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**Note - The Dodgers will definitely be the chalk tonight in Coors Field. I am going to dig a bit deeper and give you a couple other viable stacking options for tonight's main slate. I will also be recording YouTube video that will be added later in the day. I will be updating the weather situation in Washington as well as talking about my favorite pitchers and stacks. Stay tuned**
I am going to start out with the riskiest game of the night but it also comes with some huge upside from a stacking perspective. The ownership level could be down with the rain in the forecast once again, especially after the late postponement last night. The good news, if the game plays, is that the Nats are a top projected offensive team tonight as they face arguably the worst pitcher on the slate in Nick Pivetta of the Phillies. Pivetta will be making his third start as a rookie and is likely to be sent back down to AAA once Aaron Nola returns. He faced the Nats in his last start and was punished giving up nine hits and four earned runs on three long balls. Through two starts, he is giving up an unheard of 51% hard contact rate and 30% HR/FB rate. No, those numbers won't continue to run that bad but it is never good news facing a team that crushed you just a week ago. Stay tuned for my YouTube video later in the day as I will be updating the weather situation and the risk percentage.
This matchup has one of the highest game totals of the night and while I like both sides and a possible game stack, I lean the A's who could be much lower owned. The bad news is that they have been one of the lowest scoring teams on the season but the good news is that they have been better vs. right-handed pitching with a slightly above average 101 wRC+. The other good news is that they get to face Andrew Cashner in one of the best hitters parks in Arlington, Texas. Cashner has struggled with a 0-3 record to start the season in five starts and is walking right around 1.5 more batters per nine than he is striking out. That is not a good recipe for success and directly explains why his xFIP of 5.81 is over three runs higher than his ERA. Cashner has also struggled much more against right-handed hitters as he is giving up a .369 wOBA in 57 at bats. That makes Khris Davis my #1 target on the A's and I will surround him with the "rising" Yonder Alonso. I say rising as the 30-year-old, now slugger, put in a ton of time in the offseason working on his launch angle and told everyone that we should expect more power this season. He has not disappointed to this point as he has already passed his career high and sits with 11 bombs through 32 games.
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Keep up the good work. Helping me out a ton in DFS.
Truscott