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The Astros are the second highest projected scoring team of the day right behind the Nats and should come with slightly lower ownership as well. The Astros have been crushing the ball lately ranking 5th in wOBA(.373) and 3rd in wRC+(146) over the past seven days with a very high .203 isolated power number. Taking a look at the splits, they also crush right-handed pitching to the tune of the second best wOBA(.348) and wRC+(128) of any team and also strike out less than 27 other teams. They get a great opportunity to build on those numbers today as they face off with the Texas Rangers and A.J. Griffin. On the surface, he may not seem like an excellent pitcher to stack against but dig deeper and we see his ERA at 4.11 and the xFIP slightly worse at 4.22 suggesting things may not get much better moving forward. In fact, he may actually regress the opposite direction as he is currently running a very low .167 BABIP, close to 100 points lower than his career mark. The other factor that really stands out for the Astros is that Griffin is giving up a 48.7% hard contact rate and producing just 25% ground balls. This is not good news vs. a lethal lineup that starts with George Springer at the top and continues on through Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa. Keep an eye on the lineups as Marwin Gonzalez makes a great value today if he is near the top of the order. He has gone 9 for 19 over the last week with two doubles, five home runs and has driven in 13 runs.
Believe it or not the Red Sox rank right near the bottom in total runs scored this season(27th) through just over a month of the season. I lead with that in hopes some will read that and avoid them tonight. Fat chance! There are only five games on the main slate and this game has the highest total(10) of all of them. They will most definitely be chalky but worth the ownership risk, especially in cash games. The good news for the Red Sox offense is that they have scored five or more runs in four of their last six games and have dropped their K rate to less than 16% over the last seven days. Even better news, they get to face gas can Ubaldo Jimenez tonight and his less than intimidating 90 mph fastball. That fastball combined with his other pitches are producing a very low 5.9% swing strike rate which explains the awful 6.58 ERA. He is also currently walking the exact same amount of batters(6.23 per nine) as he is striking out and his 5.66 xFIP suggest the regression may not be coming anytime soon. When stacking a team, we always want power upside and home runs rule fantasy points, especially on DraftKings. Great news! Jimenez is giving up 36.4% hard contact and an abysmal 20% HR/FB rate. Time for the Red Sox to tee off and hit double digits tonight at home.
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Jimenez is not pitching tonight. Tyler Wilson is
Yes, we know. Article was written up when he was still projected. Everything has been updated in the projections. Still a great stack with Boston.