Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/6/17

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Clayton Kershaw FD 12300 DK 14200
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @LAD
FD - 42.15 DK - 27.71
I had written up my pitchers with the theme of cheap arms, since the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel was less than 10K, and the ones on DraftKings that were over 10K weren't necessarily worth paying up for, then the Dodgers went and swapped Kershaw and Brandon McCarthy in the rotation. We had originally targeted McCarthy as the third pitcher for today in a good spot against the Padres, so that speaks volumes to just how good a play Kershaw is. Kershaw is basically a must play in cash games every time he steps to the rubber, today however it's amplified by how tremendously bad the Padres are at the plate. The Padres have the third worst team wOBA in baseball (.287) and the third highest K% at 24.5%. As if that's not bad enough the numbers get even worse when you consider the split, against southpaws the Padres have a collective wOBA of .256 with a .118 ISO. They strikeout slightly less against lefties, but that's insignifcant in the grand scheme of things. This is Kershaw against the Padres. That's all that really needs be said.

Jake Odorizzi FD 7500 DK 7900
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TB
FD - 32.37 DK - 21.3
From a points per dollar perspective, Jake Odorizzi comes in our projection system head and shoulders above the rest. Odorizzi comes into today with a 1-1 record, recently returned from a left hamstring strain with a career 3.74 ERA, .276 BABIP striking out 8.22 batters per nine and will take the hill against the Blue Jays. Here we are, a month in to the season, and still waiting to see if the Jays can break out of their funk and play some winning basball. They carry the second worst team wOBA in the American League (.294) which dips to .287 against right handed arms and strike out 22.6% of the time. Odorizzi has had some trouble with the long ball early on, allowing 2 HR/9 but against Toronto, I'm not too worried. This game falls in the three game early slate and I'll have a ton of Odorizzi in all formats.

Gerrit Cole FD 9500 DK 9600
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @PIT
FD - 34.88 DK - 22.94
If you want to live dangerously and fade off of Kershaw in cash, or just want a good tournament option for the main slate, then Gerrit Cole is your guy. Cole is off to a great start to 2017, after getting rocked in his first start of the year in Fenway, where he allowed 5 runs in 5 innings, he's settled into a string of four straight starts allowing 2 runs or less, while striking out an average of 7 batters per start in that span. The Pirates don't offer much in the way of run support which has held him winless despite 3 straight quality starts, and though Pittsburgh is heavily favored, the win isn't even as important to consider when going against the Brewers who strike out more than any other team in the National League (25.2%). Milwaukee is sporting a respectable .337 team wOBA which dips to .323 against right handed pitchers, but Cole is one of the top arms in the National League with a .355 SIERA, an 8.5 K/9 and 1.14 WHIP.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 2700 DK 3400
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 8.43 DK - 6.35
The Dodgers continue their series in Petco against the Padres tonight taking on Clayton Richard and his 4.29 ERA. This presents a perfect opportunity for Grandal to shake off this past week leading in to the series with San Diego in which he went 4-19 with just one extra base hit and one RBI. Richard is walking 2.78/9 with a 1.49 WHIP and an 84.7 medium-hard hit percentage. Grandal hits high enough in the order at a bargain price across the industry to love his opportunity tonight.

Victor Martinez FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - OAK (Hahn) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.3 DK - 7.12
Victor Martinez has had a couple of productive series against the Indians and the White Sox, and this weekend he is in Oakland where tonight he faces Jesse Hahn. The 27 yr old, now in his fourth season has a career 3.66 ERA, and struggles with control striking out only 6.63 batters per 9, while walking 3.08 with a 1.25 WHIP. VMart has reached base safely in 5 of his last six with 2 extra base hits, and has driven in at least one RBI in each of those 5 as well.

Gary Sanchez FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - CHC (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.08
Gary Sanchez was reactivated after missing nearly 4 weeks with a bicep strain. In his first gme back yesterday he went 0-4 at the plate striking out once. Today he will face Brett Anderson. Anderson is 2-1 through 5 starts with a 6.23 ERA, 1.85 WHIP and 4.95 SIERA. The Yanks had Sanchez third in the order yesterday against Hector Rondon, and if he remains in the three hole you have to like him against Anderson, particularly on FanDuel where he's an absolute steal.

First Base

Chris Davis FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.15
The system loves it some Chris Davis today against the White Sox. He comes in as the top overall point per dollar play at first and second behind only Paul Goldschmidt in Coors for raw point total. Crush didn't have the best week up in Boston, going 2-11 with three walks, but got this series with Chicago off to a nice start with a walk, three hits, a home run, a walk and an RBI against Miguel Gonzalez. If some home cookin' is all it takes then look for him to continue driving the ball today against Dylan Covey.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3100 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @KC
FD - 10.55 DK - 7.9
Edwin Encarnacion is having a tough time settling in to his new surroundings in Cleveland, with a .198 avg, 4 home runs and only 9 RBI, while striking out at an alarming 33.1% clip, but there is reason to believe he he will find himself sooner rather than later. He's sporting a .305 wOBA, and 48.3% hard hit rate. While I might not roll the dice in cash games on a full slate, on the three game early slate I'll give strong consideration to E.E. against Jason Vargas and his 4.47 career SIERA and .315 wOBA against right handed bats.

Albert Pujols FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - HOU (McCullers) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.47
Albert Pujols got off to a sluggish start to the season, but seems to be putting that in the rearview. During the three game series in Seattle earlier this week he went 5-14 with a walk, 2 doubles, three runs and even managed to swipe a bag. He'll step into the box against Lance McCullers today as the Angels continue their series hosting the Astros. First base is flush with great plays today, but if you're looking to save some salary after loading up on Coors bats, you could do worse than Pujols.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - MIN (Tepesch) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.8 DK - 8.53
Boston is looking to be the early favorite for bats to target in the early slate and Vegas agrees, with the Sox projected for 5.4 runs, the highest of the three early games. Dustin Pedroia spent several games batting down in the six spot in the line up, and it seemed to do wonders for his bat, with him hitting .412 at that spot. He has since returned to the lead off spot and went 2-6 with a home run, a walk and 2 RBI in the final 2 games against the Orioles. Today he faces off with the Nick Tepesch who the Twins have called up to take the fifth spot in the rotation. We don't have much to go on with Tepesch, who has made 40 big league starts dating back to 2013 but only 1 in the past 3 seasons. Over his career Tepesch has a 4.58 ERA, a 1.37 WHIP and only strikes out 5.24 per 9. Expect the Red Sox to be the chalk of chalk in the early slate.

DJ LeMahieu FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @COL
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.81
DJ LeMahieu comes in as the top overall point play at second base on the main slate, and is behind only Jed Lowrie for points per dollar. I assume the pricing discrepancy on FanDuel can be attributed to the fact that in 13 games at Coors, LeMahieu has only one home run this season, but I won't let that deter me. Anytime I can get a bat in Coors hitting in the top of the order for less than 4K, I am all over it. LeMahieu is 6-23 with a double, three walks, three RBI, and 2 runs in his last six games heading in to the weekend series with Arizona, which were played on the road, so even if he isn't hitting it out he's still finding ways to contribute fantasy production and makes a fantastic play in all formats.

Ben Zobrist FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.62
The Cubs are spending another weekend against the American League. Last Week it was Boston, this week it's the Yankees. Ben Zobrist will bring his 8 game hitting streak to the plate today against Jordan Montgomery. The young rookie is 1-1 through 4 big league starts, and while that's not much to go on we can notice some trends forming, such as the control issues contributing to the 4.15 BB/9, the 1.48 WHIP and the 4.10 SIERA. The .345 wOBA bodes well for the potent Cubs lineup to knock him around the park a bit, and Zobrist will be at the heart of it.

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Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Tepesch) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.48 DK - 9.13
As I said earlier, I expect the Red Sox to be THE PLAY on the early slate, and that of course includes Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts has the fifth best wOBA among shortstops through the first month of the season at .340 and his 10.4 K% is the third lowest at the position. Batting fifth behind the likes of Pedroia, Betts, and Ramirez, he should have ample opportunity to drive in some runs and is coming at a price, particularly on FanDuel that is hard to resist.

Tim Anderson FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.11 DK - 7
A much better play on FanDuel than DraftKings, where I would probably limit him to tournaments. You'll see we love the Orioles bats in this game, but over in the opposing dugout we have Tim Anderson. Anderson has reached base safely in four of his last five contests and went 2-5 in last night's series opener with the O's. Six starts in Dylan Bundy is sporting a .262 wOBA, but his xFIP is .458 with a SIERA of 4.68 and both home runs he has allowed so far have come to right handed bats. Batting in the top third of the order you have to love Anderson priced at a bargain on FanDuel.

Trevor Story FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @COL
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.67
Purely a GPP play here. Story has struggled some to start the season, going to the bench for the Rockies final game in San Diego, before returning to the starting lineup to open the home series with the Diamondbacks and going 0-3 with a walk. Still, this is Coors Field and Story is a a solid piece to any Colorado stack. Particularly against Patrick Corbin, with his 4.12 SIERA and 2.8 BB/9. The young shortstops average was 100 points higher last season, and his strikeout percentage was 7% lower, so if he can jut clear his head and regain his focus he could be due to breakout huge, and when you play half of your season at Coors Field, there's no place like home to do it.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.35 DK - 10.34
It was an eventful week to say the least for the Orioles in Fenway Park, but now they return home to Baltimore and back to crushing baseballs. Manny Machado is another player who got off to a sluggish start to the season, but has turned on the heat as of late. In his last six games, Machado 5-24 with 3 home runs, 6 RBI and 6 runs scored. Tonight he steps into the box against Dylan Covey. Covey is 0-2 in 4 starts with a 7.29 ERA 5.98 XFIP and is allowing 2.14 HR/9. The Orioles have the highest projected run total outside of Coors on the main slate, and I wouldn't exactly be surprised to see them surpass the Coors teams.

Anthony Rendon FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.83
The Phillies pitching has been hard to watch this season. Vince Velasquez, who had a serviceable 2016 is showing a significant drop off in production through the first few starts of his 2017 campaign. While his strikeout numbers remain high, just under 9/9 through his first 5 starts, he's allowing over 2 more BB/9 (5.13) along with 2.09 HR/9 and 1.46WHIP. Anthony Rendon will pick up tonight where he left off last night going 3-4 with a home run, a walk, and 2 RBI. With Bryce Harper considered day-to-day with groin tightness, Rendon will lead the Nationals offense against a pitching staff allowing 1.53 HR/9, more than any other team in baseball.

Evan Longoria FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @TB
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.44
There isn't a whole lot to love at the hot corner on the early slate, so I'm looking at Evan Longoria going against Marco Estrada and the Blue Jays as a cheap way out of the position. Last night, Longoria was 3-4 at the dish with a walk, a double and a run scored, it was his second straight contest with an extra base hit, and three of his last 5 hits have gone for extra. Estrada is 1-1 in 6 starts with a 1.23 WHIP and a 2.43 ERA. It's not the best situation for Longoria, but considering the price, there's plenty of upside potential.

Outfield

Seth Smith FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.83
Adam Jones FD 3100 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.85 DK - 9.18
We start off our outfielders with two plays from the team the system is loving today. We've already covered two Orioles in Davis and Machado, Now we'll discuss Seth Smith and Adam Jones. Between the final game of the Boston series, and last night's opener to this series Smith has gone 6-8 with a double a walk 2 RBI and 3 runs scored while swiping a bag. Jones meanwhile went hitless at the plate last night, after a 2-16 stretch in Boston, but the X factor here is Dylan Covey. I presented his numbers up on Machado's write up, and that there is enough to put the whole Baltimore lineup in consideration, now that they've returned home and have the drama of the Boston series behind them.

Josh Reddick FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - LAA (Ramirez) Park - @LAA
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.22
The price on FanDuel has gone up, while the DraftKings price has dropped down since last night, and I think both actually have it right. Reddick has been solid since climbing to the second spot in the order and has reached base safely in 6 of his last 8 games going in to this weekend series with the Angels. The match up with JC Ramirez isn't ideal but given the price point Reddick is still worthy of consideration in all formats across the industry.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.27
While I prefer the plays above for cash games, and they all come in as higher point per dollar plays in the system, Giancarlo Stanton has a higher projected raw point total and presents more potential upside against Robert Gsellman. Last night Stanton went 1-4 with a double, a walk, an RBI and a run scored in the Marlins 8-7 loss at Citi Field. Through 5 starts Gsellman is 1-2 with a 1.65 WHIP, allowing 3.38 BB/9, with a .352 BABIP. The DraftKings price is somewhat steep, but I love the potential on FanDuel batting cleanup in homerun friendly Citi Field against a pitcher with a 29.7% hard hit rate.

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