New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom works against a Los Angeles Dodgers batter during the first inning in Game 5 of baseball's National League Division Series Thursday, Oct. 15, 2015, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Alex Gallardo)
Welcome back for another full day of Thursday baseball. Six teams will receive an off day leaving us with a six-game early slate and a five-game main slate. If you want to get action on the Reds and Indians, be sure to join the All-Day slate on either site today. Let's jump right into the picks where I will highlight some of the top plays in both slates. Not enough? Be sure to check out my stacks and pitchers article posted on the DFSR homepage. Good luck out there!
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Early Slate
Opponent - KC (Almonte) Park - @NYY
FD - 32.88 DK - 21.59
An early look at the projections tells us that the early slate most definitely has a GPP feel today, especially when Tanaka is at the top of the list. After closing out the month of April with three straight wins and winning the first two in May, Tanaka has taken a nose dive the past two starts. He has given up seven home runs and 14 total earned runs while striking out just seven batters and walking four. While that alone should set off alarm bells, there is some good news. The Yankees are big early favorites(-185) putting Tanaka in a great spot to get back on track. He faces a Royals team that ranks dead last in total runs scored(153) and 27th in wOBA(.295) and wRC+(81) vs. right-handed pitching. While he is nowhere near safe, you are going to be hard pressed to find another option who is Thursday afternoon. Take the upside and plus matchup and roll with Tanaka.
Main Slate
Opponent - SD (Lamet) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.78 DK - 27.46
The main slate has a few more options to consider at the pitcher position with three teams currently a -185 or better home favorites. We will start right at the top with Jacob deGrom and his beautiful flowing hair. The price is getting pretty steep as he has reached a season high on both sites but has everything going for him and is a terrific target in all formats. It starts with the matchup vs. Padres who have scored fewer runs than just two teams(KC, SF) and rank near the bottom of the league in both wOBA and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching while striking out at a 24.9% clip. That is great news for deGrom's upside as he has struck out more than 10 batters in four of his nine starts and comes into tonight's matchup with an elite 12.3 K/9 rate and 15.3% swinging strike rate.
Early Slate
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.05 DK - 6.35
I was originally going to suggest using Gary Sanchez vs. Miguel Almonte making his first major league start or even Matt Wieters vs. a southpaw. Both are in great spots if they start but it's not likely with a day game after a night game. I turn to value at the position with Francisco Cervelli of the Pirates who got the night off Wednesday so surely will get the start today. He isn't near as safe as the other options I mentioned but has already tripled his home run count from last season and is already halfway to his career high in RBI. He sits with a .159 ISO through 37 games which is his highest since 2013 when he was in pinstripes. His value only goes up if he is back in the five hole on Thursday so make sure to watch for the lineups early in the morning.
Main Slate
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BOS
FD - 8.6 DK - 6.66
It's a little more clear at the position on the main slate as we turn to one of the hottest hitting catchers in the league. He is currently 0 for 3 on Wednesday night, as of writing this, but went into that game with a .410/.429/.590 slash line over the last 14 days. Lucroy, although he hasn't walked much(2.4%) in that time, has been a tough out as he is striking out under 5% of the time. After starting the season near the bottom of the Rangers order, he has made his way up to the cleanup spot adding a ton of value, especially on FanDuel where the price hasn't completely caught up. To add even more safety to the pick, Lucroy has also crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .399 wOBA and 152 wRC+ 32 at-bats. He is safe in all formats on FanDuel but at a price over $4K on DraftKings, makes more of a GPP play tonight.
Early Slate
Opponent - LAA (Wright) Park - @TB
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.12
Morrison and the Rays were originally slated to face Alex Meyer but he hit the 10-day disabled on Wednesday. Instead, they will face Daniel Wright who will make the spot start and comes into the matchup with a sub 5.0 K/9 rate, 5.54 ERA and even worse 5.68 xFIP. This is great news for LoMo who is already having a fantastic start to his second season with the Rays. Through 45 starts, he already has picked up 12 home runs, 32 RBI and 21 runs scored to go with a respectable, above-average .360 wOBA. In May, Morrison has also been the Rays primary cleanup hitter and has hits in 15 of 18 games this month. He makes a great play on his own or as a part of a Rays stack.
Main Slate
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.97
If you are paying up for one high-end bat today, give strong consideration to Paul Goldschmidt. With the exception of Justin Bour(who is on another planet right now), Goldy has been the hottest first basemen in the game over the past 14 days with a .455 wOBA and 177 wRC+ with four home runs and 14 runs scored. He has helped the D-Backs to a top five ranking in runs scored and one of the most lethal offenses in baseball. While they lead all of baseball vs. southpaws last season, it has been the complete opposite in 2017 as they rank first in wOBA and third in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching. And who leads the team? Goldy, of course, with his .476 wOBA and 190 wRC+ vs. righties. Fire him up in all formats.
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.1 DK - 7.68
If you are playing deGrom on DraftKings in the main slate, you are likely not going to be able to afford Goldy and will have to drop down a tier or two. While Moreland hits outside the top four in the order for the Red Sox, he has been hot lately and shown some pop in his bat. With two hits yesterday he has pushed his hit streak to six games which have included three home runs and eight RBI. He and the Red Sox also get a great matchup vs. one of the worst pitchers on the slate. Nick Martinez, while limiting opponents to 26% hard contact, has not missed many bats(6.4% swing strike rate & 4.8 K/9 rate) and has given up multiple home runs in three of his six starts this season. Hello Red Sox stack!
Early Slate
Opponent - CHC (Butler) Park - @CHC
FD - 7.58 DK - 6.01
With his rising price on DraftKings, you are better off paying up for a Cano or Murphy but on FanDuel Panik is one of the top PTS/$ values on the early slate at just $2,700. The price adjustment has come slow for Panik on FanDuel since he was moved up to the top of the Giants order at the beginning of May. While the numbers haven't been there yet the opportunity is enough to insert him into our lineups today, especially against Eddie Butler who has walked as many batters(8) as he has struck out through his first two starts. If you find yourself with leftover salary cap, don't hesitate to pay up for one of the top bats at the position on the early slate.
Main Slate
Dustin Pedroia FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.6
On the main slate, take a more safe approach at the position and roll with Pedroia. While the upside is somewhat lacking, he has been incredibly consistent once again this season hitting .293 with an above average .365 on-base percentage and extremely low 8.3% strikeout rate. He comes with nice value hitting second in the order, sandwiched between some very talented bats in Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaearts. As you can probably tell, I will be heavily picking on Nick Martinez tonight as he struggles to miss bats and is very susceptible to a blow-up game. Pedroia is an excellent stand-alone play or as a part of a high-upside Red Sox stack.
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Early Slate
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.53 DK - 10.16
Once again the projection system absolutely loves Trea Turner, even as the most expensive shortstop on DraftKings. While he has not quite posted the elite numbers he showed in 73 games last season, he has flashed multi-facet fantasy game we all come to expect with this up and coming superstar. He has already hit nine doubles, two triples, four home runs and stolen nine bases through the first 34 games and once he makes an adjustment to lower the strikeouts, we will quickly see the average and all other numbers quickly come up. The biggest thing with Turner is the opportunity he is getting as the leadoff hitter for the #1 offense in baseball with high-upside hitters like Harper, Zimmerman, and Murphy hitting behind him.
Main Slate
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.35 DK - 9.09
Back to picking on Nick Martinez on the main slate. After hitting 21 long balls in 2016, Bogaerts oddly enough has yet to hit one in 2017 but that hasn't stopped him from being extremely productive. With two hits on Wednesday night, he has now hit safely in 18 of 21 starts in the month of May including 10 multi-hit games and 17 runs scored. The big difference for Bogaerts has been the approach at the plate as he has lowered his fly ball rate by 13% which in turn has boosted the ground balls by over 10%. Once he gets back to elevating the ball the home runs will come but as long as he is getting on base and scoring a ton of runs, he will continue to be an excellent fantasy play.
Early Slate
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.95 DK - 8.57
While I don't particularly like the fact he hits down in the Nats order, I do love the matchup vs. southpaw Ariel Miranda. Not only is Rendon crushing lefties early this season(.500 wOBA/210 wRC+), but he has a .301 average for his career with .365 wOBA putting, even more, legitimacy on his splits. Since his three home run, six-hit cycle at the end of April, Rendon has fallen off a bit but is starting to come back into form vs. the Mariners as he is coming off a home run last night and a double dong on Tuesday. He is safe in all formats.
Main Slate
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.53 DK - 8.11
If you are planning on fading Jacob deGrom on the main slate to load up on bats, there is no better place to start than the Diamondbacks. The Red Sox are currently the only team on the slate with a higher implied run projection which is only going to help keep the D-Backs ownership in check. I talked about Goldy above and prefer him over Lamb if you are choosing just one guy, but Lamb is most definitely in play at his peak price. He is coming off back to back games with a home run and has picked up at least one hit in 11 of his last 12 games pushing his average up above .280 for the season to go with 13 bombs and a league leading 40 runs driven in. The upside is through the roof and while he takes a slight dip in park factor, it is very little as Miller Park has always been a hitters haven.
Opponent - SD (Lamet) Park - @NYM
FD - 4.52 DK - 3.52
If deGrom is the answer for you at pitcher tonight, you are most likely going to want to mine some value at the position and no better place to start than his own teammate. The original projection on Flores is low but that will likely see a big boost in the morning as the Mets are in a great spot vs. the Padres and Flores has been red hot. He has picked up a hit in four straight and seven of his last eight games with four multi-hit efforts, three doubles and a home run. The overall value obviously will depend on his place in the order but he hit fifth last night and has hit inside the top six in five of his last six games. He is an excellent salary relief option who is safe for cash games and comes with upside for tournaments.
Early Slate
Opponent - KC (Almonte) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.29 DK - 8.7
Opponent - KC (Almonte) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.55
The Yankees are in a great spot today as early -190 favorites with close to the highest implied run projection of any team all day. The offense starts with the igniter at the top of the lineup in Brett Gardner who would be more of the cash game option with his track record of consistency. Not counting 2012 where he played just 16 games, Gardner has scored 80 or more runs in six straight seasons and comes into tonight with an elite. 373 on base percentage. Not that Judge hasn't been consistent but the sample size is much smaller and he strikes out close to 10% more than Gardner and with his high .383 BABIP, is due for some regression in the average category. That doesn't stop the 6'7" monster from having as much upside as anyone on the slate. He has already hit 15 home runs this season, 12 of which have come off right-handed pitching whom he has a .463 wOBA and .200 wRC+ against. Both players make great one-off selections or part of a Yankee stack.
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.16 DK - 7.91
The man in black we will call him as he comes with no picture in his profile but don't worry, he is a real person. Not only that, he is a pretty good ball player in a great a situation for real life and fantasy purposes. He hit over .300 in both AA and AAA for the Pirates and even in a brief 66 game stint in the big leagues last year. He is now getting an opportunity to play every day with Starling Marte out of the picture for awhile longer and is making the most of it. Since returning from injury on the 12th of May, Frazier has hit over .400 with 164 wRC+ and has hits in nine of 10 starts. Safe in all formats.
Main Slate
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.46
The man, the myth, the legend. He is at least playing the part so far since returning to the lineup and is coming off a well-deserved day of rest. Through his first 11 games and 45 plate appearances, Martinez has hit a ridiculous six home runs with a .565 wOBA and 271 wRC+ to boot. He is, no doubt, going to regress but ride that train while it's full steam ahead, especially in an optimal matchup. He faces Mike Fiers today who has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park this season with a league-high 17 home runs against(34% HR/FB rate and at least one in each start!).
Opponent - BOS (Pomeranz) Park - @BOS
FD - 7.64 DK - 6.12
Rua makes a nice salary relief, punt play if you are loading up on deGrom tonight. The price is low due to the slow start that saw him hit just .175 in the month of April with a very high 38% K rate. He has turned it around in May slashing .300/.400/.567 in 17 games with two home runs and seven RBI and has cut his K rate in half(20%). While the matchup isn't perfect, Rua has positive splits vs. left-handed pitching in his career and Pomeranz comes into this start with a 17% HR/FB rate due to high 36% hard contact rate against.
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Here is a copy of my pitcher sheet for tomorrow as well. Green highlighted is for early slate. Opponent stats and bullpen info will be updated in am as well. Good luck out there!
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vIzGmIX54rTWMwe-S4hlJ_LpaLqL21lBBNCXC1dFkuk/edit?usp=sharing
***UPDATE** The Yankees/Royals game has been postponed. I have alternative pitching option written up in my pitcher's article and stacks coming in the stacks article soon. Good luck out there!