Baseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/1/17
Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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Pitchers
Michael Wacha FD 8000 DK 7200
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @STL
FD - 31.98 DK - 21.11
We've got an interesting pitching slate tonight, because the most enticing tournament options (Kershaw, McCullers, Severino) are the same guys we're targeting for cash games. Beyond those, you're taking on a lot of risk in any format, but if you're OK with that, you'll probably want to consider Wacha. We're only a month into the season, but we're already reasonably sure what we're getting out of the Milwaukee lineup -- all or nothing. Against RHP, they lead the league in ISO, but they're also well below average in wRC+ and just 11th in wOBA while posting the second highest K% (26.2) in baseball. Could they rock Wacha? Sure. But it's perhaps equally likely that he keeps them in check and rolls up a few strikeouts en route to a quality start (4/4 in that category on the year) and a win (-147 favorite). Don't get us wrong, Wacha's no ace, but in the early stages of 2017, he looks much more like the guy who went 17-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 2015 than the guy with a 5.09 ERA last year. He's striking out better than 8 per 9, and he's done an excellent job of limiting hard contact. Sure the sample size is small and the Brewers are a dangerous lineup, but we're less afraid of them outside of a hitter-friendly park, and the price is right on Wacha if you're looking for somebody to pair with Kershaw or want to squeeze in some expensive bats.
Jason Vargas FD 8700 DK 7400
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @KC
FD - 34.32 DK - 22.52
Ugh. Gotta be honest here, I'm not sold on Vargas. But I also can't see paying up for Cueto against a Dodgers lineup that mashes (and doesn't whiff) against righties, and all those Mets lefties make me too nervous to roster Julio Teheran, and I couldn't bring myself to write up a fly-ball guy like Vincent Velasquez with the wind blowing out in Wrigley, and Robert Gsellman and Amir Garrett have thin track records and got blown up last time out (and Garrett's in the Great American Small Park and so is Gerritt Cole), and Marco Estrada's fly ball tendencies worry me against a white-hot Yankees lineup that's been one of the best in baseball vs. RHP this season, and so on and so on. In comparison to all of the preceding, the White Sox nice numbers against lefties this season don't seem so bad. I'm still not quite sure what to make of Vargas, though. He appears to re-invented himself in his mid-30s and has been pretty good this year (last start against the White Sox not withstanding). Dating back to last season, he's striking out better than a batter per inning with a 2.98 xFIP and an increase in ground balls. If that change is real, great. But we're talking about a sample size of seven games here, compared to 200 career starts with 6 Ks/9 and a 4.48 xFIP, so I'm skeptical. But our options beyond the obvious guys are limited, so I could see taking a couple of flyers, especially on DK.
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3 Visitor Comments
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@Brent – Not sure what you are getting at with the Rogers Centre reference, but the Blue Jays are at NY tonight. Sill, Estrada is a little scary to roster either way against the Yankees.
Argh. My bad. Read the schedule backward, but you’re right, point stands. Thanks for the catch.
No problem and thanks for the info.