Arizona Diamondbacks Paul Goldschmidt hits against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning of a baseball game, Saturday, July 25, 2015, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Matt York)
Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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The fact that Dylan Covey's 5.41 xFIP is only the fourth worst on the slate tells you everything you need to know about the bottom of the pitcher barrel tonight. But even among a horde of BP-tossing meatballers, Covey stands out. The rookie is doing a pretty good rendition of James Shields circa 2016 with 11 home runs, 21 Ks and 16 walks in his first 35 IP. Of course, lots of pitchers have struggled in their first exposure to big-league hitting, but it's not like this is some big-name prospect who's just getting overpowered -- he's a 26-year-old with a marginal track record and if the White Sox weren't in total rebuild, there's a good chance he wouldn't be getting this kind of extended run with the big league club. As for the Diamondbacks, they're raking against RHP this season, with a league-best .356 wOBA and an NL-leading .201 ISO. Chase Field, of course, helps those numbers, and we expect it to do the same tonight. As of this morning, they're pegged by Vegas with the top total on the board with 6+ implied runs, and it's easy to see why. Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb both have wOBAs over .450 and ISOs over .300 vs. RHP this season. Yasmany Tomas is at .392/.300. Brandon Drury: .391/.204. And the list keeps going. Literally every position player in the lineup is at least worth some level of consideration tonight.
The Red Sox haven't been great against RHP this season, but facing Andrew Cashner can go a long way to alleviate that. Like we talked about in the cash game article, we don't see any reason to buy in to Cashner's recent run of decent starts. He's still walking more guys than he strikes out, which is a recipe for sure disaster sooner or later. Lefties have been especially hard him, posting a .366 wOBA since the beginning of last season, but he hasn't been very good against anybody (.335 vs. righties) and Fenway strongly favors right-handed hitting, so we think you can play just about anybody you want here. The power has been largely missing from guys like Pedroia and Bogaerts, but they can help your top-of the-order stack compile points if the run-producing opportunities start to mount. You might also find low-ish ownership in the back half on guys like Mitch Moreland (.224 ISO vs. RHP this year) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (.242 ISO vs. RHP since last season).
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We could easily go with the Houston Astros here -- they're in a great spot against Jordan Zimmermann at home -- but in the interest of helping you find some affordable bats to pair with high-priced pitching, we're going with the Braves against blow-up prone Tyler Glasnow. The 6-foot-8 righty is a highly touted prospect, but after a brief run last year, he's actually gotten worse in 2017. Walks were the problem coming in, and they've climbed to 6.29 per 9 IP this season, the highest rate in baseball for pitchers with at least 30 IP. He's also giving up more homers, which could be problematic in SunTrust Park, which looks like it's going to be favorable for hitters -- especially lefty power. That brings us to Matt Adams, who's still priced like a Cardinals backup instead of the Braves' replacement for Freddie Freeman in the middle of the order. He can't hit lefties, but there's nothing wrong with his career line (.349 wOBA, .194 ISO) when he's got the platoon advantage. You won't find much better than that at punt prices. The rest of the Atlanta lineup isn't exactly an imposing bunch, but you can look at Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers, who are both hitting righties well this season with wOBAs over .400 in the split. Glasnow has also been especially awful against lefties (.400 wOBA allowed), so Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis probably deserve consideration, as well.
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My favorite pitchers, stacks, and value plays for tonight using the DFSR and LineupLab tools - https://youtu.be/c38_Rxm_2Ys