Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/15/17

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Pitcher

The Indians and Rays play at 6:10 EST, before the main slate. Both Carrasco and Archer are elite plays, with Carrasco being a bit safer. If you're playing the all-day slate, you almost have to have exposure to the mound in this game.

Chase Anderson FD 8500 DK 6800
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 26.99 DK - 18.09

This slate is probably the worst we have seen all year long in terms of pitching. We don't even have any good pitchers. The most talented pitcher on the slate is Brandon McCarthy. That's why I may end up playing the all-day slate for the sole reason of getting exposure to Carlos Carrasco and Chris Archer. They are far above the field and could outscore the field 2x with no surprise. There are a few decent options in the main slate and I'll do my best to find the 2 guys who I think have the best chance of not getting destroyed. Chase Anderson and the Brew Crew travel to Petco Park, which has been the best pitchers ballpark in baseball over the last few years. The Padres are a bad offense and it's never a bad idea to target them when you're looking for pitchers. Everyone in this lineup has either a high K rate or no power. Wil Myers and Ryan Schimpf are the 2 best bats against righties and will be the 2 guys who give Anderson the most trouble. I can't sit here and pretend Chase Anderson is some kind of good pitchers. He's very average and has been all over the place in terms of peripherals over the last 2 seasons. He was horrible against righties last year but has turned that around and given up a .295 wOBA to them this season. On the flip side, he's now allowing a .370 wOBA to righties, though a .390 BABIP has something to do with that. I think Anderson will start to straighten out his numbers against lefties and if he can keep up the production against righties, he will be in for some solid starts. While I don't think Anderson is a guy with huge upside in this spot, I see him being my favorite cash game option when it's said and done. He should get plenty of run support and takes on a team that is simply bad in a huge ballpark.

Jesse Chavez FD 7200 DK 7800
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @LAA
FD - 29.17 DK - 19.31

When Jesse Chavez is being recommended in the main picks article, you know pitcher as a whole is an atrocity. Chavez is a journeyman who has always struggled and tends to rely on his fastball, throwing it more than an average righty. When he can pinpoint his fastball, he's not a bad pitcher. He can get guys to miss on his off-speed (SwSk 17%) pitches and can get up to 110 pitches. On the other hand, when his fastball is out of the zone, he's pitiful. He will walk a ton of batters and end up leaving one over the plate, usually to a guy who can hit it really far. For that reason, this is a guy I will probably stay away from in cash games, even at the cheap price. That's not to say he has nothing working for him. He is at Angels Stadium and gets to face-off with one of the worst road offenses in baseball, the White Sox. The Sox ranked 26th last year and 23rd this year in terms of wOBA vs R on the road. They are used to playing at U.S. Cellular Field (small park) and have still struggled to put up runs. If Chavez is able to work away with the likes of Abreu and Frazier, he should be just fine. The rest of the order is filled with K-heavy righties and lefties without much pop. The Sox have the 2nd lowest implied team total on the board and Vegas has them as a big favorite. Without any solid pitching on this slate, I don't mind Chavez in any format. Personally, he will be in my tournaments. As a note, he's a bit too expensive on DK and I would rather go Anderson with the savings.

Catcher

Jacob Realmuto FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - HOU (Musgrove) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.24 DK - 6.73

Catcher is always a bit difficult to peg. We don't have anyone that stands out on this slate, though there are quite a few guys that are "alright" plays. Realmuto is my favorite of that bunch. He was a lot better against righties last season (.348 wOBA) and his peripherals didn't look fluky. He's started this season nicely and looks to be a pretty solid all-around hitter. He faces off with Joe Musgrove tonight, who is a rather average pitcher right now. He's given up a .332 wOBA to righties in 56 career innings and hasn't struck many of them out ( 7 K/9). Realmuto is fairly priced across the industry and I'm a fan of him in all formats. He does have a tinge of upside, though he's typically a guy you look to drive in a run or two and rack up fantasy points that way. If you want to look for a guy with a lot more upside, let's take a look at Evan Gattis.

Evan Gattis FD 3400 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @MIA
FD - 5.06 DK - 3.84
Brian McCann FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.37 DK - 7.09

If you're looking for a guy with a lot of upside at a position that lacks just that, you can look at Evan Gattis or Brian McCann. While they'll usually strikeout 2 times each, both of these guys are pretty consistent. They put the bat on the ball a lot and with the Astros having such a good offense, there are usually some guys on-base. They have been good against righties, sporting a .334+ wOBA against them since 2015. Dan Straily, the pitcher they will be facing off with, has been worse against righties than lefties. In 2016, he allowed a .332 wOBA and did struggle a bit keeping the ball in the park. HE wasn't great against lefties either and his peripherals actually suggest some regression is due. If you want to get exposure to a strong Astros offense as a weaker position, you can do that with either of these guys.

First Base

Freddie Freeman FD 4900 DK 4900
Opponent - TOR (Bolsinger) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.17 DK - 8.49

You gotta love Freddie Freeman. He's just so good. While his current .494 wOBA might not be completely sustainable, Freeman is clearly one of the best hitters in baseball. He is possibly the best hitter in the league against righties and moves into the Rogers Centre, which is an upgrade from SunTrust. The Braves, one of the weaker offenses around, is projected for 4.22 runs as of now, which is high. Mike Bolsinger is not an atrocious pitcher, though he isn't very good either. He allowed a .348 wOBA against lefties in 2015 (last full season) and has always had trouble keeping the ball in the park. Freeman is very expensive and while I doubt it will, let's hope that keeps some people off of him. He's one of my top priorities on this slate and easily my top cash game 1B. He's almost a lock to drive the ball a time or two, let alone if the Braves get guys on-base before Freeman. All in all, he's in a great spot and there won't be too many spots where Freddie Freeman is in a reliable hitters park (SunTrust still up in the air).

Eric Thames FD 4200 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.81

With this slate being one without expensive pitching, I don't feel it's necessary to pay down at first base. The position has too much power and I do think of these top guys will have a big game. Eric Thames and the Brewers are one of the top offense son this slate, facing off with Luis Perdomo. Perdomo is pitiful against lefties, allowing a .378 wOBA and 16 homers in just 75 career innings. We want to get a lot of exposure to these left-handed Brewers and it all starts with Eric Thames. While Thames has expectedly slowed down, he's still a great power lefty against righties. He has as much thump in his bat as anyone in the league and will end up being in the race for HR leader. While his numbers are way too small to use as a predictive stat, there isn't much else to use. He was great against righties in Korea and did profile as a guy who would rake against them coming into the season.  He's fully lived up to the hype and gets one of the absolute best match-ups around. Luis Perdomo gives up a ton of homers to lefties and Thames is my pick for HR of the night. To be clear, Freddie Freeman is still my favorite cash game option at the position.

Second Base

Neil Walker FD 3700 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.06 DK - 6.99

I wrote up Neil Walker yesterday and he came through with a huge night, going 3-for-5 with 2 doubles and driving in 3 runs. He's a very good hitter and is finally coming around on the season. He's been awesome against righties for a few years now and ended up with a .349 wOBA over the last 2. The Mets are a huge mess right now and will be moving into Chase Field, where the offense should continue doing work. Zack Goldey will stand 60 feet 6 inches from Walker and ultimately not do much. He held a pitiful .376 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and held a 4.46 BB/9. With this game being at Chase Field, I love the Mets lefties. Walker will be right in the heart of the order and makes a lot of sense in both cash games and tournaments. He's been swinging the bat well and like I said yesterday, this is one of the few guys I tend to pay attention to how hot or cold he is. Once the Mets get to the bullpen, we shouldn't expect much more. They only have 1 good lefty and he's not a guy they will throw out sparingly. This entire Mets offense is in play and we'll touch on them in a big way in the OF.

Jonathan Villar FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 8.96 DK - 8.2

The Brewers are going to be a team I target a lot tonight. While I know some may think they have some real studs in the bottom of the order, this is one of the more concentrated offenses in baseball. With Ryan Braun out, even more so. Villar figures to lead-off and has the honor of taking on Luis Perdomo, who we've touched on. He's not good against lefties (.378 wOBA) and has just as much issue with holding runners. Austin Hedges has an average arm and hasn't shown anything to be scared of. Villar stole 62 bases last year and I think a lot of people forget that when looking at him. He's still a very good hitter against righties (.341 wOBA) and has flashed plenty of power. While priced up on DraftKings, the Brewers are very cheap on FanDuel and make for a great cash game stack. Petco Park is a tough park to hit in, though it's slightly better for lefties. Villar far from relies on the long ball and can double his "value" without hitting it in the outfield. Walker and Villar are very similar plays to me and I may end up going 50/50 in both cash games and tournaments.

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Shortstop

Jean Segura FD 4400 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @SEA
FD - 10.81 DK - 9.29

I'm not the guy who wants to target Sean Manaea too often, though there are definitely some greats spots to do it. Manaea has been very lucky this year and I'm hoping people avoid these Mariners because of it. Jean Segura recently came off the DL and has shown why he is so heavily hyped. Segura is a very good hitter and has both pop and speed, which is hard to find at the SS position. Over the last 2 seasons, Segura has sported a .341 wOBA against lefties. He's also stolen 56 bases and hit 26 home runs dating back to 2015. Segura has a ton of upside and will almost never give you a dud. His price is expensive, though it doesn't really matter on this slate. With our favorite pitcher being Chase Anderson, you will have plenty of salary to use.  He's my favorite option in cash as of now and will stay there as long as he's hitting lead-off with the proper protection. With that being said, there is definitely another guy at SS who deserves a lot of attention. Nonetheless, these Mariners righties are firmly in play and we'll touch on an even more explosive one a bit later.

Corey Seager FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.72

Someone commented a few days ago saying I love to write up Corey Seager. Yes, yes I do. Seager is probably my favorite player in baseball to roster. He's been very predictable for me as it seems like he simply dominates every time he faces a bad righty. He works the count deep and will NEVER give you 4 cheap at-bats. Seager sported a .400 wOBA against righties in 2016 and showed peripherals that matched. At just 23, Seager is only getting better. He's actually been a bit unlucky this season with BABIP and has still held a .397 wOBA. The Dodgers will be facing off with Matt Cain tonight, who is somehow still in the league and doing decent. Well not really. He's getting lucky with a .240 BABIP. He allowed a 386 wOBA in 2016 to lefties and even though AT&T Park is a rough ballpark, it's not much worse than Dodgers stadium for lefties. There is a somewhat  "short porch" in right field and Seager definitely has the power to hit it out here. If you want to pivot off an expensive Jean Segura, I have no problem going to Seager. He will be one of my top tournament plays on the night and I will definitely be over the field.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - NYM (Wheeler) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.94

Jake Lamb against a righty at home. it's not going to change. He was written up yesterday and ended up going 3-for-6 with a double. He also hit one that was about 10 inches from a homer. He sees an even better match-up tonight with Zack Wheeler. While Wheeler is definitely not a bad pitcher, he does struggle against lefties, allowing a .334 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate since 2014. Chase Field is a much worse park for pitching than Citi Field and I don't think Wheeler ends up having a good game here. The D-Backs as a whole are very lethal in chase Field and it starts with Lamb against righties. He's sported a .380+ wOBA against them in every real sample size and will only get better as he stays healthy for an extended period of time. Lamb is the top option in cash games at 3B and is a guy I'll have a lot of exposure to in tournaments as well.

Justin Turner FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 9.57 DK - 7.41

Third base isn't too great tonight. While there are definitely some quality bats to pick from, we are a bit spoiled at the other positions. Justin Turner is a guy you want to target against righties, even though he is right-handed himself. Over the last 3 years, Turner has sported a .364 wOBA against righties and has the peripherals to support the reverse splits. He should be hitting 3rd behind Corey Seager and have a few RBI opportunities. Matt Cain is not a good pitcher at all and his .241 BABIP has everything to do with his decency so far. Last season, Cain was smacked around by righties with a .353 BABIP and 5.11 xFIP. AT&T Park is definitely tough for righties and while I don't think Turner has legitimate HR upside here, he can score in many different ways. This entire Dodgers offense is a great tournaments stack and I love pairing Turner + Seager in cash games as well. Turner is fairly priced don both sites and you can get a comfortable step down from Jake Lamb if you need or want to.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD 5400 DK 5400
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @LAA
FD - 14.13 DK - 11.13
Kole Calhoun FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.39

We somehow haven't touched on the Angels yet against Mike Pelfrey. Oh wait, I know exactly how. This lineup is so bad. Outside of Trout, Calhoun, and maybe Pujols, I have 0 interest in anyone else. Yunel Escobar shouldn't be in the MLB, let alone getting more at-bats than Michael Trout. Ridiculous. Before I get too upset about how boring and pitiful this Angels team is, let's talk about the guys who keep this team afloat. Mike Trout is the best player in the league and looks to be only improving at the plate. He's lowered his K rate and upped his contact %, all while hitting more HR per at-bat. He's as good as it gets and you will have to pay for him. As for Calhoun, he's been great against righties (.351 wOBA) since 2015 and does a great job of getting on-base. Mike Pelfrey is one of the worst pitchers in baseball and even against the Angels, should be out of there quickly. if you want to run a full stack of this Angels team, I would go ith Valbuena over Escobar 100/100 times. He has more power and won't fall asleep at the plate or in the field.

Nelson Cruz FD 4900 DK 4500
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @SEA
FD - 13.74 DK - 10.4

The  Mariners have definitely taken on a lot fewer lefties than normal so far. Nelson Cruz is a guy I target every game against southpaws and it seems like the opportunities have been far more barren this season. Cruz is a notorious lefty masher and should be highly-owned because of it. In 2016, Cruz ended up smashing lefties to the tune of a .419 wOBA. He also belted 19 homers against them and hit the ball hard over 40% of the time. Sean Manaea, who we did touch on, has gotten lucky this season. Looking to last year, he did struggle against righties and keeping the ball down. Cruz is one of the bigger platoon-specific rakers in the game and should be able to get to Manaea here. With a lot of quality options in the outfield, I have a feeling Cruz may be lower-owned than he should be. He's one of the leading candidates to hit 2 HR on a night when facing a lefty and it usually happens a couple times during the season. While he's nowhere near as good of a play as Trout, the price is reflective of that. Cruz and the rest of these Mariners righties are in play, though I like them a lot more as a full stack than I do as 1-offs (outside of Cruz and Segura).

Michael Conforto FD 4200 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.83 DK - 7.64
Jay Bruce FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.34 DK - 7.22
Curtis Granderson FD 2500 DK 4400
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.69 DK - 6.7

I know, what a cop out! All 3 of these Mets lefties are squarely in play here and I don't think any 1 or 2 of them stand out, so decided to go with all 3. They face-off with Zack Godley, who we have touched on. He sported a .378 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and has shown absolutely no signs of improving. The game is at Chase Field and the Mets will see a huge ballpark bump. Conforto will hit lead-off and is probably the safest of the bunch. Bruce has been hitting in the 3 hole and should find himself there once again with Cespedes out. Granderson has bounced around the order a bit all season, though, against righties, he's usually been in the 2 or 6 hole. He has the most risk out of the 3, though his price and ownership will reflect that. This trio all hits righties well and Conforto + Bruce have been splendid to start the season. Grandy should start coming around as he's hitting the ball hard and just getting a bit unlucky. All 3 of these guys are in play in all formats and I don't mind combining the trio with Walker for a tournament stack.

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