Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/12/17

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Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 9800 DK 11300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 38.12 DK - 25.14

Even with the best pitcher in baseball, Coors Field is a huge red flag. However, this is Clayton Kershaw we're talking about. He's also priced down on a day without many great pitching options. Kershaw has been up and down in Coors Field over his career but has gone at least 5 2/3 in every game and seems to strikeout at least 8 every appearance.  At home (Coors Field), the Rockies hold the 6th highest wOBA in baseball and the 8th highest K rate against lefties. While the 6th best offense may be one we usually want to avoid, the Rockies should have the number 1 offense in the league by far playing at Coors Field. This isn't a great lineup against lefties as they end up relying on the power of Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds with Story on the DL. You all know how great Clayton Kershaw is so I'm not going to stuff the same stats down your throat every 5 days. He makes adjustments like no other pitcher and if anyone will be able to dominate in Coors Field, it's him. He makes sense in all formats and with his price down, you won't be forced to spend down elsewhere. With all of that being said, Kershaw is not the clear top option of the night. With Coors Field being such a hitters haven, there is definite merit in paying down. Let's take a look at a few options.

Johnny Cueto FD 9700 DK 12600
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @SF
FD - 32.84 DK - 21.69

There are 2 big turn-offs to rostering pitchers against the Reds. 1, Jose Peraza and Billy Hamilton are menaces on the basepaths. they can single-handedly blow up a start and make the pitcher get in his own head. 2nd is Great American Ballpark. Fortunately, they play in AT&T Park tonight, one of the most spacious ballparks in all of the league. They also face Johnny Cueto, who is easily the best pitcher in baseball at holding runners. He has a multitude of different pickoff moves and may be one of only a few guys that can contain Hamilton and Peraza on the paths. They do have some other good hitters, don't get me wrong. Joey Votto is an elite lefty and Adam Duvall is no slouch in the weight room. They both have upside and are the 2 guys who I am slightly worried about. Once you move a bit lower in the lineup, you see where Cueto may get some of those strikeouts. Mesoraco, Peraza, Suarez, and Arroyo are all guys who hold 24%+ K rates against righties and sub .310 wOBA's in Great American against R's. Cueto is still the same elite pitcher he has been for what seems like 10 years now. He'll hold a K rate right around 9 and usually stay in games for a minimum of 7 innings. He's safe as can be at home and should end up being pretty highly owned. The Reds are not a good offense and I have no problem moving off of Kershaw to target them. Cueto is a solid option in all formats and one I will have plenty of exposure to.

 

Tanner Roark FD 8600 DK 8800
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @WSH
FD - 34.51 DK - 22.63

The Nationals postponed last night's game due to rain, even though there was no rain and didn't look to be any for the next few (14) hours. The real reason they postponed the game is so they could jump over A.J. Cole and get back to the good part of the rotation. While I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of punishment handed down from the MLB, that shouldn't have any effect on Tanner Roark tonight. Roark, one of the more consistent arms of the short season, has sat right around the 6 IP/ 2 ER/ 5 K stat line all season long. If the Nats are able to put up some runs and Roark is able to strikeout a few more than average against the Phillies, that does it at his price. The Phillies have one of the weakest lineups in baseball, constantly striking out a ton and often hitting just 1 or 2 homers early in the game. The top of the Phillies order is fine, with Herrera and Franco being real threats. After them, they have a ton of high-K hitters who don't offer much in the power department. Nationals Park is a bit bigger than Citizens Bank and Roark has always done a good job of keeping the ball in the yard. If he's able to keep the likes of Joseph, Franco, and Altherr out of the seats, he should be able to pick up 7 or 8 strikeouts and get an easy win. Roark is a fine option if you're looking to pay down off of Kershaw or Cueto.

 

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 10.39 DK - 7.82

We have a game in Coors Field tonight with a 9 over/under, which is the lowest you will see it all season. That's because Clayton Kershaw is pitching. While Tyler Chatwood isn't necessarily a gas can, he is an average righty that is facing off with the Dodgers in Coors Field. Yasmani Grandal has looked pretty good this season, as he usually is when able to stay healthy for more than a week. Grandal has always been good against righties, posting a .351 wOBA dating back to 2015. He's also a switch-hitter, so he'll always have the platoon advantage. We'll touch more on Tyler Chatwood later, but just know he's a righty that has allowed a .330 wOBA and 13 homers to lefties in 80 innings since 2016. At a position that is always one of the weakest, targeting Coors Field is never a bad idea. Grandal is one of the catchers who can actually hit and he definitely holds a premium on both sites. If you can afford him, Grandal is the top option in all formats.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.53

If you want to get away from the inflated Coors Field price tag, I completely understand. We have some expensive pitching on the slate and we will have to pay down in a few spots. Fortunately, we can pay down for Jonathan Lucroy, who is under-prices. Lucroy has been bouncing around the order and no matter where he ends up, makes sense as a play. He's been fantastic against righties for 2 years now (.358 wOBA) and looks to be the same hitter he has been. Jesse Hahn, the opposing pitcher, is nothing to worry about. He's an underwhelming righty who's allowed a +4.50 xFIP since the start of 2016. Moving from the Oakland Coliseum to Globe Life Park is a big deal and I don't expect Hahn will handle it well. The Rangers are one of our favorite offenses of the night and shouldn't come in too highly owned with attention on Coors and Chase Field. Lucroy is very cheap across the industry and gives you a real piece of an elite offense. Fire away.

First Base

Freddie Freeman FD 4400 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.07

Freeman may be very expensive, but rightfully so. He's arguably the best hitter in baseball against righties and is far from reliant on a hitter's ballpark. Jose Urena is a young right-hander without much experience, who is going to continue to struggle in the majors until he can command his primary fastballs. He's sported a .364 wOBA against lefties and when there not hitting the ball hard in the gap, they're walking (3.42 BB/9). The only thing worse? How about the 3.72 K/9 he's held against left-handers. Yep, you read that right. A 3.72 K/9 in over 80 innings of work. Freddie Freeman is going to hit the ball hard and he's going to do it more than once If he's able to elevate or find the hole, you'll have yourself a low-owned superstar with an infinite ceiling. This might be one of the safest times to roster Freeman as well, considering there is an approximate 0% chance of him striking out. While the price is high, you can get yourself an elite hitter at 10% owned in a spot no worse than anyone else on the slate. This Braves team is in play for tournaments as anyone with a 3.72 K/9 has the real possibility of blowing up.

Carlos Santana FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.75
Edwin Encarnacion FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Santana) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.32

We all knew Ervin Santana wasn't the pitcher who went 9 innings earlier this year and had the endless Ervin Santana hype rekindled. He's more than likely an average pitcher right now who will struggle against both righties and lefties. Santana has allowed a .360+ wOBA for years now and none of his peripherals show us anything to believe he has all of a sudden changed. He's got a bit lucky to start the season and I look for him to return to the good ol' Ervin Santana. Both Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana are in play here and I like both in all formats. Santana is a switch-hitter who prefers to hit from the left side and will always have the platoon advantage. ENacrnacion is a bit more boom-or-bust, offering 2 HR upside on any given night. Progressive Field is a + park for power and both of these guys have a good shot of going yard in this one. Encarnacion is my pick for R of the night.

Second Base

Rougned Odor FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.71 DK - 8.59

At a position without much appeal tonight, these 2 guys stand far above the rest for me. With expensive pitching on the slate, I've gone with Odor first. Odor and the Rangers are a team we've already touched on and one we would touch more on if it wasn't for Coors. A lot of these guys are in play here and Odor finds himself in one of the best spots. He's essentially a power hitter against righties, posting a .247 ISO and belting 26 homers against them. Hahn on the other hand, has struggled with the longball, all while playing half of his game sin one of the biggest parks in the league. I expect the Rangers to hit a few homers in this one and Odor could very well have something to do with that. He's also a great cutter hitter, which is what Hahn throws primarily against left-handed batters. Odor held a .340 wOBA against righties in 2016 and should only improve with age. He's a fine play in all formats tonight and a guy I ill have plenty of exposure to. I will say he's a bit expensive on DK, where a lot of these Rangers are priced up. If you want to go elsewhere, let's take a look at a fantastic "pivot".

Daniel Murphy FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.45 DK - 9.04

Daniel Murphy is still REALLY good. If you have the funds to pay up for an elite bat at second, Daniel Murphy is your best option. He's one of the best hitters in baseball against righties (.419 wOBA in 2016) and has as much versatility as anyone at the plate. He hits around some more elite hitters in Trea Turner and Bryce Harper, which is why they all continue to see pitches to hit. Murphy will have a few more RBI chances tonight and I fully expect him to come through a time or two. This Nats team is expensive and that probably won't change all year long. They are right up there with the Cubs in terms of potency and raw power. They can get to a pitcher in many different ways, though a lot of them usually have to do with either Murphy or Harper. Pivetta was fine in the minors, though he did give up a lot of flyballs and got a bit lucky with peripherals. Expect him to struggle a bit in the majors as he irons out everything a 24-year-old rookie needs to. Murphy is a great way to go in all formats and if you can afford him, don't feel the need to switch your lineup around.

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.35

There is a real argument to be made for Corey Seager being the best SS in baseball. Personally, he's a top 5 overall player and definitely the top SS if I'm starting a franchise. This is a guy who is going to be a top hitter for a long time and is extremely balanced in every other facet of his game. Against righties, there aren't many better. At just 22 years old, Seager posted a .400 wOBA against righties in 2016. He hit the ball hard 40% of the time and only struck out at a 17.1% clip. He is elite in every sense of the word and will only improve this season as he approaches his prime. Tyler Chatwood is an average right-hander who brings nothing special to the table. He's allowed a .310-.350 wOBA in all 6 of his years against lefties and has always struggled with the HR ball. The Dodgers are going to score some runs in Coors Field and Seager is the best bat in the lineup. if you can afford him,  plug him into your cash games and tournaments.

Trea Turner FD 3700 DK 5200
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.6 DK - 10.36

Nick Pivetta was only slightly worse against lefties in the minors, so I'm willing to target him with everyone until he proves some kind of ability to pitch through an MLB game. Trea Turner is an elite hitter against righties and his price on FD is just silly. While Corey Seager is in an amazing spot, it will be tough to get off of Turner on FD at $3700.  He sported a .413 wOBA against righties in 2016 and while that may not be completely sustainable, I do think he's a .400 wOBA hitter. He also has a ton of power and can steal bases. He faces off with Nick Pivetta, who has been very average against everyone while in the minors. While he can strike some guys out, he gives up the long ball and a lot of hard contact. If you don't want to target Coors Field and would rather go a bit cheaper and lower-owned, I will not fault you. turner is an excellent spot and I will definitely have a hefty amount of ownership. Nationals Park is an average size and Turner has had no problem hitting there in the past (.411 wOBA). If you made me choose 1 for a cash game. I'm currently leaning Seager, though it's truly very close.

Aledmys Diaz FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - CHC (Butler) Park - @STL
FD - 10.4 DK - 8.23

if you need to pay down furthermore, you can definitely look at Aledmys Diaz. He's better against righties and sees one in Eddie Butler that we all know too well. Butler was an arm we targeted a lot in Coors Field and it usually paid off. he allowed a .380 combined wOBA in 2015 (last semi-full season) and showed no signs of getting better last year. He is likely going to struggle with Cardinals here in Busch Stadium and Diaz will find himself right in the heart of the order. In 2016, Diaz sported a .390 wOBA against righties, which is monstrous for a young middle-infielder. Diaz is priced down on both sites and makes a ton of sense in tournaments. While I definitely do prefer Seager and Turner, you have to pay down somewhere. If SS is that spot, make it Aledmys.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.87 DK - 8.41

Jake Lamb in Chase Field against a righty, sweet! There is almost nothing easier in MLB DFS. When Jake Lamb is facing off with an average or below average righty at home, you play him. There aren't too many spots better than this for Lamb, facing off with a guy in Tyler Glasnow who falls behind in counts and gets pummeled. Glasnow has allowed 10 of his 13 XBH while behind in the count, which shows just how serious his issue is. He's walked nearly 7, yes 7! batters per 9 innings. While we definitely can't expect a stupid number like that to hold, he obviously isn't able to locate his primary pitches just yet. This Diamondbacks team can be lethal, and when at home, they usually are. Lamb in particular, has sported a .400+ wOBA against righties since 2016 against righties and will continue to do so. He has a dominant approach and hits the ball hard what seems like every single time. While there are always going to be other options at third base, Lamb is my top guy in cash and tournaments. He is a bit much on DK and if you have to pay down there, I understand. Let's see a couple of your options.

Josh Harrison FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.75 DK - 8.23

This one is pretty cut and dry. We have a guy in Josh Harrison who is a specialist against lefties, facing off with a guy who has consistently given up a .370 wOBA against righties for the better part of 5 seasons. Patrick Corbin has been a prospect for a while now, but won't be able to get there as long as he's allowing righties to hit the ball hard nearly 35% of the time. He's in Chase Field and we should see the ball flying in this one. Also, as a side note, keep an eye out for news on Chase Field. They will be adding the humidor to the baseball soon, which projects to hurt the run production a ton. It's not something you need to worry about tonight, though something you definitely want to be ahead of the curve on. Harrison will be hitting lead-off once again and even with the other solid options, makes for a very solid play in all formats. He is too cheap on both FD and DK and could draw some inflated ownership because of it. If you need to save money and want a guy who can steal a bag and hit a homer against a lefty, take a look at Harrison.

Outfield

David Peralta FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.83

First of all, I'd like to point out these prices on David Peralta. This is the same exact hitter we saw last year. I guess some may just look at his batting average and assume something is up, but no. He's just facing a lot more lefties than he will when given a full-season sample. He's still holding the elite .365 wOBA against righties and has always been a fantastic hitter in Chase Field. In his last full year (2015), Peralta posted a .397 wOBA against righties nearly matching the dominance of Jake Lamb. In cash games, I see no way to avoid David Peralta. He is far too cheap and the match-up sets up perfectly. Tyler Glasnow is a young gun who tends to fall behind early and force the ball in the zone. He's sported poor numbers in his short career and as we see a larger sample size, he should get better. However, that may be after another year or two in AA. As of now, Glasnow doesn't have it. Against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field, it may definitely get ugly. Peralta is the top OF option in all formats and will be a tough one to get away from at the depressed tag.

Khris Davis FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.93 DK - 8.3

Khris Davis on the road in a hitters ballpark against a flyball pitcher? Sign me up. Khris Davis is easily one of my favorite players in the MLB to roster and I feel like I have a pretty good gauge on his production. He's already hit 10 homers on the season and may end up exceeding the 42 he hit in 2016. 32 of them came against righties, whom Davis hit the ball 40% of the time against. Tonight's opposing pitcher, Andrew Cashner, is one of the best match-ups in baseball for Khrush Davis. He's an extreme flyball pitcher that relies on soft contact and eye level changes. Davis is a master at hitting the high ball and will have no problem with Cashner. He has as good of a shot as ever to hit one out and shouldn't be too heavily owned. Along with David Peralta, he will be my highest owned OF'er. With that being said, Davis is always going to be a GPP option. He swings for the fences on every pitch and has the ability to K 4 times against anyone. It's either Khrush or KKKKhris by the time most games are over. If tonight is one of the off-games, we'll be suffering together.

Joc Pederson FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 9.85 DK - 7.55

Pederson has been hitting leadoff against righties and should find himself there once again tonight in Coors Field. He is priced up around the industry, though not to the same degree as a lot of the other Dodgers' bats. While Chatwood isn't a typical no-name Colorado call-up, he's also not a Jon Gray or Senzatela. He's a 27-year-old who's been in and out of the majors in an attempt to find command and more movement. It hasn't happened, so he's the same guy he always has been, allowing too many homers and falling behind early in counts. Batters like Pederson will take advantage in Coors Field, always swinging for the fences. Pederson is definitely more of a tournament play by nature and I don't think that changes in Coors Field, unless you think this entire Dodgers team has a big night in which case Pederson would likely see 6 AB's. The entire Dodgers lineup is in play tonight and I wouldn't be surprised to see some run the fade wth the low over/under. Also, Yasiel Puig is in play if he finds himself in a good lineup spot.

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