Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @ARI
FD - 34.66 DK - 22.83
It's hard to say where ownership levels for pitching are going to end up tonight. There's no clear, obvious stud in a great spot, so as one of the biggest names -- and arguably the most talented SP on the slate -- it would be easy to imagine Greinke becoming the chalk. It's still relatively early in the season, but we have to like what we've seen out of the 33-year-old so far in 2017. At 10+ Ks/9, he's striking out guys at a clip he hasn't seen since 2011, and it's backed up by a 13% swinging strike rate, which would be the highest of his career. He's also had quality starts with at least six Ks in five of his last six, resulting in a 3.09 xFIP on the year, and he's also got a nice matchup at the White Sox, who rank 24th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA vs. RHP this season. On the downside, the price is going to make him significantly less attractive (especially on DK), and few pitchers can be considered safe bets in Chase Field, one of the top three parks in baseball in overall offensive factors. Going against the chalk in this kind of situation can often be a profitable tournament strategy, but given the likelihood that Greinke ends up the top-performing SP on the slate, we think it'd be wise to at least get some exposure.
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @TB
FD - 27.67 DK - 18.36
Ramirez obviously doesn't come with Greinke's name recognition, but it wouldn't be surprising if he's just as popular on this slate, because the price is right and there's always upside against the Rays at Tropicana Field. Tampa strikes out more frequently than any team in baseball vs. RHP (26.6%), and the Trop is one of baseball's best parks for pitchers. That said, even with the tendency to whiff, the Rays have been a dangerous offense this season (4th in wRC+ vs. RHP), so reward of K upside comes with significant risk, as well. As for Ramirez, the book is still being written. He's a 28-year-old who bounced around the minors for nearly a decade -- much of it as a reliever -- before finally getting some extended run last season. He moved into the starting rotation this season and has been mostly solid, if not spectacular (3.83 xFIP, 7.36 Ks/9) in 47.2 IP. To be honest, we'd like this play a lot more if I knew Ramirez was going to slip between the cracks. But it's a pretty brutal slate for pitching, so we're going to take the value potential where we can find it, and Ramirez looks like a nice source tonight.
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View Comments
Great stuff Brent! Here is the link for anyone wanting to use my DFS pitchers sheet for reference.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QnP_kRnF6Re6n8VacQ8rMuMr04ts3u6NxwdfD3eQdk0/edit?usp=sharing
Nicely done Chris Durrell.