Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/17/17

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 12500 DK 14400
Opponent - SF (Cueto) Park - @SF
FD - 44.58 DK - 29.43

When Clayton Kershaw is pitching, you can expect him to be mentioned. When he's pitching on a short slate, it's tough to go anywhere else, especially when the match-up is so nice. While the Giants are typically decent against lefties (8th in 2016), they have been no match for Kershaw. While BvP (Batter vs Pitcher) is a stat without much merit due to its usual small sample size, Kershaw has pitched against the Giants a ton. He's dominated their lineup and has already pitched a 7 IP/ 7 K game in AT&T Park this season. Though it's not anywhere near the front of the list on why I love Kershaw, it's great to see a guy dominate in an identical situation multiple times.  While I think it goes without being said, Kershaw is the best pitcher in baseball. I don't think that's arguable either. In 2016, he sported a combined .186 (LOL) wOBA and followed it up with a 10.39 K/9. Kershaw has gotten extremely unlucky this season against righties, sporting a .377 wOBA and 3.13 xFIP. He's still dominating and will continue to do so all season long. This Giants team is not the same as it's been in years past, already holding the league-low .276 wOBA this season. Kershaw is an elite cash game and tournament play, giving you the highest floor and ceiling on the slate. With that being, look at that price! Kershaw is going to cost you a pretty penny and there is always merit in getting some extra funds for the bats. Cueto and McCullers are both pretty interesting, though I really like the upside McCullars brings against the Marlins. All in all, Kershaw is the clear top option. If you are looking to pay up for bats, McCullers is a great option.

Michael Pineda FD 8600 DK 10100
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @KC
FD - 31.71 DK - 21

On this main slate, the pitching isn't great. While we definitely have some solid options to choose from, nobody is safe. Kyle Hendricks and Michael Fulmer are the two most expensive guys, but have tough match-ups and are a bit too expensive. Moving down the board a bit, we run into Michael Pineda. Pineda has been extremely good this year and it looks like he may be turning into the pitcher we have been waiting for. He's posted a .283 combined wOBA so far this season and has backed it up with a 2.41 xFIP and a 27% hard contact rate. He's keeping the ball in the park and not allowing the "big inning" that has always haunted him. Pineda and the Yanks travel to Kaufmann Stadium tonight, where pitchers thrive. Kauffman has ranked in the bottom 5 for hitting for 10 straight years now and it's pretty clear just how bad it is. The Royals offense has struggled mightily to start the season and it's quite clear they are nowhere near as good as they have been over the last 5 years. They have struck out more (22.3%) against righties and aren't hitting the ball nearly as hard. Pineda is a bit expensive on DK, though you have to pay up at pitcher no matter what over there. On FanDuel, he's priced very nicely and is a guy I'll have trouble getting away from. Jason Vargas has been overperforming and I do think the

Miguel Gonzalez FD 7300 DK 7700
Opponent - LAA (Shoemaker) Park - @LAA
FD - 26.3 DK - 17.44

Like I said, pitching on this main slate isn't pretty. If you're looking to get a bit cheaper, your best option is Miguel Gonzalez. While there is a stigma around Gonzalez, he's not too bad of a pitcher. He held a .298 combined wOBA over the course of 130 innings in 2016. He only allowed 11 homers and 30 XBH, with half of his games being played in the hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. He moves into Angels Stadium tonight, which ranks almost as bad as the Oakland Coliseum for hitters. With Angels Stadium, comes the Angels. While Mike Trout has done a good job of keeping the Halos afloat, this offense is purely pitiful. If you take out Trout and Calhoun, you get 7 guys who either have no power or a high strikeout rate. The bottom of the order (Cron, Simmons, Maybin, Espinosa, Maldanado) is beyond horrible and I just don't understand how the front office can expect any production out of those players. Gonzalez doesn't strike out many (6.79 K/9), though he makes up for it with a 5.1 %  HR/FB rate. He's fairly priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings and I will have exposure in all formats. The Sox should be able to put up runs and I expect Gonzalez to grab the W.

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.25

This early slate is one I actually like a lot. There are a few different offenses in good spots and a few intriguing pitchers, including some guy named Clayton Kershaw. Looking towards this catcher position, it doesn't match my sentiment for the slate. This is easily one of the worst positions and Brian McCann will likely be very highly owned because of it. McCann and the Astros travel to Miami to take on Jose Urena and the Marlins. Urena, an intriguing youngster, has looked decent this season. However, he's held a .200 BABIP in just 13 innings, so let's take it easy before we conclude anything. He's facing off with one of the best offenses in the league and I don't think he has too great of a game. McCann caps the powerful part of the 'Stros lineup and will often have 2 or 3 RBI opportunities in a game. He's fairly priced on both sites and has always been a guy that sees righties well, though his ability has surely fallen greatly. McCann already has 6 homers this year and ended up hitting 17 of them against righties in 2016. While I don't think McCann is a must play, I won't be looking anywhere else on this early slate.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.34 DK - 8.79

The Phillies originally had Zach Eflin to start yesterday, so Brent touched on a lot of these Rangers bats in yesterday's picks. They now hold over a 5 implied team run total and this is easily one of the best offenses of the night. Lucroy is definitely starting to get his feel for the season and his price is far too low for the hitter we all know he is. As Brent mentioned yesterday, Lucroy is holding an astounding 5.7% K rate, which is extremely impressive. He's also a guy who has destroyed righties in 2 straight seasons, so don't let his 1 1/2 month hiccup give you hesitance. This is a very good hitter and will be hitting in Globe Life Park, which is top 10 for righty power. We'll touch more on Zach Eflin in a bit, but just know he's a young righty without much going on. Catcher is also weak on the main slate and while there are a few other options, nobody is too close. This entire Rangers team is firmly in play and you'll be seeing plenty more of their faces.

First Base

Carlos Santana FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.46
Edwin Encarnacion FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.01

Our last large sample size for Cobb came in 2014, when he was a very effective pitcher. However, it's a point where we might be better off looking at this season's stats. Cobb could simply be a worse pitcher after the injury and I wouldn't be surprised to see him get knocked around all season. He's already allowed 6 homers on the short season and hasn't worked his changeup quite like he would wish. Both Carlos Santana and Encarnacion are great against righties and are some of my favorite plays in both cash games and tournaments. Progressive Field is almost neutral, but does have slight plus power for righties. Both Encarnacion and Santana sported .372+ wOBA's over the last 2 and while Encarnacion typically hits more HR's, Santana will get his too. I'm perfectly fine with either of these guys, tough if you had to make me choose, I'll stick with Encarnacion and the price savings.

Miguel Cabrera FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @DET
FD - 13.21 DK - 10.01

There aren't many hitters that are easier to roster than Miguel Cabrera. While it seems like he stays out of the news nowadays, he is still the same steady AMAZING hitter he has been. He is still a top 3 hitter in baseball and a guy I want to target as much as possible, and especially when he may not be popular. The Tigers as a whole are very much in play tonight and we will touch on them a couple more times. Ubaldo Jimenez is not a good pitcher and will be pitching against of the more lethal offenses in the game with J.D. Martinez back from injury. Cabrera has hit righties to a .365+ wOBA for his entire career and his peripherals are no different this season. His price is very fair on both sites and Cabrera is the top cash game option on the late slate. With DraftKings prices being so high lately, it'll be tough to stay away from Cabrera at that price.

Mike Napoli FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.59 DK - 7.99

This is another Rangers bat Brent touched on last night against Eflin, and he did a great job. He pointed out just how bad Eflin is and his putrid K rate that will help Napoli in a big way. While Napoli is a guy who has been a lefty masher for years, he's never been bad against righties either. In 2016, he sported a .338 wOBA and ended up hitting 27 homers against them. Napoli's big problem against righties is striking out. With Eflin not missing many bats, Napoli should make more contact than he is usually able to make. The game will take place in Globe Life Park, where Napoli held a .402 wOBA in 2016. While Cabrera is a lot safer and the guy I certainly prefer, Napoli is a lot cheaper and has a ton of upside.

Second Base

Jason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 3700
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.69

I think a lot of people forget how good Jason Kipnis is. In 2016, he was one of the best players around, though staying under the radar all year long. HE destroyed righties for a .353 wOBA and also hit 16 homers against them. Kipnis is extremely versatile and is easily my top option in all formats for the early slate. Alex Cobb is not pitching well and I think he may just be worse after his arm injury. The Indians are projected to score close to 5 runs and Kipnis will be right in heat of the action. While there are a couple other options, Kipnis stands out at his price. He isn't overly priced and shouldn't stick out to the general fan. Kipnis is the best play at the position and it isn't too close on this slate.

Rougned Odor FD 2800 DK 4100
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.76 DK - 9.43

We'll take a look at our 3rd Ranger so far, and we're not finished. Zach Eflin is probably the worst pitcher on the slate and when a team is projected to score 5.38 runs, you must pay attention. Odor, who is a pretty tough guy to profile, will be just fine. He's getting under the ball, though the power is still there with 6 HR so far against right-handers. Eflin on the other hand, is not very good. He's allowed a .341 career wOBA against lefties and has a huge problem with the HR ball. Globe Life Park is an extreme hitters park and plays very well for Odor, who pulls his HR's 87% of the time. While Odor is still in play on DraftKings, he's a bit better in tournaments. On FanDuel, Odor stands out like a sore thumb. He's easily the top option over there and will be my top guy in all formats.

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.92

On the early slate, shortstop is pretty barren. We've touched on Alex Cobb plenty now and there isn't too much else to say. We haven't seen much since 2014 and what we have seen, has been bad. While I'm not all-in on him being a bad pitcher, it's looking that way. His velocity has slightly dropped and he has gone from having 1 ++ pitch and 2 + pitches to having just 1 + pitch (fastball). Francisco Lindor, a switch-hitter, is better from the left side. It gives him a bit more power and stolen base upside, which matters when a guy is this expensive. He's sported a .361 wOBA since entering the league against righties and has hit the ball hard 37% of the time.  Progressive Field is pretty neutral, though it has played slight positive for hitting lately. The Indians as a whole are a great stack early in the day and I don't think they will be too heavily owned, relatively.

Elvis Andrus FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.25 DK - 8.8

I know, another Texas Ranger. With shortstop not being the most fruitful of positions on the day, I have no problem looking towards the top offense. Andrus should be hitting 2nd and is right up there with Addison Russel if that's the case. We've touched on Eflin plenty and there really isn't much to say about the guy. He's a youngster who hasn't missed bats and has n't shown much promise at all. His O-Swg% is only at 6%, which means batters are only swinging at pitches out of the zone 6% of the time. It definitely explains the putrid strikeout rate. Elvis Andrus, a righty, has posted a .331 wOBA against them since 2013. He's also stolen 25 bases in 10 straight seasons and will likely make it 11 as he already has 7 on the season. While Russell is still the highest rated SS of the main slate, Andrus is an extremely solid option in all formats.

Third Base

Wilmer Flores FD 2700 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.44 DK - 8.17

Third base on the early slate is not good at all. While you can target an Evan Longoria or Jose Ramirez, they aren't in the greatest of spots. However, Wilmer Flores is my easy top choice. While he's a guy who has a very bad reputation, I can't figure out why. It may be a bit of an over-exaggeration, but Flores may be one of the top 5 extreme platoon bats in the game. He is absolutely dominant against lefties. Over the last 3 years, he's posted a .373 wOBA against lefties and his power is very real. He will be facing a lefty in what happens to be the 2nd best ballpark in baseball for hitting. Patrick Corbin is a guy you want to target with righties. He's held a .353 wOBA against them over the last 3 seasons and there have been no signs of improvement. He's also been worse at Chase Field and with the Mets projected to score over 4.5 runs, you have to like the clean-up hitter at a weak position for pretty cheap. I also don't think Flores will be too highly-owned, so feel free to deploy him in all formats. Longoria, Ramirez, and Lamb are all in play as well, though they are a bit overpriced or in a sub-par matchup.

Maikel Franco FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.26

Maikel Franco and Miguel Sano are two 3rd baseman that are making huge improvements this season. In Franco's case, he's hitting the ball very hard and isn't swinging at nearly as many balls outside of the zone. With that patience, he has seen an increase in walk rate (+34%) and it looks like he's getting more pitches to hit. Against lefties, Franco has held a .341 wOBA against since entering the majors. He has the honor of traveling to Globe Life Park, which is a great ballpark for hitting. Martin Perez is a guy I love targeting with powerful righties, as it seems like he never fully blows up, but often gives up a solo shot or two to a right-hander. He's sported a .361 wOBA against lefties since 2014 and will only get better as he approaches his prime. Franco is an elite play in all formats and one I'll have exposure to.

Outfield

Carlos Beltran FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.83
George Springer FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.36

After touching on Brian McCann to start the bats off, we've ignored these Astros on the early slate. They are squarely in play against Jose Urena and I have no problem with the team stack. The Astros have a ton of upside and offense that can produce in a lot of different ways. Both Carlos Beltran and George Springer are good against righties, posting .340+ wOBA's in 2016. Springer hit the ball hard 42% of the time and should only improve with age. Beltran on the other hand, is a bit safer, though the HR upside is certainly there. Jose Urena is a young gun who is not ready for the majors just yet and should have a few more tough starts over the next 5. Springer is much more expensive than Beltran, which could lead to Springer being low-owned in tournaments. Either way, both of these guys are in play in all formats and I have no issue targeting this outfield as a mini stack.

Kyle Schwarber FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.72 DK - 8.98
Ben Zobrist FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.2 DK - 7.9

While we haven't touched on the Cubs just yet, they are firmly in play all over the place. Both Schwarber and Zobrist will be hitting from the left side, where Scott Feldman is horrible. He sported a .377 wOBA against lefties in 201 and hasn' been much better on this season. He'll be traveling into Wrigley Field and taking on one of the best offenses in the game. I don't think this one turns out well for Feldman and both of these guys should have something to do with that. Schwarber, a power lefty, has been slamming the ball lately. While he did start cold, he will be fine. As for Zobrist, he's a switch-hitter who hits well from both sides, so he'll have the platoon advantage no matter the situation. Wrigley Field is heavily dependent on the wind, so pay attention to twitter as the day progresses.

J.D. Martinez FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @DET
FD - 5.48 DK - 4.2

J.D. Martinez has come back and made an immediate impact on this team. He;s hitting the ball all over the place and essentially taking over right where he has always left off. Martinez is probably one of the top OF hitters in the league when healthy. It just seems like he has never been healthy for more than 3 months. He posted a .390 wOBA in 2016 against lefties and the perpherals looked legitimate. The Tigers stay home and invite Ubaldo Jimenez, who should be getting the boot early. This Tigers team is going to get to him and Martinez will have the opportunity to capitalize. Ubaldo Jimenez has been up and down every year it seems like, though his "ups" are his old "downs", so I guess it's relative. He's certainly coming to the end of his career and I wouldn't be surprised to see this be the last. His velocity is falling and he's nowhere near a guy who can rely on pure movement and "stuff". A

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