Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer throws in the first inning of their baseball game against the San Francisco Giants Friday, Aug. 14, 2015, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
What a difference a day makes when it comes to daily fantasy baseball. Not only did we already have a limited field yesterday but the NYY/KC and CIN/CLE games were both postponed and the Mets held out Jacob deGrom due to inclement weather in the area. It ended up working out as Drew Pomeranz give us his best performance of the season.Tonight will be stressful but for a different reason. We have to now choose between multiple elite pitchers and also find some value at the hitter positions to fit them in. Let's jump in and take a look at who the system likes tonight.
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Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @WSH
FD - 46.88 DK - 30.94
No surprises right at the top as Mad Max is on the bump for the Nationals. Before getting into the matchup let's first talk about Scherzer. His price has pretty much stayed in the same range all season and it's due to his consistency and upside. He has allowed more than three earned runs just once in nine starts which has given him a total of seven quality starts(important on FanDuel). Not only that, he is an elite strikeout machine with his 15.1% swing strike rate that is producing an 11.5 K/9 rate in 2017. Now we can get to the plus matchup that makes Scherzer a near lock, at least in cash games tonight. We discuss the Padres almost daily in our articles and in the chatroom and it is for targeting against them. Sure they have been a bit better vs. right-handed pitching this season but they still rank dead last in the category with a .262 wOBA and 60 wRC+ while striking out over 24% of the time.
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @MIN
FD - 35.99 DK - 23.76
If you are playing tournaments and looking for a pivot off Scherzer or deGrom who are both in great spots, take a look at Chris Archer tonight. He is the cheapest of the three in the $10k+ range and that has to do with his inconsistency more than anything. He has allowed three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts but consistency is not why we roster a guy like Archer. The pick is completely based on his strikeout upside. After not recording a double-digit strikeout game in his first six starts, he has now done it in three of is last four games and sits with a 10.7 K/9 rate coming into this start tonight. He will face off vs. a Twins team that has been above average over the past seven days but ranks near the bottom when looking at their splits vs. right-handed pitching. With the other options available, you won't need to turn to Archer in cash games but like I said, he makes a great GPP pivot with big upside.
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.47
Weather doesn't look like it will be a problem in New York tonight so Gary Sanchez once again sits right at the top of the raw points projections, and by a sizeable margin. From a PTS/$ perspective, he is a much better play on FanDuel as the fourth ranked in salary and $500 less than Buster Posey. He comes with huge power upside from the catcher position hitting for power in an excellent hitters park and has shown a wide gap in his reverse splits. Through just over 300 plate appearances in his young career, Sanchez has posted a wOBA(.427) over a 100 points higher vs. right-handed pitching and a wRC+ that is 70 points higher. There are better options on DraftKings tonight if you are paying up for pitching but Sanchez is in play in all formats on FanDuel.
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.23 DK - 6.45
Normally on these slate's with at least one elite pitcher, I prefer to punt the position and always seem to turn to Norris when he is facing an average to bad southpaw. Enter Hector Santiago who comes with a below average 91 mph fastball and an overall arsenal that is only producing an 8% swing strike rate and 5.9 K/9 rate. Worse yet, he is allowing 35.6% hard contact against that has caught up to him recently as he has given up four home runs over his last two starts. Norris is not safe( the reason why the price is so low) but provides a ton of salary relief to get you to an elite pitcher and some top bats at other, more important positions.
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.79
This may be the first Red Sox player in the article but it definitely won't be the last. While the home runs have been a bit lacking lately the overall run production sure hasn't. After posting 32 runs across going into Thursday's game, they have already scored four after a rain delay to start the game. Even Xander Bogaerts got his first home run of the year so you know everything is going their way. For Hanley, it has been a productive start to the year with six home runs, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored. The average is down slightly but we can expect that to normalize to a .280-.290 mark as the season wears on. Great spot tonight to keep the runs coming facing Yovani Gallardo who just isn't missing bats(6.6 K/9 & low 7.9% swing strike rate) and sits with an ERA just under six for the season.
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.88 DK - 10.1
Before getting into Thames I will warn you that he is not safe. He has cooled off a ton since his red-hot April but makes a high-upside GPP pivot on both sites. People have jumped off the train about as fast as they jumped on so he will be a player that should be very low owned and has a ton of opportunity. Although the average as dropped off the table in May(.236), he is still producing elite hard contact(40%) and walking close to 15% of the time. That works for me hitting second in a Brewers lineup that ranks Top 5 in overall runs scored this season.
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.65 DK - 8.8
An early look at the projections Thursday night gives us Kendrys Morales sitting right at the top of the PTS/$ value rankings on FanDuel and pretty close to the top on DraftKings. This value could be crucial in lineup construction on Friday as we shift to a slate with a ton of high-end pitching options to pay up for. Morales doesn't quite have the average Jays fans were hoping for(I know, I am one that had high expectations) but a lot of that has to do with him being one of the only healthy bodies on the team getting the opposition pitcher's best stuff. What he has provided is a nice boost of power and as he sits with eight home runs, 25 RBI and has also scored 20 runs which is impressive considering the Jays didn't score many runs in April. If you are paying up for pitching, Morales makes sense in all formats tonight.
Opponent - TOR (Bolsinger) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.13 DK - 8.17
The projection system prefers value at the second base position tonight and it starts with Rouged Odor. He hasn't provided the upside we saw last season when he hit 33 home runs but he has been consistent with hits in 15 of his last 20 starts. The career low .207 average is more than due for some positive regression as his BABIP currently sits at .229 which is over 55 points lower than his career mark. To back these numbers up a bit as they can sometimes be misleading, Odor is making hard contact over 35% of the time which is actually a tick higher than last season and 4% higher than his career average. Luck seems to be playing a big part in the early struggles so I hesitate to worry just yet, especially in a plus matchup.
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.66 DK - 8.13
While Hernandez doesn't come with the overall power upside of Odor, he makes the better choice if you are looking for a little more safety in your lineups. His numbers almost mirror those from last season as he sits with a .286 average, .332 wOBA and 103 wRC+ through 44 games and has already added four home runs after recording just six in 2016. The main reason he shows up in the article and the projections today is the matchup vs. Tim Adleman who has given up nine earned runs over his last 5.2 innings pitched with six walks and just four strikeouts. His lower price on both sites makes him an excellent salary relief option in all formats.
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Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.64
As usual, the shortstop position is absolutely loaded at the top forcing us to make a decision between Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. The system loves both guys but I lean on Bogaerts tonight as the Red Sox have been on absolute fire lately. Before Thursday's game, they had scored 32 runs in their previous three games and just wrapped up the sweep of Rangers beating them 6-2. In that game, Bogaerts finally hit his first home run of the season after posting a .367 wOBA and 129 wRC+ through his first 41 games. If you watched the game and seen him dance down to first you could almost see the monkey being shed off his back. That should only ignite him moving forward and he gets another plus matchup tonight vs. Yovani Gallardo.
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.48 DK - 9.27
From one rising star at the position to another in Francisco Lindor. He finished the 2016 season with an impressive .301 average, 15 home runs, 78 RBI, and 99 runs scored. While the average is a tick lower to start the 2017 season, the power appears to have hit the next level. Through his first 45 games, he has already hit 10 long balls thanks to an increase of 16% on his fly ball rate and 6% on his hard contact rate. From a fantasy perspective, I will take the trade-off of average for power any day. Roster Lindor with confidence in all formats.
Opponent - TOR (Bolsinger) Park - @TOR
FD - 9.39 DK - 8.03
While I prefer Lindor on DraftKings at just $400 more, it will be hard to pass up Andrus on FanDuel if you are paying up for Scherzer, Archer, or deGrom tonight. He is another player that isn't going to flash the upside but is in a great situation hitting primarily out of the two or three hole in the Rangers lineup. He has never hit 10 home runs in a season but has already picked up five in 2017 while driving in 21 and scoring 23 runs. While he has been slightly better vs. southpaws for his career, it has been the opposite in 2017 as he sits with a wOBA(.324) that is 45 points higher vs. right-handed pitching.
Opponent - MIN (Santiago) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.19
Back on the value train at third base on Friday as the projections clearly have a man crush on Evan Longoria, at least on FanDuel where he seems to be grossly under-priced. The average has fallen off so far in 2017 as he is hitting just .246 but the walk rate has doubled and in turn, he is scoring runs(23). Longoria, although he hasn't shown it early in the season, is a much better hitter vs. left-handed pitching and he gets to face a poor one in Hector Santiago tonight. Santiago has a tough time missing bats(8% swing strike rate) and has struggled to keep the ball in the park recently, giving up four home runs over his last two starts. All signs point to Longoria being one of the top third basemen tonight, at least from a PTS/$ perspective.
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @COL
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.9
Believe it or not, this is our first trip Coors Field in the article. I am as stunned as you are but don't worry you are likely to see more in the stacks article and video later on today. The park factor is definitely not the only thing that bumps Gyorko up the list tonight at the position. After posting a career-high 30 home runs in his first season with the Cardinals in 2016, he has gotten off to an even hotter start in 2017. Through 37 games he has hit seven home runs with 18 RBI and 19 runs scored but the most impressive part is the .331 average and .381 OBP he has posted. Add up the hot start, the fact he hits cleanup, and the great matchup going into Coors and you have yourself a high floor, high upside play that is safe in all formats.
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.5 DK - 11.82
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.77
The projections once again love the Red Sox and it makes perfect sense. They have been a top three projected offense for a few days in a row and have not let fantasy owners down. Going into Thursday night's game they had scored 32 runs in their previous three games. The only problem and I am nitpicking a little, is that of those 32 runs they have only hit one home run in the closing game of the series vs. the A's. I am not worried at all as both Betts and Benintendi bring a well-rounded game to the table. Betts is clearly the top play of the two and has seen his salary start to drop again after peaking in mid-May. His average is a little lower than we would like from an elite priced player but don't be mistaken he is a .300+ hitter that supplies power(seven home runs after posting 31 last season) and speed(six steals after back to back seasons with 20+). Benintendi's numbers almost mirror Betts through the first 40+ games as both are hitting .287 going into Thursday night with six steals and Benintendi has shown a bit of pop with five long balls. If you are paying up for pitching tonight in cash games, Benintendi makes a nice pivot at a value price as the Red Sox will once again be a highly projected team due to the matchup vs. Gallardo.
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.36
You heard it hear first. Joey Bats is back! At least for now, let's be realistic. He is a very streaky hitter so jump on board while you can as he is red hot. Things were not this way in April when he hit .178 with one home run but May has been a different story. He is currently slashing .318/.421/.638 this month with seven home runs, 16 RBI, and 18 runs scored. Tonight he gets another plus matchup as he will face A.J. Griffin who may be a bit on the lucky side of a 4-1 record. He comes into tonight giving up 57% fly balls with 38.6% hard contact which have resulted in seven home runs against over the last two starts. Bautista makes a nice pivot off the top priced players at the position and comes with huge upside tonight.
Opponent - CIN (Adleman) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.4 DK - 7.86
If it's salary relief you are after to get to the top pitchers, consider Herrera tonight. Looking at his numbers, he is not a safe option with a low .270 wOBA but is in a great spot on Friday. It starts with his matchup vs. Bronson Arroyo who has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts and eight home runs in his last three starts. It truly feels like he has been doing this since before I even played baseball back in the day. Be sure to check lineups prior to lock as Herrera's value will increase if he ends up in the top half of the lineup again.
**Update - Tim Adleman is making the start today for the Reds not Bronson Arroyo like originally reported**
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View Comments
Here is a copy of my starting pitcher sheet for the day - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_t6ahMBaINPPeONO8MZTVvCIK6MFugnjmXYXV03wZ-M/edit?usp=sharing
Are the detroit tigers players for game 2 on fanduel? I dont know how that works