Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/2/17

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Pitcher

Chris Sale FD 11700 DK 12500
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @BOS
FD - 39.92 DK - 26.29

If Clayton Kershaw is in a tier unto himself, Chris Sale just might be leading the pack among the 1-A guys. Early in 2017, he's third among qualifying pitchers in Ks/9, second in ERA, second in FIP and first in xFIP. And if you broaden the sample to include the last two-plus seasons, the story's pretty similar -- sixth in FIP, sixth in xFIP. None of this is breaking news, of course. Sale's a well-established stud. Sometimes it's just good to put it into context. Picking on Baltimore isn't fun, because even when they're scuffling -- as they did at times during April -- there's still enough latent power in this lineup to make them dangerous. Taking that into consideration, we're still good with Sale as our top pitcher, as long as you can find the value bats to go with him. The Ks he's running up this season raise the floor and the ceiling, and there are plenty of Ks to be had in the Baltimore lineup. They rank second in 2017 in Ks/9 vs. LHP, so even if they pop one (or two), we think the points will still be there for Sale.

Carlos Martinez FD 9100 DK 8900
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @STL
FD - 36.47 DK - 23.97

For a little bit cheaper, you can get a lot of Sale's risk-reward mix in Martinez. Obviously, the safety and upside aren't quite as abundant here, but there's enough of each to make Martinez a viable cash game play when you factor in the discount. Through five starts this season, he's been a strikeout monster, picking up 39 in 28.2 IP. On the downside, his walks and homers allowed are both trending in the wrong direction, which could be problematic against Milwaukee's thumpers, who lead the league in ISO vs. RHP. We think he's due for some positive regression in the HR category -- he's been excellent at limiting homers in the past, and an overblown 17.4% HR:FB ratio is sure to come down. But the command issues are a little more concerning. K:BB stabilizes fairly quickly, so if Martinez is selling out for Ks after just 8.02 per 9 IP last season, walks could be the side effect. But at this point in the season, that's still just speculation, and while the Brewers could still punish him for mistakes, Busch Stadium is typically pretty forgiving toward pitchers. Meanwhile, the Brewers are second in the league in K% vs. RHP, so if Martinez can avoid free passes and long balls, he should have a chance to rack up some points.

Alex Wood FD 7600 DK 7900
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @LAD
FD - 30.07 DK - 19.64

For SP2 purposes -- and maybe for tourneys on FanDuel -- we think you could do a lot worse than Alex Wood at these prices. He was stellar last time out, holding these same Giants to one hit over six innings, but the projection system doesn't put much weight on recent performance. It's more motivated by Wood's track record over the long haul, which is better than you might think. Over his career, he's fanned a respectable 8.17 per 9 IP with a 3.48 xFIP. Since last season, those numbers are even better (9.6, 3.36). He's been used mostly as a swing guy for the Dodgers, but this will be his fourth start of the season and third since filling Rich Hill's rotation spot, so the hope is that he'll be good and stretched out and ready to work a little deeper. We'd like that kind of assurance, but at these prices, it's really almost gravy. The Giants have been one of the worst offenses in the league this season and hold a paltry .265 wOBA vs. LHP.

Catcher

Willson Contreras FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.4 DK - 6.35

What you're going to have to ask yourself here is how much faith do you put in advanced stats, because the surface numbers are going to tell you to steer clear of Jeremy Hellickson right now. After last year's solid comeback season, he's 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in 2017, but it doesn't take much digging to see those numbers are built on a pretty flimsy foundation. Let's start with the HR:FB. Hellickson's a fly-ball pitcher, so the fact that only 4.4% are leaving the yard in his first five starts is obviously great. What's not so great is the fact that nobody maintains that kind of number for long. The league average -- which virtually everybody regresses to sooner or later -- is about 10-11%. Then there's the BABIP, which is ridiculously low at .196. BABIP's can be tricky, because everybody establishes their own norms to some extent and fly-ball guys tend to be lower, but again, sub-.200 just isn't something that happens. Hellickson's career average is .271, so major regression is on deck there, too. His strand rate is also dumb at 86%, which is doubly confounding, considering that he's only got 11 Ks in 30 IP (3.3 per 9). This ain't gonna last, folks. Hellickson might not be as terrible as his 5.28 xFIP suggests, but even if he's slightly better than he's been over the course of his career (4.30 xFIP), he's not somebody we need to hide from. Contreras is a nice hitting catcher (especially against a low-K guy) and if the wind's blowing out again Tuesday, we'll be happy to bet that Hellickson's return to normalcy kicks off tonight. Even if it's not, the odds are in your favor betting against Hellickson when the price is right.

Derek Norris FD 2100 DK 2700
Opponent - MIA (Volquez) Park - @MIA
FD - 6.99 DK - 5.5

Punting at catcher is rarely a terrible idea, and that's what we've got here, because prices don't get much more punty than this. Norris is just a dude, and not an especially talented one, relatively speaking. For a catcher, he's got a little pop, but honestly there's not a lot more we can say about him. But hey, he's cheap and he's facing Edinson Volquez, and sometimes (often) that's enough. Volquez has never been intimidating, and as he's climbed into his 30s, his numbers have tanked. Since the start of last year, he's got a 4.57 xFIP thanks to below average Ks and nearly 4 BBs/9.

First Base

Hanley Ramirez FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.18

Baltimore's Alec Asher spun 6-plus solid innings against the Blue Jays a couple of weeks ago in his only start of 2017. I'm sure there are things the projection system cares less about, but I can't think of any right now. The fact is -- unless things changed dramatically over the last six months -- Asher is a marginal MLB talent. He was a non-prospect throughout his time in the minors, and through 65 big league innings he's done nothing but make the scouts look exceedingly prescient while running up a 5.37 xFIP. Of course, it's true that Hanley hasn't been anything special through the first month of 2017, either, and now that he's well into his 30s, decline is gonna happen. There's even a non-zero chance that he's done being a major contributor, but if there's anything left in the tank -- and last year suggests there is -- he'll be in a great spot to showcase it tonight.

Mike Napoli FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - HOU (Fiers) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.54 DK - 6.21

Speaking of decline ... Mike Napoli, folks. Yeah, he's looked pretty bad so far this year, but if you like your evidence served in small samples, consider Monday's 2-for-4 effort with a homer a sign that he's turning it around. Of course, the truth is that we shouldn't put too much stock in either. Napoli's always been prone to strikeouts in massive numbers, and with that profile, slumps are going to come. But while Napoli's given us plenty to worry about, we don't think he's done. There have been shifts in his batted ball profile, but not enough to explain a 120-point drop in BABIP or an 8% drop in HR/FB ratio. And truth is, even if he's a shell of the guy who hit 34 bombs with a .226 ISO last season, that's fine when you consider the price/pitcher/park trifecta he's got tonight.

Second Base

Dustin Pedroia FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.95

Pedey's lost some allure since getting bumped down to the sixth spot in the order -- enough to where his price on DK might be a little too steep -- but we think he's still a bankable asset against the likes of Asher on FanDuel. Really the only thing missing for Pedroia so far in 2017 is the power numbers, and while that was never really why we liked him in the first place, it'd be nice if they came back -- and the underlying numbers say they should. His hard-hit rate is actually way up (42%) and his GB/FB ratio is virtually unchanged from last season when he popped 15 HRs and managed a respectable .449 slugging. Meanwhile, he's got an equal number of Ks and BBs, so not much has changed other than the run-scoring opportunities that come with hitting at the top of the order. That hurts, but he should be in for some RBI chances to help make up for it tonight.

Brian Dozier FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Gray) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.27 DK - 7.81

Or, you could (literally) swing for the fences with Dozier, and if you're looking for upside over safety, he's probably your play. His power has also been largely absent in 2017, but he's atoned (to some degree) by swiping five bags. The lack of homers is coming from the fact that unlike growing numbers of MLB regulars, he's not elevating the ball right now. Because while his hard hit rate is the same as we saw last year, and his soft contact rate is actually down, he's hitting far more grounders than we're used to seeing from him. There's no telling when he'll get than turned around, but track record (60 HRs in 2015-16) suggests he will.

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Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Asher) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.87

Bogaerts has been the beneficiary of the Boston lineup shuffle, and he's up to his old high-BABIP tricks again. It's sitting at .373 right now, and while it'll probably be coming down, don't expect it to slide all the way back to the league-average of .300. For more than two years now, non-believers have been waiting on the regression, but like we mentioned earlier, everybody's got their own norm for BABIP, and an abnormally high one is looking more and more like a skill, rather than luck, for Bogaerts. Since 2015, his is .354, so we can reasonably expect something in that range. All that to say, the .325 batting average and .381 OBP are more or less real. What we're waiting on with Bogaerts -- as with many of his teammates -- is the power to re-emerge. But we really don't need homers from him tonight, at least not at FD's price. What we're looking for is multiple times on base and a couple of runs and we've got what we paid for, if not more.

Aledmys Diaz FD 2900 DK 4100
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @STL
FD - 9.36 DK - 7.13

Don't worry frequent readers. We weren't gonna let Wily Peralta slide through unnoticed. Peralta's a frequent whipping boy for the projection system, and after a couple of decent starts to open the season, we've seen why lately. His HRs and walks allowed continue to trend in the wrong direction, and after getting shelled in his last two outings -- including six runs in 4 IP against the Cards -- he's sporting a 5.19 ERA and 4.91 xFIP in 2017. That's the Wily Peralta we've come to know love picking on. Diaz has gotten off to a slow start, but we see little reason to worry. He's still an excellent contact hitter with enough pop and speed to give him a nice ceiling. The low batting average looks like it's largely a product of bad BABIP luck (.203 vs. .312 last year), and some selling out for power (10% increase in fly ball percentage).

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.67 DK - 8.69

We already told you what we think about Hellickson, so we'll spare you the sequel. As for Bryant, he remains elite. Despite just four HRs in the April, he put up a .289/.391/.515 triple slash, so the production is there. He's also totally comfortable vs. RHP, with a career .374 wOBA and .219 ISO in the split. The fact that Hellickson is a fly-ball guy due for regression is just bonus.

Jedd Gyorko FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Peralta) Park - @STL
FD - 9.13 DK - 6.7

If you've been waiting for more DK value plays, here's your guy. At 28 years old, Gyorko appears to have come into his own as a power hitter with excellent numbers against RHP. Not including Monday's two bombs, he's posted a .303 ISO (!) in the split and is well on his way to proving that last year's 30 HRs in 438 PAs were actually the realization of the potential that he flashed as a rookie back in 2013. He's also comandeered he cleanup spot for the Cardinals, and that's a good place to be when Peralta is taking the hill.

Consider: Anthony Rendon

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.89 DK - 8.68

After missing most of the 2016 regular season, Schwarber hasn't yet regained the power stroke he showed with 16 HRs in 69 games when he broke into the bigs in 2015, but it'd be a pretty big leap to subscribe to the belief that the skill has deserted him. Meanwhile, he's still getting on base at a nice clip, which is plenty valuable hitting at the top of the Cubs' order. Of course, strikeouts are still an issue and probably always will be, but that's why we like taking him against a guy like Hellickson, who struggles to miss bats.

Matt Holliday FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.59

It's still too early in the year to say that Holliday spent the offseason trying to re-invent himself as a patience/power guy, but the evidence is mounting -- and it would make since, given his new home park, which dampens batting average for righties, but boosts HRs. He's always been a nice contact hitter who would work counts, but he's swinging less than ever this year and when he does, he's missing much more often. The power numbers haven't fully manifested themselves yet, but his .231 ISO is higher than any full season he's had in a decade, dating back to his Colorado days. He's also second in MLB in BB%, which greatly decreases the chances you'll be taking a goose egg when you roster him. That's especially true against Mat Latos, who is bad. Since last year, he's got a 5.53 xFIP, thanks to one of the lowest K rates (5.2/9) and highest walk rates (4.1/9) in baseball.

Curtis Granderson FD 2300 DK 3700
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.87 DK - 6.6

Ok. This one's pure punt. The projection system hasn't given up on Grandy, because he posted a .238 ISO vs. RHP last year, and he's got a .356 wOBA vs. RHP since 2015, and the 2017 BABIP is absurdly low and sure to come around at some point. But yikes. He's been awful, and a lot of that .154 BABIP is his own fault (it's hard to find a hole when you're popping it up on the infield in 22% of PAs). But the price is right, and R.A. Dickey should give him some chances. He only strikes out about 6 per 9 IP, and he's giving up 1.5 HRs/9 since the start of last season. Also, it's too early to make definitive statements about Sun Trust Park, but the early returns are telling us it might play well for left-handed power, so there's that. But really, this one's all about the salary relief.

Consider: Brett Gardner

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