longoria, good luck. Longoria will be my cash game option on FanDuel due to his price, but it's going to be very tough to pay $5100 on DraftKings. While literally nobody other than Longo is in a ++ spot, Todd Frazier has a lot of upside in his respective match-up with Drew Pomeranz. While Pomeranz is a really good pitcher, he does struggle with the HR against righties. He gave up 20 against them in under 140 innings last year and has already followed that up with 6 this season in under 40 innings of work. U.S. Cellular Field is a great park for hitting and Frazier has been great against lefties for a few years now. This is a guy who just hit 40 homers and has as much power as anyone else on the slate. If Frazier connects on a curveball, it won't be a warning track flyout. With all of that being said, I would like to make it clear that Longoria is the safest option on the board. Frazier is a fine pivot, but just that, a pivot. He's far from safe and if you are looking to punt, I don't hate the idea either. On FanDuel, play Longo. On DraftKings, everyone is dealt the same smelly hand of 3B.

Early - Josh Donaldson

Outfield

Kevin Kiermaier FD 2900 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Bibens-Dirkx) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.33 DK - 8.61
Corey Dickerson FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Bibens-Dirkx) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.4 DK - 8.86

When DraftKings take a team and sends their prices to the moon, that usually means some runs are on the way. In this case, I don't think it takes a scientist to know the Rays are going to put up some runs. Austin Bibens-Dirkx is a bad pitcher and he will see his first MLB start at age 32, after struggling in the minors consistently for 10 seasons. Both Corey Dickerson and Kevin Kiermaier are extremely talented hitters against righties and bring completely different things to the table. Kiermaier is looking to get on base and start the wheels. he gets into pitchers head and will often force big innings when on the bases. Dickerson is the guy who's going to try and drive him in. He's swinging for the fences on almost every singe and fortunately, the fences are in a much better spot in Globe Life Park for lefties, opposed to Tropicana Field. Both Kiermaier and Dickerson held .338+ wOBA in 2016 and Dickerson looks to bturning intoto the elite hitter he was in 2015, when he sported a +.400 wOBA. The entire Rays lineup is firmly in play and these 2 guys are the top options in the order without price considered.

Mookie Betts FD 4600 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.66 DK - 11.13
Andrew Benintendi FD 3700 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.49 DK - 9.2

Yep, some more Red Sox. I promise, there are no more hidden positions. While there isn't much else to say about Mike Pelfrey without getting charged for slander, it comes down to a bad pitcher facing a good offense. Both Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi play integral roles in why this lineup is so great. Betts, the best player in the lineup, is a force to be reckoned with in every aspect of the game. He's a true 5 tool player and has as much upside as anyone on the slate. He sported a .388 wOBA in 2016 and will only get better at 24 years old. A bit younger is Benintendi at 22, who's posted a .355 wOBA since coming into the league. This entire lineup is in play and both of these guys are elite options in all formats. If you're stacking the Red Sox, I would personally not leave either of these guys out of the stack. The Red Sox have shown us the epitome of baseball the last few days, posting 0 runs against an atrocious pitcher and then 13 against Jose Quintana. Sometimes baseball is simply unpredictable. Make sure you don't use non-quantifiable reasons to avoid a player or team. I promise that guy you are never going to play again will have success at a future date. To not even consider him is lessening your edge as a DFS player.

Aaron Judge FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.17

To close us off let's look at our current HR leader, Aaron Judge. Judge has been arguably the best hitter in baseball so far, sporting a .440+ wOBA against both lefties and righties. While the guy isn't Babe Ruth and we will see regression, this is a guy who is here to stay. He is going to be an elite power hitter for years to come and has one of the most powerful swings in the history of baseball. Tonight, he faces off with Kevin Gausman in Camden Yards. Gausman, as noted, is a lot worse against righties. Judge hasn't shown a clear distinction between lefties and righties, but is hitting the ball a bit harder against righties and is currently holding a league-high .461 wOBA. The price is high and in cash games, make sure you pay up at pitching. In tournaments, Judge is one of the top options on the slate. He should go under-owned with the elite pitching on the slate and has the upside to hit 2 HR's on any given night. Give him a little boost tonight with the HR-lover Kevin Gausman on the mound.

Early - Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, George Springer, Max Kepler

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