Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/23/17

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 12600 DK 13400
Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @LAD
FD - 45.28 DK - 29.91

You guys know the drill. It's Clayton Kershaw. At the very least, he's cash-game viable every time he toes the rubber, and he's usually the chalk play. The Cardinals give us little reason to approach this slate differently, as they come in with a .300 team wOBA, a healthy 22.6% K rate, and ranked 22nd in wRC+ vs. lefties this season. Kershaw's strikeouts aren't up to his standards, and he's generating significantly fewer swings and misses than he has in the previous three seasons, so it's a testament to his all-around excellence that he continues to be one of best pitchers in baseball even when he's not quite himself. His 1.62 FIP is the best in MLB among qualified starters, and he's firmly in the top 10 in both ERA and xFIP. Really, the only hesitation here would be the prices, but they're nothing we haven't seen before, and on a 15-game slate, we should be able to find enough value bats to fit Kershaw in without too much of a problem.

Lance McCullers FD 9400 DK 10200
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @HOU
FD - 35.99 DK - 23.65

McCullers has also seen a dip in Ks early in 2017, but considering the massive improvement in his walk rate, it's a trade-off we're willing to accept (especially since he's still nearly hitting 10 Ks/9). He makes a fine pivot off of Kershaw if you're looking to save some cash and keep some upside, but we'd probably prefer that maneuver in tourneys, because Detroit presents some issues. They're one of the most patient teams in baseball vs. RHP with a 10.7% walk rate, and though they're down a tick in the split this year, they're still solidly above average in terms of wRC+. But as far as risks go, we see this as an acceptable one. McCullers' 2.62 xFIP is the second-best in baseball this season, and his 60% ground ball rate should help limit the Tigers' chances of finding the cheap seats.

 

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3600 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.88 DK - 9.16

Danny Duffy might not be the most obvious guy to pick on -- he's a solid starter who's posted pretty good numbers since the beginning of last season. But it's also pretty clear what the projection system likes about this matchup. For starters, it's Gary Sanchez, one of the best hitters at the position in the league. Also, Yankee Stadium's hitter friendly dimensions have to be considered. It's not quite the HR haven for righties that it is for lefties, but it's still a top-10 park. As for Duffy, he's due for hefty long-ball regression. He's lived a charmed life with a 3% HR:FB ratio so far in 2017, and over time practically every pitcher in the league moves somewhere near the 10-11% range. That's a pretty big deal for Duffy, who relies on fly-ball outs. His strikeouts are also down significantly this season, while his walks are up, so don't be surprised if his ERA (2.97) starts looking more like his xFIP (4.42) soon.

Evan Gattis FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @HOU
FD - 5.32 DK - 4.05

After Sanchez, it starts getting pretty ugly at catcher, so if you want to punt and pray, that's a totally viable strategy. And the good news here is that's basically what you're doing with Gattis at DK's prices. He should be getting the start with McCann on the 7-day DL, and he's actually in a pretty decent spot here, despite the RvR matchup. Jordan Zimmermann has fallen off a cliff over the last season-plus, with a 5.08 xFIP and a .378 wOBA allowed vs. righties since the start of last year. Gattis is a bit of a boom-or-bust play, but he's shown improvement in contact rates this season, and with a .230 ISO vs. RHP since last year, he's in a good spot to take advantage of Zimmermann's 2.22 HRs/9 allowed this season.

First Base

Hanley Ramirez FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.59

Don't be fooled by that 2.45 ERA, you guys. Andrew Cashner hasn't suddenly gotten good. In fact, he looks as bad as a guy coming off six straight starts with two runs or less can look. So while we should probably acknowledge that he's had a pretty good run, there's just no reason to believe it's going to continue. Through 40 IP this season, he's managed just 19 Ks while issuing 21 walks (and two HBPs), but he's escaped thanks to some really nice luck on BABIP and strand rate, leading to an xFIP (5.50) that's three runs higher than his ERA. If you've visited this site often, you already know which number we're putting our trust in. Meanwhile, Hanley has done solid work against RHP over the last year-plus -- especially in Fenway, which is highly favorable to right-handed hitting. Since the start of 2016, he's got a .364 wOBA and .210 ISO vs. RHP while hitting at home.

Kendrys Morales FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.08 DK - 8.37

If you're going with Kershaw, you're gonna have to find some cheap bats, and you could do a lot worse than Morales at his FanDuel price. Though he's shown a preference for southpaws recently, over the course of his career, he's actually fared best vs. RHP, carrying a lifetime .345 wOBA and .205 ISO in the split. Those numbers should play well in Miller Park, one of the most homer-happy spots in baseball.

Consider: Josh Bell

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.33 DK - 8.93

I feel a theme coming on. If you've got a Red Sox bat you like, chances are the projection system likes him, too. We won't belabor the point, but just to reiterate: we're calling shenanigans on this Cashner-being-decent business. Maybe we'll get proven wrong. Maybe he'll be the first pitcher in history to sustain success while walking more guys than he whiffs. Maybe, but we'll take our chances betting against it. And hey, here's something Cashner has in common with Pedroia: both have more walks than Ks this year. Pedey isn't the kind of guy that will often carry your lineups to GPP glory, but he is a pretty steady source of fantasy production with a .314 batting average and .350 wOBA vs. RHP since last year.

Jed Lowrie FD 2300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.11 DK - 7.04

It wouldn't be far-fetched to call Lowrie a poor man's Pedroia, and the discount you're getting on him at FanDuel might make him the preferred play for your Kershaw lineups tonight. Not that Lowrie has anything that even approaches Pedroia's stellar track record, but when he's at his best, he does a pretty good impression. And so far in 2017, Lowrie has been on his game, with a .370 wOBA and .221 ISO vs. RHP. He'll be facing Jose Urena tonight, and while the Marlins' swing man has nice surface stats, if we dig a little deeper we see that there's not much to believe in (career 5.01 xFIP).

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Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3400 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.45

Bogaerts is back up to his extreme BABIP tricks again in 2017, and even though the power is MIA this season, he's actually putting up better all-around production than he did last year when he hit 21 HRs. Some of that is due to his seven steals (more than half of last year's total) in 39 games, but that doesn't have anything to do with his wOBA sitting at a career high .359. And even if his BABIP regresses, don't expect it to crater. He's got a .341 career average, and after nearly 2,200 career plate appearances, it's apparent he's not a normal dude when it comes to balls in play. Also, his walks are up a tick, his Ks are down a tick, and he's got a .368 wOBA vs. RHP this season, so there's a lot to like here before we even consider the mirage that is Andrew Cashner.

Francisco Lindor FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Garrett) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.82

Lindor's been one of the best hitters at SS since coming into the league nearly two years ago, and his power surge this season has only made him better. It's come with a slight increase in Ks, but he had plenty of leeway there, and trading last year's .134 ISO for this year's .244 sure makes it look like a worthwhile tradeoff. That power could get a boost in the Great American Ballpark, and facing Amir Garrett (1.8 HRs/9) doesn't hurt either.

Consider: Chris Owings

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 4100 DK 5500
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.67 DK - 9.75

The only downside for Lamb tonight is it's going to be tough to fit him in with Kershaw (especially on DK), but he's looking like a near-lock for any lineups where you're not paying a premium for pitching. The only weakness he's showing in 2017 is a penchant for Ks (28%), but that'll be minimized against Dylan Covey, who fans less than 6 per 9 IP. That makes this an excellent matchup for Lamb, because the reigning NL Player of the Week is destroying righties this year. In fact, dating back to last season, he's got a .391 wOBA and .292 ISO in the split. As for Covey, an inability to miss bats is just the beginning of his issues. He's surrendering a 2.8 HRs/9 IP, which puts him at fifth-most in the league among pitchers with at least 30 innings this season.

Maikel Franco FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - COL (Marquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.9

Franco has been largely disappointing in 2017, but we can't see much of a reason for that to continue. He remains an elite contact hitter (13.1 K%), especially for a guy with pretty good power, and there's nothing in his batted ball profile to explain the lagging stats. His hard contact rate is up, his soft contact is down, his fly ball/ ground ball/line drive mix is virtually unchanged, and he's hitting far fewer pop ups than last year. Looks like this is just a matter of bad BABIP luck, so expect that .222 to start climbing soon. I mean, don't expect him to turn into Nolan Arenado or anything, but he should have the upper hand tonight against mediocre Rockies rookie German Marquez.

Consider: Manny Machado, Evan Longoria

Outfield

David Peralta FD 3300 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.6 DK - 10.08
Gregor Blanco FD 2400 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.24 DK - 9.43

If you can't afford Jake Lamb, here's your chance to get some lefty exposure to Dylan Covey. Peralta's price is pretty steep on DK, but both guys are definitely doable on FanDuel and should be considered top options in cash games tonight. Sure, they don't have the same HR upside you get with the slugging third baseman, but Chase Field provides spacious gaps, and hitting for power is only one of the ways to exploit Covey. He also walks more than 4 per 9 IP, and as the table-setters for the Arizona lineup, Blanco and Peralta should have ample opportunities to reach base and get pushed across tonight. Peralta is the better hitter, with a .350 wOBA and .823 OPS dating back to last year, but Blanco looks like a good bet for value. He's got a career BB rate of 11%, and he'll run a little, too, so there's something to hope for beyond singles and runs scored.

Andrew McCutchen FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.16

When you're trying to predict the future, knuckleballers don't make it easy, because even they don't have a precise idea where the ball is going when it leaves their hands. So, that kinda sucks. What we do know is that the potential for a blow-up is ever-present, and that's perhaps especially true for R.A. Dickey. His walks and HRs allowed are trending in the wrong direction for the third straight year, leading to a 6.16 FIP and 5.12 xFIP this season. Adding to the uncertainty is the fact that we don't yet have enough data to say SunTrust Park definitively favors hitters (though early returns are pointing in that direction). Still, taking all that into account, the projection system sees value in Cutch. I mean, he's clearly past his prime, but he doesn't need to be an MVP candidate to get you what you need at these prices. He's likely due for some strong BABIP regression; even during a down year in 2016, his BABIP hovered in the .300 range, and there's not enough drop-off in the batted ball profile to explain a 70-point drop there. According to xwOBA -- which uses Statcast's batted ball data to how a hitter should be hitting -- McCutchen's wOBA is about 40 points below where it should be. Making up the difference won't make him an All-Star again, but it will make him a serviceable guy, especially in a nice matchup.

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.32

Speaking of erstwhile superstars on the slide, here we are doing are daily dance with CarGo again. This is mostly a price play, so if you want to fade on DK where you're not really getting a discount, go for it. Even the projection system as little issue with that. But on FanDuel, we still think you're getting a steal. The power numbers haven't materialized in 2017, and that's obviously an issue, but we think they're coming back, because the batted ball mix and hard/soft contact rates remain in line with his career averages. Also, we can't forget the fact that Zach Eflin is not very good. He's allowed a .355 wOBA with 2.17 HRs/9 vs. lefties since last year, so just about any left-handed bat in the middle of a decent order and coming relatively cheap is in play.

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