Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - the Memorial Tournament

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.

 

the Memorial Tournament

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy golf and welcome back FanDuel after making a change to their product. The scoring stays the same but you will no longer have to designate rounds 1-2 or 3-4 for your golfers. Just pick eight golfers and go! If you thought getting 6/6 through the cut on DraftKings was somewhat of a challenge, get ready for the new challenge on FanDuel of getting 8/8 through to the weekend. I am guessing the %'s will be very low putting a huge spotlight on balancing safety with upside. I can't wait to give it a whirl as I quickly lost interest the first time around.

This week the PGA Tour travels to Muirfield Village Golf Club, better known as Jack's Place which is annually ranked inside the Top 20 golf course's in America and Top 50 in the World. The Memorial tournament has been hosted at Muirfield Village GC each year since the first one in 1976. It is a Par 72 that stretches out to just under 7,400 yards but automatically think that this a bombers paradise. Last year there were four golfers inside the Top 10 that finished inside the Top 10 in Driving Distance(for the year) but three of the Top 4 fell outside the Top 118 in distance. In 2015, there were only two golfers inside the Top 10 who finished the season Top 10 in Driving Distance and just one in 2014. I found this somewhat odd at first glance seeing as there are seven Par 4 holes on the course that stretch out over 447 yards but the stats don't lie. The Par 5's also all sit between 527 and 563 yards which make them accessible in two by almost the entire field.

Let's quickly take a look at the course details and past five winners and then jump into the stats and fantasy approach.

 

The Course

Muirfield Village Golf Club - Dublin, OH
Par 72 - 7,392 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass Greens

**Click to Enlarge**

Past Five Winners

• 2016 - William McGirt(-15)
• 2015 - David Lingmerth(-15)
• 2014 - Hideki Matsuyama(-13)
• 2013 - Matt Kuchar(-12)
• 2012 - Tiger Woods(-9)

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Greens in Regulation from 175-200 Yards
• Par 4 Scoring/Bogey Avoidance
• Par 5 Birdie or Better %

Looking at the cheatsheet and the last three years results and correlated stats, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green shows up as the clear #1 stat to target. With Driving Distance and Accuracy both really low on the correlated list, it has me put a lot of emphasis on the Approach shot this week and specifically from 175-200. All four Par 3's fall in that range and with seven par 4's over 447 Yards, there will be a ton of approaches coming in that range as well. I group Par 4 Scoring and Bogey Avoidance together as this isn't necessarily where golfers will make up most of their score but it will be very important to not lose shots to the field on these 10 holes.  The Par 5's is where the fantasy points will come from and I list Par 5 BoB% as there have been at least 36 Eagles on the four Par 5's in each of the last three years.

As always if you are looking for some other tournament angles and Top 25 trends, be sure to head over to Future of Fantasy and check out the Fantasy Golfanac for the Memorial. 

For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanShareSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.

 

Top Course History Targets

Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#66)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($8,600)

Finau has only played here twice in his young career but finished T8 in 2015 and T11 last season. He isn't just a bomber either(4th in Driv Dist on sheet) as he fits the stats profile quite well ranking 5th in SG:T2G, 21st in SG: APP, 3rd in GIR from 175-200 and 20th in Par 5 BoB%. At first glance, his salary looks to be off but he is actually just $70 above his season average(back to ToC). That hasn't stopped him from being the most tagged(22) on FanShareSports as of early Tuesday am and 11 of those are start recommendations(also leads the field). I could see the case for fading Finau in tournaments with a very high projected ownership but at a price under $8K and a profile that matches the course, I find it very hard this week.

 

Matt Kuchar
World Golf Ranking (#18)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($9,400)
FanDuel ($9,500)

Kuchar leads the way this week of all players who have played here more than twice in their career. He has made the trip to Muirfield 11 times, making 10 cuts and picking up six Top 10 finishes including a WIN back in 2013. Kuchar is one of the most consistent players on Tour and even though he has missed four cuts this season, two of them came before December. He comes into this week with six straight cuts made including a T12 last week and T9 at the Byron Nelson the week before. The price came down $700 from last week but is still $400 over his season average and by the looks of the tags on FanShareSports, he could be a low owned play this week. He has been tagged five times as a start and twice for  fade(highest so far of any player).

 

Other notable Course History plays: Emiliano Grill(T11 last year), Byeong Hun An(T11 last year), Patrick Reed(T8, T26 last two years)

 

 

 

Top Current Form Targets

Dustin Johnson
World Golf Ranking (#1)
Vegas Odds (6/1)
Draftkings ($12,000)
FanDuel ($11,800)

No surprise at all that the hottest player is also the #1 golfer in the world. DJ could actually fit in any one of these categories which makes him an elite play. In fact, he is one of just two players(Grillo the other) who sits inside the Top 20 in Stats, Form and Course History. After winning three straight tournaments including the Match Play he withdrew from the Masters with a back injury but has quickly found his form. He finished T2 at the Wells Fargo and has gone T12 and T13 at the PLAYERS and Byron Nelson. While those scores won't pay off a $12K salary, it is great to see he is trending in the right direction. More good news is that he has shot rounds under 70 in four of his last five rounds. I don't think paying up for DJ in cash is optimal but for GPP's he makes a great foundation to your lineup.

 

Kevin Tway
World Golf Ranking (#185)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($6,500)
FanDuel ($6,800)

I have to admit I didn't know a whole lot about Tway before this season but he has quickly grabbed my attention over the past two months. Since a missed cut at the Genesis Open, he has made six straight cuts including three Top 5's and no finish worse than T32. He is a bomber(3rd in the field in Driv Dist) and although he doesn't completely fit the stats model(76th in SG: APP), he scores well on the Par 5's, scrambles well, and is a  decent enough putter to stay in contention on the weekend. I won't be trusting him in cash games but will be loading up in GPP's with his mid $6K price tag.

 

Other Notable Form Plays: Bud Cauley(T41, T5, T5, T120, T9 last five tourneys), Patrick Cantlay(T22, T14, T3, T39, 2nd last five tourneys)

Who the Stats Like

John Rahm
World Golf Ranking (#9)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($10,800)

If not for his lack of course history, Rahm would most definitely be rivaling DJ as the #1 overall golfer this week on my cheatsheet. Don't let the new course worry you though, as it hasn't affected Rahm all year as he goes to new locations in his first full professional season. He does sit atop the stats rankings with his elite all-around game. He ranks 2nd in SG: T2G, 2nd in SG: APP, 8th in Driv Dist, 9th in overall GIR, 2nd in GIR from 175-200, 2nd in Par 4 scoring and 4th in overall BoB%. He could have easily been in the form section as well. Going back to the start of the 2016 season(fall of 2015), he has played 23 tournaments, making all but one cut with a win, two runner-ups, and 10 op 10 finishes. Until he shows that he is human, he is a fantastic play in all formats.

 

 

Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#4)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($9,800)

A very close second in the stats department is Hideki Matsuyama. He ranks 3rd behind Rahm in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: APP3rd in Par 4 scoring and 1st in Par 5 BoB%. The only stat to be worried about is Putting for Hideki which automatically makes him a GPP only play this week. There is also a good chance he is lower owned than others in his price range as teh form just hasn't been in the elite territory lately. He cooled off after a hot start but has still been making cuts(5 straight) and is ready to break out once again. No better place than where he picked up his first career PGA Tour win.

 

Other Notable Stats Plays: Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Brendan Steele

 

Top Low-End Value Play

Byeong Hun An
World Golf Ranking (#56)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($7,500)

This is the golfer who's price really stood out this week as being way too low. He played here for the first time last year, finishing T11 after missing his previous two cuts going into the tournament. This year he comes in with much better form with back to back Top 10's at the Wells Fargo Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson. He ranks 32nd in the stats model but stands out in a few areas. He ranks 12th in SG: T2G, 6th in SG: OTT+APP, and 15th in GIR from 175-200 yards. If he can manage to score on teh Par 5's where he has had troubles, he can bet he is going to be lurking on the weekend once again.

 

Other Notable Value Plays: Marc Leishman(14th in Stats, 15th in Course History), Billy Horschel(Finished 11th/15th in 2015 and 2014 respectively)

 

 

If you have any questions leading up to lineup lock Thursday morning you can reach me in a variety of ways. Leave a Q below in the comment section and I will get you an answer. You can hit me up in the new chatroom here at DFSR(It's crazy busy with NBA/MLB talk so try and private message me for specific PGA Q's. I am also always available on Twitter(@jager_bombs9). Good luck this week!

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

the Memorial Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

Weekly YouTube Video

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.