Boston Red Sox's Chris Sale pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays in Boston, Saturday, April 15, 2017, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
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Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @CHW
FD - 41.29 DK - 27.35
Even by his standards, Sale has been undoubtedly awesome in 2017. He leads all qualified starters in FIP (1.80) and xFIP (2.45), and he's second in Ks/9 (12.45) and top-five in ERA (2.34). He's put himself in the class of pitchers that have to be considered the top option in cash games every time they take the mound. That said, we also have to acknowledge that the fact that the White Sox are somehow not terrible against lefties. In fact, they're the best offense in baseball vs. LHP this season in terms of wOBA and wRC+, and only the Red Sox strike out less in the split. That legitimately gives us something to think about before we pay up at SP, especially with Coors Field on the slate. But here's the thing: every other pitcher on the slate is coming with a pretty significant risk in some form or other, so we'll side with the most talented one and take our chances.
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @PIT
FD - 34.15 DK - 22.48
If you want to play the matchup game and conserve some salary, Robbie Ray is in a decent spot, because the Pirates rank 22nd in wRC+ vs. LHP, and PNC Park is a pretty forgiving venue for pitchers. What we have to watch out for here are the walks. They're the reason we rarely recommend Ray in cash games, and the Pirates could exacerbate his control issues with the third-highest BB% (11.4%) vs. lefties this season. The good news is that Ray seems to have gotten his BABIP issues under control, so even though his free passes are up at a worrisome 4.35 per 9 IP, his FIP (3.65) is actually down a tick, and his run prevention is much improved (3.45 ERA) over last year. He also remains an elite source of Ks (11.1 K/9), so if he can find the zone consistently, he's got the potential to keep pace with Sale, especially when you consider the discount.
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 33.13 DK - 21.99
Through the first two months of 2017, Severino looks like he's in the midst of a breakout season, showing substantial improvement in every metric that matters. He's nearly up to 10 Ks/9, while his walks and homers and both down, resulting in a 2.92 xFIP that proves his 3.11 ERA is the real thing. Taking on the Orioles is never an easy assignment, especially not in Camden Yard, but despite the pedigree in the lineup, they've actually been below average vs. RHP in 2017, ranking 18th with a 95 wRC+ and 19th with a .313 wOBA. They also strike out in a healthy 22% of plate appearances, so while they've definitely got the thump to make a start go sideways quickly, there's some upside here if you can't stomach Ray's control problems or don't want to pay for Sale.
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.49
Speaking of Camden Yard, the short porch in right hogs most of the attention, but it's a top-10 park for right-handed power, too. And speaking of right-handed power, Sanchez still has it, even if he's not putting up the monster numbers of 2016. Whatever trouble he's had this season has actually all come against lefties, because he's still putting up fine numbers vs RHP (.203 ISO, .374 wOBA). Meanwhile, Chris Tillman is about as league-average as it gets, so while we don't feel the need to go out of our way to load up against him, he's perfectly fine to pick on. One caveat: that DK price is pretty steep and might take him out of consideration for cash there. But if you're not punting catcher on FanDuel, Sanchez is the first place we'd look.
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.02 DK - 6.93
If you are punting catcher, here's your guy, because Rupp mashes southpaws. Dating back to last season, he's got a .424 wOBA and .303 ISO in the split. Sure, we're only talking about 110 PAs, but we're also only talking about $2.6k/$3.2k. For those prices, we'll give a little leeway on sample size. Tonight, he'll be facing soft-tossing Justin Nicolino, who has a career .347 wOBA and 5.47 xFIP vs. righties, so if you're paying a premium for pitcher (or anywhere else, for that matter), Rupp makes a excellent place to find some salary relief.
Opponent - NYM (Undecided) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.79 DK - 10.03
It looks like the Mets are going to call on 27-year-old rookie Tyler Pill, who made his major league debut with 2/3 of an inning against the Pirates on Saturday. If so, this'll be a bullpen game, but honestly, the matchup isn't of primary concern here. This pick is mostly about price enforcement (on FD, anyway). Thames has cooled off since blistering just about everything he made contact with in April, but FanDuel has him priced like he's the guy he was as a Blue Jays rookie in 2011. We think we've seen enough from him since then -- both stateside and abroad -- to say we're getting a bargain here. If we drill down into the numbers using April vs. May as an admittedly arbitrary (but easy and still pretty useful) line of demarcation, we see more evidence of bad luck than a hitter who has been exposed. His K:BB hasn't changed dramatically, his 36% hard contact rate in May is still plenty to be productive, and other than trading a handful of line drives for fly balls, very little else has changed in his batted ball profile. All of which leads us to believe the .244 BABIP he's registered in May is probably bogus. So what we do we have in Thames? Obviously, he's not always gonna be the guy who hit 11 bombs in his first 24 games back in the bigs, but he's also not the guy hitting below the Mendoza line in May. He's probably a combination of the two, which equates to a guy who could easily post an OPS north of .850 the rest of the way. Maybe that starts tonight, maybe it doesn't. But when we're getting the kind of deal FanDuel is offering, I'd rather be a day early than a day late.
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.86 DK - 8.96
When Coors Field is on the slate, it's usually imperative to find a solid pivot park if you're choosing to pay up for pitcher, and the Rogers Centre is a tried-and-true option in these situations. Sure, no place really compares to the thin air in Denver, but Toronto's home park offers an top-10 environment for hitters that plays especially well to power and that you don't have to pay a price-hike on. And considering the match-up with a 28-year-old career minor leaguer, that DK price on Morales is looking pretty enticing. He's got a .202 ISO vs. RHP since the beginning of last season, and most of that was accumulated when he was playing half his games in power-sapping Kaufman Stadium.
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @COL
FD - 11.69 DK - 9.58
Another instance here of FanDuel giving us a price that's tough to ignore. Obviously, LeMahieu doesn't come with much power upside, but he's in a good spot against Ariel Miranda in Coors Field. This game opened with the Rockies favored and the over/under set at 11, and the odds have been climbing in Colorado's favor, so don't be surprised if their implied total settles near 6 by the time first pitch arrives. If the Rockies make good on that number, LeMahieu is well-positioned to be in the middle of it. He's got a .397 wOBA vs. lefties since the start of last season, and FanDuel has him priced like this game is being played in Seattle.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.81
If you're staying in this price range but want more upside, Walker presents a sneaky play. Last season he was at his best against lefties, but that was a break from his career norms, so a matchup with Zach Davies is worth considering. The Brewers righty has 4.47 xFIP and .338 wOBA allowed vs. lefties since last season, and the Mets actually opened as the favorite with a 9 total despite having Tyler Pill as the probable starter, so tells you all you need to know about how Vegas views Davies. And Walker has returned to his career averages in 2017, doing his best power work from the left side, posting a .187 ISO with just a 15% K rate.
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Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @COL
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.4
Ok. A few things here. Story has not been very good in 2017. Nobody's gonna argue that. But if you let the sub-.200 batting average and 35% K rate blind you from the fact that he's still got massive upside vs. LHP, we think that'd be a mistake. Granted we're only talking about 40 PAs in 2017, so we won't dwell on the fact that his ISO in the split is nearing .500. Instead, let's look at what he's done since coming into the league last year: .414 wOBA, .351 ISO. Not bad. At 158 PAs, the sample is still pretty small, but it's clear the guy can do major damage vs. southpaws. Of course, the Golden Sombrero is always in play when we're talking about a guy with this much swing-and-miss in his game, but with a reward like this, we're willing to eat some risk.
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.79
Or, for your non-Coors pivot, you could look to the guy Story replaced. Tulo's nothing like the guy he used to be, but we're still talking about a .188 ISO vs. RHP since last year, so you could do a lot worse at this price point. Add to the equation a hitter-friendly park and a pitcher with a history of homer problems in the minors, and we've got an intriguing option at a position where upside usually comes with a heavier price tag.
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.72 DK - 10.4
Injury has kept Donaldson out of commission for most of 2017, but it's also lowered his price, particularly on FanDuel. But even on DK, we like this play quite a bit, because Donaldson has been one of baseball's best hitters since coming to Toronto. He's well-known as a lefty killer, but he was even better vs. RHP last season, and he was awesome without the platoon advantage in 2015, too. All told, over the last 2+ seasons, he's posted a .397 wOBA with a .264 ISO vs. righties. As for Wojciechowski, we don't have much of an MLB track record to go on (20 IP), and he hasn't started a game since 2015, but it's safe to say he'll be significantly outclassed when Donaldson stands in.
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.64 DK - 8.87
It wouldn't be unfair to call Longoria a poor man's Josh Donaldson, and the 180-degree turn he's pulled in terms of platoon splits is even more dramatic. After spending most of his career crushing lefties and scuffling against righties, Longoria flipped last season and has carried the trend over into 2017. In fact, while he's been pretty dreadful against southpaws in 2017, he's holding a .353 wOBA and .242 ISO vs. RHP since the start of last season. That sort of shift runs in contrast to what we expect in terms of splits over the long haul, but against Nick Martinez, it doesn't really matter. He's an equal-opportunity victim and has yielded a .354 wOBA vs. righties over the course of his career.
Consider: Nolan Arenado. Salary cap concerns are the only reason we're not writing him up.
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.54 DK - 10.02
Outfield is usually a decent spot to turn to when you're hunting bargains, but unless we get some out-of-the-ordinary batting order variations, there don't appear to be a lot of great cheap buys at the position on this slate. But even though he'll cost you, the projection system still has Bautista as a nice value tonight. The DK price might take him out of play in cash games, but his FanDuel price should be doable. After a terrible start in 2017, he's been raking lately, putting up a .428 wOBA and .322 ISO in May. What's more important than the hot streak, however, is the evidence that Bautista hasn't fallen off a cliff at 36 years old. Even though his production waned some in 2016, he still has a .222 ISO and a .375 OBP vs. RHP since the beginning of last season, and now that the Toronto lineup is back to full health, the run/RBI opportunities should be ramping up.
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.97
Remember how we said everybody hits Nick Martinez? That .354 wOBA allowed vs. righties is nearly matched by the .347 he gives up vs. lefties. Kiermaier isn't often going to post the kind of line that will bring GPP riches, but he can produce what we need while hitting near the top of the order with a soft matchup in a good park. That .162 ISO he's carrying vs. RHP since the beginning of last season isn't terribly exciting, but it's enough when combined with his ability to run (9 steals in 53 games this year, 21 in 105 last season)
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.25 DK - 7.79
The Twins shuffle their lineup more than maybe any team in baseball, but if Grossman gets the call tonight, he deserves a look. He's an excellent on-base guy, with a .395 OBP and .378 wOBA vs. RHP this season (.374/.342 since last year), and he's typically slotted near the top of a Twins order that's been one of the best offenses in baseball vs. righties this season (5th in wRC+, 6th in wOBA). Also, Mike Fiers is bad and getting worse. His xFIP has gone from 4.04 to 4.12 to 4.67 over the last three seasons, and his ERA is climbing even higher and more quickly.
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