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We will start right at the top tonight as the Nats seemingly have everything in their favor. It begins with the number one offense in baseball(237 runs) getting a park boost as they travel to Atlanta to face the Braves in their new, more hitter friendly park. Sun Trust Park was built with the left-handed power hitter in mind(yes I am talking about Freddie Freeman) and that works right into Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy's favor tonight. It also helps they get a matchup vs. 42-year-old R.A. Dickey and his never die knuckleball. While he hasn't given up that one blow up game, he has been consistently bad with a 4.22 ERA and 5.03 xFIP and has given up at least one home run in six straight starts. He fails to miss bats(6.8% swinging strike rate) and it could be tougher today with the wind at his back. I am no scientist nor do I play one on TV but from reading articles over the years, a knuckleballer prefers the wind in his face to help make the ball dance more. If this is the case and knuckleball is straight tonight, it could be a long or short(depending on how you look at it) night for Dickey. Another factor the Nats have going for them is that if they can get Dickey out early the Braves bullpen sits with a 4.51 ERA and is giving up over 13% hard contact.
If you have your heart set on Chris Sale tonight you are going to need some value plays so why not go with a complete value stack. I almost avoided writing them up as they are one of the bottom five projected teams tonight when looking at implied runs but I just don't buy it. I get that they are one of the worst offensive teams in the league(23rd in runs scored) but that comes from their brutal splits that have them second to last against right-handed pitching. Facing southpaws has been a different story, however, as they rank 5th in wOBA and 3rd in wRC+ and can really load up a lineup with right-handed bats. It starts with two switch hitters in Leury Garcia and Carlos(aka Yolmer) Sanchez who both come at discount prices, have positive splits vs. lefties, and should once again hit at the top of the lineup. Behind them are three power, lefty-crushing bats in Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, and Avisail Garcia who can give you all the upside you need to win a tournament while coming at a very low ownership. Tonight they will face Ariel Miranda who has flashed and looked like a legit starter in the big leagues but has also given us the blow-up games which is what we are looking for tonight. There is definitely risk involved but it is hard to avoid a team that will be low owned with high upside and their value allows us to pair them with Chris Sale.
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