Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/22/17

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Pitcher

Michael Pineda FD 8700 DK 10500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @NYY
FD - 35.97 DK - 23.63

Pineda has been exceptional to start the 2017 campaign. He's striking out more and walking fewer batters than ever. He's been effective against both sides of the plate and has done a great job avoiding the big inning. Pineda is a  guy who has routinely blown up in years past, however, looking at this year's box scores, he hasn't had a single one of those games. He's battled in every contest and even if his "stuff" isn't working, he's shown the ability to fight through and give a quality start, which wasn't there for the past 4 seasons. So far in 2017, Pineda is a holding a combined .296 wOBA to go along with a strong 2.78 xFIP. This match-up with the Royals is one that stands out for right-handers. While the team has a reputation for being scrappy and hard to pitch against, it's simply not true. The Royals have held the 2nd lowest wOBA in the league against righties (.292) and have been utterly useless at the plate as a team.  They swing early and they swing with no conviction. While the bump into Yankees Stadium could draw a troublesome spot or two, I see Pineda working out of it and turning in a very strong start. On FanDuel, he's a bit too cheap. He's far below Cole and Greinke, who have a very similar floor and ceiling in their respective match-ups. All in all, Pineda makes for a strong play in all formats.

Gerrit Cole FD 9800 DK 9700
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 31.75 DK - 20.93

We saw the true Freddie Freeman-less Braves last night. After going all-in on Stephen Strasburg, I tuned in to watch him get nickeled and dime to death by a bunch of AAA players. Instead, we finally saw what has been coming to these Braves. They were embarrassed at the plate and put on a swivel for the better part of 8 innings. Strasburg struck out 11 and outside of the 8th inning, was never in real trouble. He smoothly sailed through the order 3 times and capitalized on what is an extremely weak lineup against righties. Today, Gerrit Cole will take a shot. Cole has been a bit tough to gauge as a pitcher. In 2016, he allowed a .357 wOBA to lefties. He's since turned that around and currently holds a .296 (25 innings). While I'm not fully willing to trust the small sample size, lefties are making less contact and the contact they are making is much softer. He's striking out his normal 7 per inning and has been phenomenal with fastball control (0.41 BB/9 FB). Simply glancing at the lineup, you should see just ho pitiful it is. Matt Kemp is really the only hitter with much of a presence there and he's still a guy who strikes out almost 25% of the time against righties. Other than him, you can find hitters like Brandon Phillips and Nick Markakis in the 2/4 holes.I feel like the Braves are another team people don't want to target because of the reputation they have to not strikeout. Throw it out the window. Without Freddie Freeman, the Braves are easily the worst lineup in baseball. That is not at all debatable. While Cole has shown a trend of getting hit around on a few starts per year, that was a different pitcher. That was the Gerrit Cole who couldn't locate his fastball and had no quality changeup against lefties. I'm willing to give Cole a shot here and have no qualms with him in any format. I will say he's a nice step down from Greinke on DK, who is just a bit too expensive in Chase Field.

On the high-end, Zack Greinke is interesting. However, he's in Chase Field at an elevated price tag. The upside is certainly there, though it'll be tough to pay up from Pineda and Cole, who are projected very similarly. If being forced to pay down, J.C. Ramirez may be your best shot.

Catcher

Willson Contreras FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.35 DK - 7.29

Ty Blach has been running on some luck (.162 BABIP) and a whole lot of AT&T Park friendliness. Today, he heads to Wrigley Field to take on the ever-so-deadly Chicago Cubs. Even with the immense luck, Blach is holding a .331 wOBA against righties. Oh ya, he also holds what may be the most embarrassing K/9 of 2.86 I have ever seen. Against the Cubs, that's just not going to work. They are going to put the bat on the ball and when the Cubs aren't striking out, they are unbeatable. Wrigley has also been blowing out the past few days, so keep an eye out for the weather forecast as first pitch draws close. Willson Contreras is a great hitter and not just by the catcher standards. He's posted a .360 wOBA against lefties since his first career AB and looks to be never turning back. This entire Cubs team is in play here and we'll get to another one of them a little later on. Blach is not a good pitcher and I'm hoping his decent starts will keep the Cubs' ownership down. While catcher is usually a spot we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for, that's not the case today. We have a few solid expensive options and a couple guys on the cheap who deserve some attention. Contreras is my favorite of the bunch and makes sense in all formats.

Gary Sanchez FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.89 DK - 9.17

There's obviously no denying this kid. He has the power and it's legitimate. Case closed. He's also been better against righties, posting a .431 wOBA thus far. 18 of his 24 HR's have come off of righties and even hits the ball harder against them (42% to 39%). The Royals will come into Yankee Stadium and if I'm guessing, will get blown away. Jason Hammell has been hot garbage to start the season and his peripherals shown no signs of improvement. He's allowed 5 homers and a .444 wOBA to righties in just 15 innings of work. While he certainly isn't THAT bad, he is a 34-year-old with declining velocity and movement. The Yankees should have plenty of success here and Gary Sanchez will be right in the middle of it all. He will cost you, however, and on a day with expensive pitching, catcher may not be the smartest spot to pay up for. All in all, Sanchez is a great option, though not a must play by any means.

Jason Castro FD 2800 DK 3200
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 7.91 DK - 6.07

Need a cheap catcher? Look no further. While Sanchez and Contreras are both elite options near the top of the pricing range, there is always merit to paying down at the position for some power. Castro certainly has the power and in Camden Yards, has more than enough of it. This Twins lineup is one we like a lot tonight and one we'll look to target pretty often. Castro has hit righties well in his career and over the past 3 years, he's held a .334 wOBA against them whole hitting a bunch of homers. We will touch on Ubaldo Jimenez a lot more as we move on, but put simply, he's not good. The Twins should put up some runs here and Castro will be in the 6 or 7 hole, putting him in a good spot for RBI opportunities. Camden Yards is a huge upgrade from Target Field and nobody would be surprised to see Castro hit one out tonight. Make sure he's in the lineup as he is a catcher and has been playing a lot lately.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.5
Carlos Santana FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.28

First base isn't the gold mine it is on most slates. We don't have 5 or 6 expensive options that are all in elite spots. That's not to say we don't a couple guys to choose from. Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion are both terrific plays here, facing off with Scott Feldman. Feldman was much worse against lefties in 2016, though his numbers against righties weren't much better. He's posted a combined .344 wOBA over the last 2 seasons and his peripherals have dropped steadily. He's struggling against both sides of the plate this season and is only striking out 17% of batters. The Indians lineup is extremely potent and should be able to do a ton of damage in Great American Ballpark. Santana and Encarnacion are both guys I like in all formats, though I think Santana is a bit safer. As a switch-hitter, he will always hold the platoon advantage. They both hit righties very well and Encarnacion is a little bit better in the power department. With all of that being said, we all know what can happen. Either of these guys can hit 2 HR and all of this "upside" talk can end up being useless. The fact of the matter is both of these guys are squarely in play against an aging, bad pitcher in a great ballpark. Feel free to plug either of these guys into your lineup.

Josh Bell FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.55 DK - 7.49

On DraftKings, you will have to pay up at first base. They have everyone in a good match-up priced up, so unless you want to go for a -EV play, you'll have to pay at least $3500. On FanDuel, we have Josh Bell at $2900. He faces off with  Mike Foltynewicz, who is notoriously bad against lefties. He's allowed a .349 wOBA against them over the past 3 seasons and while he's not the atrocity he once was, he's nothing to be afraid of. Josh Bell, a switch-hitter, has shown his ability to hit righties quite well. He currently holds a .359 wOBA and already has 5 homers against them on the year. He'll be right in the heart of the order and should have a few RBI opportunities as well. The ball has been flying in SunTrust Park and it's starting to look like the real deal. I'm fine with targeting Bell in all formats on FanDuel, as his price is extremely friendly and he has just as much upside as the field. Without a surefire option at first base, fire away Josh Bell in a solid match-up and save some funds.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.11 DK - 7.29

Jason Kipnis looks to be fully healthy, seeing the ball extremely well and posting a hit in 8 straight. He's been leading off ad doing a very good job in both the power and speed department. Remember, he does have 2 homers robbed on the early season, which is one of the weird things that can skew stats in baseball. We touched on Scott Feldman, who's career is in a free-fall. While he hasn't reached the level of atrocious, he's pretty close. He's been inept against both righties and lefties, posting a .327 combined wOBA while still getting quite lucky (.246 BABIP). Kipnis is one of the more steady 2nd basemen in the league and even though he goes under the radar, there aren't many better or more versatile. In the Great American Ballpark, I can't ignore Kipnis. He's going to be a big part of the Indians offense tonight and in cash games, he's my guy at just $3.4k on FanDuel. He has plenty of upside and is also almost guaranteed to see 5 at-bats in this match-up. Feel free to target Kipnis in any and all formats.

Brian Dozier FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.82 DK - 8.63

Like I said, we're going to be targeting Ubaldo Jimenez a lot here. Why? Because he's the worst pitcher on this slate. Like Matt  Cain, this is a guy who is still surviving off of a season he had in Colorado about 10 seasons. As a side note, the fact that people get paid millions of dollars to hire Ubaldo Jimenez is quite incredible. Onto this match-up, it doesn't get much better for Dozier. Jimenez has posted a .359 combined wOBA over the last 2 years, with those numbers being even worse in Camden Yards, where the ball flies. Dozier, on the other hand, held a .362 wOBA against righties in 2016 and also hit 31 homers against them. Dozier is my pick for infield HR of the night and I don't think he will be too popular. While people will definitely be on him, I don't think he will be as highly owned as Jason Kipnis. DK has done a good job of pricing up Dozier, though there merit to play him in all formats is still there. The Twins lineup is one of the best of the night and Brian Dozier has a lot to do with that.

Joe Panik FD 2500 DK 2800
Opponent - CHC (Lackey) Park - @CHC
FD - 6.76 DK - 5.36

If you need a cheap option at second base, you can't go wrong with Joe Panik in the mid $2K's. He's been slotted in the 2 hole against righties and draws a pretty solid match-up with John Lackey. While Lackey isn't a guy you want to go out of your way to target, you also don't want to purposely avoid him. He's always been worse against lefties and has held a .326 wOBA since 2015. Panik on the other hand, is pretty solid against righties, posting a .330 wOBA since the start of his career. He may not have anywhere near the upside of Dozier or LeMahieu, but in cash games, I love the move. On a night with expensive pitching options, you have to pay down somewhere. Panik gives you that option while also giving you a 2 hitter in a good ballpark. If you are looking for somewhere to save funds, strongly consider Joe Panik.

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.9

Francisco Lindor was one of the only Indians to not join in on the big performance yesterday. He struggled early and was never up with too many guys on-base. Let's hope that all changes tonight. He should at least have some guys on the bags when he gets to the plate. Scott Feldman is not a good pitcher and the Indians are far too good to be shut down by him. Lindor, a switch-hitter, is better against righties. He's posted a .349 wOBA since entering the league and still approaching his prime. He's hitting the ball hard this year and the HR power (9) is great to see out of a young SS. Lindor is expensive, but SS isn't great and he does hold a phenomenal match--up. While nowhere near the priority pitching is, Lindor is one of my favorite position players. In Great American Ballpark, his upside is monstrous. GAB is one of the best parks in baseball for both lefties and righties, which is why the Indians currently hold a 4.74 implied run total. Fire away.

Addison Russell FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.21

Joe Maddon likes to get funky at times with the Cubs order, so seeing Russell in the 8 hole for a game against a righty is something I don't worry about. He will likely return to the 4 or 5 spot here against a lefty and makes for a great play in both cash games and tournaments. We touched on Blach earlier, who has been getting extremely lucky. He'ss till struggled against righties and these Cubs RH's are firmly in play. Russell in particular, sported a .343 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and hit the ball hard 37% of the time. He's also a better hitter in Wrigley Field, which is common for young guys at home. Russell has definitely been one of the Cubs who has continued to struggle, but like the rest, his time will come. He's just as good of a hitter as he was last season and there will be a time people want to jump on him because he's "on fire". I'll take him here and hope those same people keep his ownership down. If you're targeting the Cubs, Russell is a hard one to ignore.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.11 DK - 10.12

If Ubaldo Jimenez isn't the worst pitcher on this slate, it's Kyle Gibson. He looked to be getting it together about 2 years ago, but has done everything besides that. So far this season, his numbers embarrassing. He's allowing a .408 wOBA to righties and while that's a bit inflated, not by much. He's allowing a near 40% hard contact rate and will now move into Camden Yards, which is far worse than Target Field. Manny Machado, while better against lefties, can rake right-handers. He posted a .359 wOBA against them in 2016 and hit 32 of his 37 homers against them. Machado hits much better at home and is a bit cheaper than the other monster at the position, Kris Bryant. With all of the options at the position, nobody will be over 25% owned. In fact, I think this is a spot you almost have to pay up for. 2 or 3 of these high-end 3B will have big games and I don't think you'll be able to affoto paying down. Machado is the top of the bunch and will find his way into plenty of cash games.

Kris Bryant FD 4400 DK 5100
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.9 DK - 9.99

Like I said, third base is a spot to pay up for. Kris Bryant is the most expensive of the bunch and still draws a ton of interest. He;s one of the 3 best hitters in the league against lefties and in Wrigley Field, has as good of a shot to hit an HR as anyone has on the slate. Ty Blach is a boring youngster without much working for him, as seen by his pitiful 2.8 K/9. Bryant is almost guaranteed to hit the ball hard and I'm willing to be there are a few ducks on the pond when he gets to the plate. The Cubs are one of my favorite stacks of the night as I love to target teams against pitchers who have been putting up a facade. Ty Blach has been living off of a .141 BABIP and a bunch of warning track flyballs (4) in AT&T Park. Those same balls will be 9 rows deep here and Bryant will be touching 2nd base by the time it lands. All kidding aside, Bryant is special against lefties. He held a .438 wOBA and at just 25 years old, could only be getting better. Bryant is a step up from Machado, though you really won't care if he ends up having a big game. I do still prefer Machado in cash games, though I'll make sure I get plenty of Kris Bryant in my lineups. Third base is a great position on the slate and one you won't have the opportunity of missing on.

Miguel Sano FD 3900 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.71 DK - 8.73

There aren't many guys I would rather have Miguel Sano facing off with than Ubaldo Jimenez. He is VERY bad and allows guys to hit the ball hard on a consistent basis, which spells death inside Camden Yards. Sano has turned a corner this year and is currently holding a .434 wOBA against righties. While his numbers are a tad bit inflated, don't think this is fake. Sano is going to be one of the best power hitters in baseball for the next 10 years and you ought to get used to his name. He smacks both lefties and righties and when in a park like Camden Yards, has just as much HR probability as anyone the slate. Third base is extremely stacked tonight and there aren't many ways to go wrong. Personally, I will be paying up. One of these 3 guys is going to have a huge game and I'd take them over the rest of the 3B field.

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.19 DK - 8.56

I would love to hear the reasoning byFanDuel as to why Carlos Gonzalez is $2900. While I don't know if they are just not able to adjust prices more than $200 per game or what, but we're going to keep targeting Carlos Gonzalez until they get their head on straight. He's a bit underpriced on DK as well, but not nearly to the extent. Jerad Eickhoff, the opposing pitcher, has made a living due to his effective against righties. Against lefties, not so much. He's possessed a .350 career wOBA to lefties in 148 innings. They've hit 28 homers against him and are hitting the ball hard a ton. CarGo on the other hand, has been very good against righties for about 1o years now. He was my pick for HR of the night last night and while I'm close to doubling down, w have a guy later in the outfield who I have to go with. With that being said, Gonalez has as good of a shot as anyone on this slate to hit one out. Citizens Bank Park is a + park for lefties and if Gonzalez sees Eickhoff 2 or 3 times, I think he's safe as well. The Rockies lefties are all in play and I don't hate the stack in tournaments.

David Peralta FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.32 DK - 9.05

Miguel Gonzalez isn't a pitcher you typically want to target, as he's about as average as they get. He has struggled a bit this year, however, and lefties have taken advantage at a .349 clip. He now moves into Chase Field, which happens to be the 2nd best hitters ballpark in baseball behind Coors Field. The Diamondbacks are projected for the most runs on this slate and you are almost forced to get exposure somewhere. David Peralta, along with Jake Lamb, are the 2 guys in this lineup with most upside against right-handers. Peralta is a bit tough to look at from a stat perspective, as he hasn't been healthy in 2 years and struggled in his short stint in 2016. He's looked a lot better against righties this year and looks to be returning to the .400 wOBA hitter he was in '15. When a guy is this much more expensive on DK, you should have a pretty good idea of what's going on. Peralta is in play in all formats on FD and is a good tournament option on Draftkings.

Mark Trumbo FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.31 DK - 9.34
Seth Smith FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @BAL
FD - 4.57 DK - 3.46

Against righties, this is a combo I use a lot. Both of these guys are extremely effective against righties and do a great job in Camden Yards. They are also far too cheap on FanDuel, though it seems like that for every hitter. In fact, all 4 of these OF's are very cheap on FD. Kyle Gibson has been horrible against everyone this season, and it looks like that may be the real him. Even if we do see some improvement, it won't be a ton. He has been slightly worse against lefties over the course of his career, and with every peripheral dropping with his velocity, I expect a DL stint very soon out of Gibson. Trumbo, a righty, has actually hit righties a lot better in his career. In 2016, he held a .391 wOBA against righties while hitting 37 home runs. Smith isn't as good of a hitter, but has held a .357 wOBA against righties over the past 3 seasons and wills ee the leadoff spot. Both of these guys make sense in all formats and on DraftKings, they should go under-owned.

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