Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/28/17

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Pitcher

Michael Pineda FD 9100 DK 9900
Opponent - OAK (Triggs) Park - @NYY
FD - 35.36 DK - 23.3

On FanDuel and DraftKings, the "main" slate doesn't include Cueto or Kershaw. Therefore, we'll be starting off a bit lower on the pricing spectrum with Michael Pineda. Pineda, a guy who used to be known for having blow-up starts, has yet to have 1 this season. He has done a terrific job locating his primary pitches and rarely walks anyone anymore. He's also striking out as many batters as ever, sitting at a slight career-high 10.23 K/9. He did hold a few 11s and 12s, but not for any large sample size. That is until this year, where Pineda has cut his arsenal from 4 to 5 pitches in hopes of getting better at all of those pitches. Well, it worked. He's holding a career high in SwgStrk%, Z-swing%, and X-swing%. 3 of his 4 pitches have held batters under a .300 wOBA, with the only other pitch facing a .381 BABIP. Pineda looks to be the real deal and while I doubt he sees a clean sheet all season, I also doubt the Athletics are the ones to put him away. While they have a few guys with pop (Davis, Alonso), the strikeout a ton and don't have many good hitters. They have struck out at the 4th highest clip (23.3%) against righties and only look to be on the way down in the past month. With Pineda fairly priced at home against an inept Athletics offense, he is the best play out there on the main slate. He can be used in all formats and makes sense no matter the tourney. With all of that being said, Pineda could end up being highly owned. There are a few decent pivots if you play the all-day slate. Let's take a look at a few options.

Johnny Cueto FD 9100 DK 10800
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @SF
FD - 36.41 DK - 23.96

The Braves are atrocious. I've been saying it for weeks and they kept putting up fluky runs. They're finally settling down to the team they truly are and against righties, that's the worst team in baseball. Without Freddie Freeman, this lineup is EXTREMELY inept. Matt Kemp and Matt Adams are the 2 guys to be somewhat scared of, but not really. They both have high K rates and Kemp against righties is not too intimidating. After that, you run into guys like Tyler Flowers, Rio Ruiz, and Brandon Phillips. A bunch of guys who can't hit and love to strikeout. They run into a pitcher who is one of the toughest in baseball. hile he will occasionally give up some early runs, he will always battle and put up a quality start. Against this Braves team, I think he skips the struggle part tonight. Cueto is one of the only guys around who can still pitch 115 pitches and be ready in 5 days. He's the true definition of a workhorse and with the Giants bullpen reeling, Bochy will let Cueto ride the wave. He's still the same guy he's been over the last 3 years and in AT&T Park, has been dominant as can be. Cueto is an extremely safe cash game play and a guy with as much tournament upside as anyone on the slate.

Clayton Kershaw, while not on the main slate, deserves a mention. If you're playing the all-day slate with the CHC @ LAD game, he is an elite way to go. On the lower end, Joe Ross is the only guy standing out as of now. Keep an eye on the optimizer as a lot can change in 12 hours.

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 3100 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.73
Evan Gattis FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @HOU
FD - 5.41 DK - 4.11

As I write this, the Houston Astros hold the 2nd biggest implied team total outside of Coors Field. At 5.03 implied runs, we can target this entire lineup, starting with the 2 catchers. Depending on who ends up making the lineup, they are both in play. Asher, who is not very good at all, is worse against lefties. Brian McCann is a bit "safer", though neither of these guys should ever be associated with that word. McCann and Gattis both hit righties better this season, with McCann actually showing more power this far. We'll touch on Alec Asher a bit more as we move on, but he's not good. He's a young righty without much potential and a whole lot of luck. Things are going to start turning around for Asher this season and today could be the beginning. The Astros are probably the best offense in baseball right now and not one you want to face off with at home. Expect the 'Stros to send Asher packing early. All in all, McCann is a bit better in cash games with Gattis being the preferred tournament play. Both are in play for all formats if you're adamant.

Gary Sanchez FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Triggs) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.51

Gary Sanchez against a bad righty. Surprise, surprise. This is a catcher we will target a ton this season, as his power profile is on a different level from the rest of the position. He has a great chance to bang one out today, facing off with the Oakland Athletics and Andrew Triggs. While Triggs hasn't been terrible, he's been worse against righties. So far in 2017, he's holding a .321 wOBA against righties while striking out just 16% of them. Fortunately for us and the Yanks, Triggs is also running into some good luck. He's going to start allowing more runners to score and the ball will start dropping more as well. While Sanchez isn't rostered for anything other than an HR, there's a god shot at one tonight. While the boys in Houston are still preferred in cash, you can't go wrong with Gary Sanchez at home against a reverse-splits righty. Also, like a lot of guys, Sanchez is stupendously cheap on FD.

Consider - Alex Avila, Russell Martin

First Base

Joey Votto FD 4500 DK 5000
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.46

On a slate with so much going on, expect a guy like Joey Votto to fly under the radar. He's not on one of the more popular offenses and is also not a very flashy hitter. However, he's easily my favorite high-end 1B. To start, Zach Eflin is beyond putrid against lefties. It's that simple. Since making his debut in 2016, Eflin has allowed a .380 wOBA against and 15 home runs in just over 50 innings. Yes, THAT BAD. The Reds left-handed bats are firmly in play today and should end up being one of the lower owned stacks. Votto, as we all know, is a top 10 hitter against righties. He's posted a .390+ wOBA against them for years now and is still the guy in the lineup you want to avoid at all costs. Unfortunately for a lot of pitchers, they don't have that option with Billy Hamilton and/or Jose Peraza breathing down their neck. Votto is also moving from one great park to another, Citizens Bank. CBP plays well for lefty power, as well as gap to gap doubles. Votto is an elite cash game option and just as good of a tournament play. Don't be fooled by the flashiness, Votto gets it done.

Kendrys Morales FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.81

Kendrys Morales is another guy who seems to fly under the radar. It makes a lot of sense. He's an older player who has played most of his career in small-market teams. He's now on the Blue Jays, who haven't been able to score more than a run in 8 years. In all seriousness, he's probably the 2nd best hitter behind Donaldson. Against righties in particular, Morales is great. He's posted 8 homers against righties so far this year and holds a 37% hard contact rate. He drives the ball hard to every field and as a switch-hitter, will always hold the platoon advantage. The opposing pitcher, Andrew Cashner, is nothing to be afraid. He's an extremely underwhelming righty without much promise. He floats the ball around the zone and has relied on an unrealistic BABIP to start the year. He's held a .360-.380 wOBA against lefties for years now and nothing points to that changing. Feel free to target Morales in any format, as his price is fair. On Draftkings, where most players are astronomically priced, Morales is just $3600. He's a prime option in all formats over there.

Hanley Ramirez FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - SEA (Bergman) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.74

When a team holds the highest implied team total on the slate, you must take notice. The Red Sox are currently implied to score 5.75 runs, which is higher than both teams in Coors Field. Bergman, who is a righty, may be the worst pitcher in the league against righties. He may be the most inept player in baseball at doing his job. It's that bad. Through 97 innings and 4 years, Bergman is allowing a .427 wOBA to righties. He hasn't improved, either. He's holding a worse wOBA now than he did in 2014, so I really don't know why he's anywhere near the majors. He now moves into Fenway Park to take on a top 3 offense in baseball. Good luck? He has no chance here ad the Sox are going to put up runs. Hanley, who is better against lefties, has been just fine (.342 wOBA) against righties. He uses the monster very well and has a great chance of putting one out tonight. He is pretty cheap on FanDuel, where he figures to be one of the top tournament options.

Consider - Matt Carpenter, Miguel Cabrera, Yulieski Gurriel

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - SEA (Bergman) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.5 DK - 9

We just touched on the Red Sox, so you can take a look at Hanley for a little more of an explanation. Like I said, Christian Bergman is absolutely atrocious against righties. Atrocious. Like Jered Weaver in 10 years bad. I see a real chance of him lasting less than 3 innings. He simply can't get righties out and these aren't guys who are going to get themselves out. Not right now at least. Pedroia, like the rest of this order, has been swinging the bat well. While typically better against lefties, Pedroia doesn't really care. He's going to hold a .330-.350 wOBA against both lefties and righties, while driving in a bunch of runs and getting driven in plenty. Once the Red Sox get past Christian Bergman, don't expect much out of the Mariners bullpen. They have 1 lefty and 1 righty long reliever (they both hold .340+ wOBA's) in Rzepczynski and Zych. Expect a nice showing out of the Red Sox in a game Vegas thinks will be very high-scoring (10 over/under).

DJ LeMahieu FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @COL
FD - 11.51 DK - 9.43

Of course, Coors Field is one of the top places to target on the day. I could have listed 8 guys from the game, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to know those guys are in play. Instead, let's touch on the game here with D.J. LeMahieu, at least from the Rockies side. Lance Lynn will take the mound for the Cards, who is a guy that is getting very lucky. While it's true that he's much worse against lefties, you can ignore the dominant numbers against righties. He's holding a .152 BABIP against righties, which is currently the lowest in baseball. Guys are going to start putting it where the gloves aren't and the runs will start pouring in. Coors Field is a good place for that monsoon to begin. While LeMahieu is one of the top options in the lineup, he doesn't have the same upside as a CarGo, Blackmon, or Arenado. All 3 of those guys are in play here and should be lower owned than normal with so many offenses in play. It always seems like Coors Field puts up 25 runs when nobody is paying attention to it. No matter what happens, nobody will be surprised if they look back and see a 14-9 run game in Coors Field. If you get a stack going on a day like this, you can ride Coors to the top of a tournament. On the other hand, stacking Coors means you have to ignore the Astros and Red Sox, at least for the most part. This day should be a fun one.

Consider - Jose Altuve, Dee Gordon

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Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.7 DK - 10.31

While I'm not sure if this is a hot take or not, I think Trea Turner ends up being one of the best players in the league. I think he has the type of intangibles to be a legend. While that's definitely pushing it, this isn't some normal young SS making a good impression. This is a guy with Billy Hamilton speed,  Daniel Murphy power, and Dustin Pedroia brains. This is a guy who will hit 30 homers and steal 30 bases on most years. He's gotten extremely unlucky to start the year, but has still held a .323 wOBA against righties while hitting the ball hard to all fields (32% pull). The upside is limitless with Turner, as he's one of the leading candidates to hit an HR and steal a base every night. While most righties are better against lefties, Turne doesn't fit that mold. Last season, he held a .413 wOBA against righties. We will see how he finishes this season, but I expect nothing less than great. The Nats face off with Jhoulys Chacin, who has allowed a .361 combined wOBA. While worse against lefties, he will struggle as a whole with this lineup. He also can't hold runners and is throwing to a catcher who is fairly average (Hedges). Turner is an elite cash game option and can get almost as many points as an HR with just a single, SB and scored run.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - SEA (Bergman) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.98 DK - 9.59

While the Red Sox hold the highest implied team total on the day, I don't think the ownership reflects that. Don't get me wrong, these guys aren't sneaky. They will be owned and they are on a lot of radars. However, there are A LOT of ways to go tonight. At every position. People are sometimes hesitant to target righties against righties, when they can take a lefty in a different game. In turn, I don't think any of these guys see over 25% in cash games. While a guy like Betts or Hanley may push that number, I think you can pull a full team stack for solid ownership. Bogaerts in particular, has been great this season. He currently holds a .384 wOBA aginst righties and is just finally starting to garner some power. There isn't much else to say about Bergman. He's simply horrible against righties. The Sox are one of the top offenses of the night and could come in a bit sneaky. Trea Turner is still preferred as a 1-off, though I don't think you leave Bogaerts off of a Sox stack in any scenario.

Consider - Xander Bogaerts, Asdrubal Cabrera

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TOR
FD - 5.92 DK - 4.49

Poor Andrew Cashner. Once a guy with All-star potential and quality "stuff", is now relying on an unrealistic BABIP to just stay average. Currently holding a combined .241 BABIP, Cashner is going to fall soon.He will return to the .370 wOBA having righty he was last year and the year before. Oh ya, some guy named Josh Donaldson is back as well. Yep, the same guy who won MVP 2 years ago and is quite possibly a top 5 hitter when healthy. While better (maybe the best) against lefties, he still held a .391 wOBA against righties in the last 2 seasons combined. Remember, this is a guy we we're willing to pay close to $5.5k for on both sites with no questions asked just last year. While he' surely not 100% as of yet, he's said to be very close. He got yesterday off and should be in the lineup, though I would definitely keep a keen eye out as you never know how the Jays may be handling the situation. If Donaldson is in there, you almost have the pull the trigger on FanDuel. He should be priced with Arenado and Bryant, but is instead sitting next to Shaw and Rendon. Jump on Donaldson before his prices go to the moon, where it belongs.

Alex Bregman FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.83 DK - 7.02

Bregman is a guy you want to target on FanDuel. On DraftKings, he is priced correctly and maybe a bit over-priced. Bregman, a youngster like most of these guys, has been better against righties, holding a .340 combined wOBA since entering the league. He's also held a .367 wOBA at home, compared to the .328 on the road. Bregman has already run into a ton of struggles this season, and to see him still pushing is impressive. Remember, he was drafted just a year and a half ago out of LSU. He will have an RBI opportunity or two today, with the possibility of driving in a ton of runs. Alec Asher, who we touched on, is simply below average. With a weak 4 pitch arsenal, Asher has only 1 pitch that is considered +, his fastball. However, it's the pitch that is easiest to hit for righties, seeing they posted a .341 wOBA in 2016 against it. This entire Astros lineup is in order and Bregman is a cheap option in the middle of it all.

Consider - Miguel Sano, Nick Castellanos

Outfield

George Springer FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.5 DK - 9.79
Carlos Beltran FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.78
Josh Reddick FD 3500 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.77 DK - 9.18

I know, this seems like a lot. I originally had just Springer and Beltran here, but couldn't think of a reason why Josh Reddick shouldn't join them. If you feel like running an OF trio and being crazy, this is a good way to go. However, you don't need to do that. You can pick 1 or 2 of these guys and pair them with a 'Stros catcher for a mini stack. All 3 of these guys hit righties well, holding .365+ wOBA's. The prices on these guys aren't overwhelming, either. On FanDuel, it's like they're almost teasing you with Beltran. Springer is the riskiest of the bunch, as he's an HR or bust against righties for the most part. Beltran and Reddick are a bit safer, though this is baseball and some would argue that's not a real thing. Point being, these are guys who will put the ball in play and give you a better chance of getting some success. Alec Asher, the Astros opposing pitcher, is nothing to be afraid of. Once he's out of the game, you can bet on the Oril=oles tossing some gas cans, especially if they are way behind in the game. All in all, the Astros are one of the top lineups on the day, with the outfield being a huge reason for it.

David Peralta FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.93 DK - 7.94

I could of went Betts/Benintendi here, but I'm pretty sure you know hoe bad Christian Bergman is now. Let's touch on this Diamondbacks team, who's a bit weird to target when on the road. They play a lot better in Chase Field, though Lamb and Peralta are always in play against righties. The D-Backs face off with Jimmy Nelson here, who is an easy pitcher to target. He's bad against lefties, as evident by his .321 wOBA and .221 BABIP. Things are going to get worse for Nelson, who is already on the verge of losing his spot. Peralta is still the same dominant hitter against lefties he was in 2015. We had a few comments saying he was now a horrible hitter, but it was clear that was untrue. When looking at his peripherals, he has continuously hit the ball hard against righties and has a great eye against them as well. Miller Park may not be nearly as friendly as Chase Field, though it's still a nice hitting ballpark. The D-Backs are an interesting team to target tonight and Peralta is the head of the snake. Pair him with Jake Lamb for a solid combo.

Corey Dickerson FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.33
Kevin Kiermaier FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 9.71 DK - 8.09

Ervin Santana was originally starting here, which has knocked the projections down for the Rays. While we haven't touched on them just yet, this team is definitely in play. Kyle Gibson is one of the worst pitchers in the game and won't be around for too much longer. We want to target him with both lefties and righties, as he's allowed a .391 wOBA when you combine the last 2 seasons. He can't get anyone out and also has a ton of trouble holding runners. Both Corey Dickerson and Kevin Kiermaier are good against righties, with both of them having a lot of upside. Dickerson, who is elite against righties, has been on fire and is finally showing why the Rays paid him. As for Kiermaier, he derives a lot of his upside from stolen bases. He also has some mpower in his back pocket, which is never a bad thing. Kyle Gibson will once against struggle to get out of the 5th inning and both of these guys should play a big role. I like both of them in all formats.

Consider - Nomar Mazara, Cardinals / Rockies, Red Sox, Michael Conforto, Scott Schebler, Domingo Santana

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