Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/24/17

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Pitcher

Early

Marcus Stroman FD 8900 DK 10200
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @MIL
FD - 31.95 DK - 21.14

This early slate is a bit weird. There is no pitcher that stands out as a must play, nor many who are horrible. We do have a couple guys with solid match-ups, but they all have risk. Marcus Stroman is our favorite of the bunch, facing off with the Milwaukee Brewers in Miller Park. He's having his best season yet, holding strong surface stats while getting extremely unlucky. He's posted a .350 wOBA and an 80% LOB rate, which are both very high and certain to drop at some point. That could be today, against a lineup with 6 righties. Stroman allowed a .302 wOBA against righties in 2016 and struck out nearly 8 of them per 9 innings. The Brewers are definitely a dangerous offense, though not at all reliable. After Braun and Shaw, you see a ginormous dropoff. The bottom 5 (Perez, Bandy, Arcia, Broxton, Garza) of this lineup, while young and full of promise, are not good against righties. They all either hold high K% or have absolutely no power/ability to hit the ball (Garza). Stroman can lock in 6 or 7 strikeouts in this matchup and if he's able to contain the top 4, he could see one of his better outings of the season. Matt Garza will surely allow some runs and if Stroman can stick around for 5, he should be in line for the win. While there is no such thing as safe on this slate, Stroman is as close as you will get to it.

Main

Chris Sale FD 11800 DK 13500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 45.44 DK - 30.1

This one should be interesting. Chris Sale has been absolutely disgusting to start the season and nobody has been able to consistently square him up. He welcomes the Rangers into Fenway Park tonight and will most likely send them packing as well. To start, he's death to lefties. The Rangers will be forced to hit 2 or 3 L's, who you can chalk up for 6-8 strikeouts. Against righties, Sale is striking out nearly 14 per 9 innings. He's backed it up with a .203 wOBA and .274 BABIP. He's undeniably one of the best and is one of the only guys with upside identical to Kershaw. This match-up is one where things can go either way. The Rangers do strikeout a lot, but also have a lot of power and in Fenway, it's in play. Napoli and Rua are the 2 best in this lineup against southpaws, though both strikeout a lot and haven't been great this season. Sale is the top option in all formats and there isn't anyone else that's close. The price is steep, however, and you will have to sacrifice elsewhere. If you need a pivot, you may be hard-pressed. Let's take a look.

Rich Hill FD 8700 DK 8900
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @LAD
FD - 33.07 DK - 21.63

I know, I don't love it either. But who else? Rich Hill is a really good pitcher and although he may be on a pitch limit, he's the safest option to be good in those restricted pitches. The rest of these pitching options are extremely risky and I doubt many get to the 100-105 pitches Hill is capped at. Hill is also priced down from his DL stint, which gives him some upside. He's a guy who had some of the best numbers around in 2016, allowing a .238 wOBA and striking out a combined 9 per 9 innings. He faces off with a Cardinals team who is much worse against lefties. The likes of Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, and Diaz are all better against righties and hold higher K%'s against L's. Dodgers Stadium is a great pitchers park and we saw more than a few flyballs get knocked down just last night. Hill is fine in all formats on this slate and he may end up being somewhat highly owned. In that case, I'm fine going elsewhere in tournaments.

Catcher

Early

Devin Mesoraco FD 2800 DK 3200
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 7.34 DK - 5.72

On this early slate, you can't be picky. There aren't a lot of bad pitchers and the few there are, are facing teams with even worse. Devin Mesoraco is one of the only happy mediums we have here, as a guy with a lot of power in a match-up that is pretty conducive. Bauer has 1 big problem and it's the HR ball. He's already allowed 10 homers this year and that's in just 40 innings. Devin Mesoraco, who recently came off the DL, is one of the more powerful catchers in the league. With that being said, he hits lefties for a lot more consistency and is a naturally volatile player. Fortunately, he's cheap enough across the industry and won't force you to pay down anywhere else. At a position without any solid options, go ahead and take a shot on a guy with HR upside. If you want a bit more safety and a lot more ownership, Yan Gomes is a solid option.

Main

Gary Sanchez FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.48 DK - 9.63

As a righty, you would expect Gary Sanchez to be a lot better against lefties. Instead, it's the complete opposite. Sanchez has demolished righties to ridiculous numbers while being underwhelming against southpaws. In 2016, he held a .451 wOBA and while that may not be sustainable, his .381 this year may be. He's not running into any luck and has actually been a bit unlucky if anything. Fortunately, Sanchez takes on Jason Hammell tonight. While Hammell has been a decent pitcher for some time, his time os overdue. He's being crushed by both sides of the plate this season, though a .444 wOBA against righties has been the real killer. While obviously not a number that will stay, Hammel has made it quite clear that he has lost a step or two. The Yankees are a very strong GPP stack tonight and Sanchez, in particular, is a great cash game play. He stands out at the position and could end up being a guy that is necessary to win tournaments.

First Base

Early

Carlos Santana FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Bonilla) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.95 DK - 9.85

Lisalverto Bonilla is likely the weakest link of the early slate. He hasn't pitched in the majors since 2014 and has been horrible in his return. He's allowed a .403 wOBA to lefties and has shown no signs of getting any better. His struggles against lefties were well-vetted in the minors, and one of the main reasons he was stuck in AAA for so long. He runs into an Indians lineup that doesn't play around, sporting the 4th highest wOBA against righties dating back to last season. A lot of that has to do with Carlos Santana, who is a force in his own right against right-handers. He held a .388 wOBA in 2016 against righties and also belted a whopping 30 homers against them. Santana is also a switch-hitter, so he'll have the platoon advantage no matter the pitcher out of the bullpen. Santana is an easy cash game play on the early slate and shouldn't be too highly owned with other solid options.

Main

Hanley Ramirez FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.95 DK - 10.02

Hanley is a guy we love to target against lefties. His price is typically low and his ownership is never crazy.  He held a ridiculous .458 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and while that may not be sustainable, there is something to the success. At home, he held a stupid .541 wOBA against lefties. There was nobody better. He peppered the green monster with doubles and peppered the parking garage with dingers. While hot and cold streaks aren't something to consider most of the time, there are certain players who are a bit more emotional and end up letting their swing get the best of them. Fortunately, Hanley is swinging the bat pretty well. The Red Sox face off with Martin Perez, who we'll touch plenty on a bit later. The Sox are going to be one of our top offenses on this slate and as of now, they hold a slate-high implied team total of 5.38. Hanley is a gem in all formats and will be my highest owned 1B.

Josh Bell FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.45 DK - 7.41

You know what you're getting when you face Julio Teheran. You're getting a guy who is really good against righties and not-so-hot against lefties. Over the past 3 years, he's allowed a .359 wOBA against lefties all the while not improving at all. It has already gotten worse this season, allowing a .399 wOBA in just under 30 innings. Lefties are going to consistently damage Teheran and we can't stay away because of his effective against right-handers. Josh Bell is a bit too cheap on both sites and I can see the merit in both cash games and tournaments. Bell is a switch-hitter who has most of his power from the left side. He's hit righties to a .360 wOBA so far and has plenty of power to hit one out. SunTrust Park has played very small for lefties so far and looks to be a park that will stay that way. Bell is a fine option if you want to pay down from Hanley and want a guy with upside at a fair price. He's also a good option if you want to force in Sale and need to find a way to pay down somewhere.

Second Base

Early

Jed Lowrie FD 2300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Volquez) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.44 DK - 7.29

Jed Lowrie is a 3 hitter in 2017. Apart from targeting him in DFS, let's sit back and try to figure out why Jed Lowrie is in the 3 hole in an MLB lineup. While there is no good reason, the A's don't have any better options. Lowrie does a fine job of getting on-base and won't often kill you with strikeouts. He's a lot better against righties and has posted a .340 wOBA against them in 4 consecutive seasons. The Athletics face off with Edinson Volquez tonight, who is the farthest thing from an ace around. The guy the Marlins were hyping up as their "ace", is the guy now allowing a .382 wOBA to lefties while allowing a ridiculous 45% hard contact rate. The Oakland Coliseum is a pitcher's paradise, but so is Marlins Park. The ball will fly a bit better during the day in Oakland and while Lowrie isn't a guy you target for power, it's always there to a degree. On FanDuel, I don't feel the need to go anywhere else. On DraftKings, I can't stand the price. Brandon Drury is in play moving down and Dee Gordon is an interesting GPP play. Kipnis is the obvious cash game option, but I wanted to touch on a few different offenses.

Main

Dustin Pedroia FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.53 DK - 9.09

The Red Sox are going to be the most popular offense of the night. They're facing a bad lefty at home in Fenway Park. Fenway is right up there with Coors Field for right-handed power and (typically) holds far less ownership. Martin Perez is a 26-year old lefty, who has been around way too long. He's been inept against righties for years now, posting a .341 wOBA in 2016 and allowing 16 homers. Dustin Pedroia had a career year in 2016, hitting 15 homers and cracking lefties to the tune of a .360 wOBA. He's always been a lot better at home and while he may not have the crazy upside like some of these other Red Sox, he can always hit one over the monster. Feel free to rosterPedroia in all formats as you won't find anyone else safer at the position.

Neil Walker FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Cosart) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.87

Neil Walker, like Pedroia, seems to be a bit priced down across the industry. He won't cost you too much and gives you plenty at a position that lacks it all. Walker, a SH (switch-hitter), has been better against righties for the majority of his career. He's held a .371 wOBA over the last 3 years and has been one of the more consistent bats on the Mets from the left side Jarred COsart has found hs way back into the rotation and will surely see himself out again very soon. He hasn't been decent in over 2 years and allowed a combined wOBA of .346 in 2016. Citi Field might not be the friendliest of ballparks for lefties, but Walker has handled it just fine, hitting the majority of his homers there. While Pedroia is a lot safer, the ownership will reflect that. Walker has the same upside and will be 3 or 4x lesser owned.

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Shortstop

Early

Francisco Lindor FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Bonilla) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.7 DK - 9.45

As mentioned, Lisalverto Bonilla is very bad against lefties. While we are pointing to the .403 wOBA he currently holds, it can't be fully trusted. However, the rumors of him struggling against lefties for his entire career can definitely be trusted. Without an impactful changeup or curveball, lefties are left waiting for his fastball or sitting off-speed. They've started to rake him and we're going to keep targeting the lefties until they get him out of the rotation. Lindor, another switch-hitting Indian, is also better from the left side. He sported a .351 wOBA against righties in 2016 and also showed off a little power with 10 big ones. The Indians are clearly one of the top offenses on this early slate and while the ownership will certainly reflect that, you have to stay there in cash games. Bonilla has struggled in each of his starts and I don't think taking on the Indians on the road is a spot to turn it around.

Main

Trea Turner FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - SEA (Gaviglio) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.6 DK - 10.22

Sam Gaviglio has been a very average minor leaguer. He's not getting called up due to dominance and we should expect nothing of the sort. He is here to pitch 5 innings and let the bullpen try to save the game. Tonight, I doubt he gets to 5 innings. The Nationals are going to be the stiffest competition he has ever faced and I don't think it turns out well. Starting with Trea Turner, it could get ugly fast. Turner, a righty, has been a lot better against right-handers over his short career. He posted an insane .451 wOBA in 2016 and while that may not be sustainable, you're looking at one of the best young hitters in the game. He's quite obviously a reverse splits hitter and one we want to take advantage of as much as possible. On FanDuel, he's too cheap. I'll have him in most of my lineups there and will make sure to have over the field. On DraftKings, he's pushing the envelope. It will be interesting to see how the ownership ends up with quite a few solid offenses on the slate.

Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.69

Xander had a great game last night, finishing with 3 RBI's and scoring 4 runs. He's been getting on base a ton and has done a lot for this Red Sox offense lately. He's always been much better against lefties, as evident by his .378 wOBA in 2016. He, like most Red Sox, is also much better at home. He uses the green monster extremely well and has as much upside as anyone at the position. The Red Sox will be very highly owned, though this may be one of the spots where you can get one of the studs under 30% owned. Bogaerts isn't as popular as most of the other Sox and I could see people flocking towards Turner on the high-end. Martin Perez has been bad against righties and it's not going to magically change with a visit to Fenway Park. While anything can happen in baseball, the Red Sox being shut down tonight would be one of the biggest surprises of the young season. While Turner is still preferred in cash games, Bogaerts is fine in all formats and almost a must for stacks.

Third Base

Early

Jose Ramirez FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Bonilla) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.38 DK - 8.54

Yep, another Cleveland Indian. In fact, another Cleaveland Indian switch-hitter. Jose Ramirez will top us off as our 3rd bat in this lineup against Lisalverto Bonilla. There isn't much else to say about the guy. He struggles against lefties and has done so since 2014. He travels to Progressive Field and will be forced to take on an extremely lethal offense. While Jose Ramirez isn't on the same "name level" as Santana and Lindor, he's just as good of a hitter. In 2016, Ramirez posted a .351 wOBA against righties and held a 24% LD rate. HE will have plenty of RBI opportunities and won;t be as highly owned as the others. This entire Indians team is in play and at a position without much depth, Ramiez is the best cash game option. In tournaments, Todd Frazier is very interesting in Chase Field.

 

Main

Alex Bregman FD 2600 DK 3500
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.09 DK - 7.22

Third base isn't one of the bright spots on this slate. If you don't want to pay up for Bryant, who we'll touch on in a second, you are best paying down and finding a guy like Alex Bregman. Bregman came into the year with a lot of excitement and while he hasn't lived up to it, things are starting to turn around. Remember, he was drafted just a year and a half ago out of LSU. He didn't go through the minors at a regular pace and is still getting over some of those growing pains. Against lefties, he;s shown to be quite good. He posted a .327 combined wOBA in 2016 and hit the ball hard more against lefties than righties. Daniel Norris has struggled a ton and it looks like he could be due for a few minor league starts. Minute Maid Park is a great one for righties and with Bregman priced down across the industry, he makes for a solid play in all formats. We do need to find a few spots to pay down with Chris Sale on the slate and this is a good way to do it. On the other hand, there is a guy named Kris Bryant who is taking on a lefty. Let's dive in.

Kris Bryant FD 4300 DK 5100
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.83

This isn't a guy rated highly by the system in terms of point per dollar. If you're paying up for Chris Sale, you probably won't have Kris Bryant. That's perfectly acceptable. However, if you're not reaching for Sale, Bryant is a great way to get some upside at 10% ownership. Matt Moore is nothing to be afraid of, allowing 20 homers to righties with half of his games in AT&T Park. He elevates the ball a ton and has the highest barrel % in the MLB. Kris Bryant is not a guy you want to touch the barrel of and especially if you're a lefty. In 2016, Bryant posted a .438 wOBA against lefties. Unlike most guys, it is likely sustainable. This is a future Hall of Famer and a guy that can hit 2 HR's in Wrigley without blinking. Like I said, the price is high and the match-up isn't a must. However, this is a guy with more upside than anyone outside of Trout. Don't be afraid to take a shot in tournaments.

Outfield

Early

Billy Hamilton FD 3700 DK 4900
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 8.17 DK - 8.14
Adam Duvall FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CLE (Bauer) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.14 DK - 7.05

This is a pretty fun combo to run, as these guys can score fantasy points in so many different ways. For one, Trevor Bauer is not good at holding runners. He held a below average release time in both 2016 and 2015 and also allowed 86% of runners to successfully steal. If Hamilton gets on first, you can lock in at least 1 steal with a strong upside for 2. Secondly, Bauer can't keep the ball in the park. We already talked bout his HR troubles with Mesoraco and they are magnified for Duvall, who is a killer against righties. In 2016, he hit 26 homers against them and posted a .340 wOBA. Progressive Field is slightly positive for right-handed power and Duvall is one of my favorites on the slate. Hamilton is a bit more risky, though his upside in tournaments may be higher than Duvall. All in all, I like this combo in a stack more than anything. The lineup is extremely diverse and there is nothing better than Hamilton stealing 2nd and 3rd and then getting driven in by a Duvall homer.

Consider - Michael Brantley, Melky Cabrera, Seth Smith

Main

Chris Young FD 2500 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.41

It's kind of weird to say, but there aren't many better out there against lefties than Chris Young. He smoked lefties to a .422 wOBA in 2016 after posting a .409 in 2015. Among qualified hitters, he would have ranked 13th in 2016. While those numbers may be a bit exaggerated, he is certainly the real deal against lefties. Every time a lefty faces off with the Red Sox, I will have shares to Young. I want to emphasize just how much better of a hitter he is against lefties. We have talked about Martin Perez plenty and I'm sure you know by now how great he is. He is about as average of a lefty as they get, allowing a mid .350 wOBA to righties and struggling with the long ball. Facing off with the Red Sox in Fenway Park is a tough recipe for pitchers, so watch out for the Red Sox tonight. Make sure you have some exposure one way or another, as this isn't an offense with much bust opportunity here.

George Springer FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.3
Carlos Beltran FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.41 DK - 7.99

George Springer and Carlos Beltran at home against a lefty? Yes, please. When that lefty is Daniel Norris, sign me up. As I mentioned, he has been really bad all season long and has allowed a .354 wOBA to right-handers. That's with games being played in Comerica Park, which is much smaller than Minute Maid. This entire Astros team is lethal against lefties and all make sense in tournaments. In the outfield, Springer and Beltran are some of the top overall plays. Springer is one of the more versatile leadoff men in the game and has the chance to start you off with a bang. Springer held a .400 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and backed it up with all of the necessary peripherals. He's a lot better at home and it also gives him the added upside with the Crawford boxes in short left. As for Beltran, he's a bit more consistent. He's also a switch-hitter, which allows him to have the platoon advantage in every match-up. Minute Maid park could see some hefty runs tonight and they will likely come at the hands of these Astros.

Consider - Michael Conforto, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Albert Almora, Adam Frazier

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