Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 5/1/17

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NBA Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NBA Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

 

Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw FD 12600 DK 13900
Opponent - SF (Cueto) Park - @LAD
FD - 46.35 DK - 30.63

Ah, you gotta love when Clayton Kershaw is on the hill. He's by far the best pitcher in baseball and gets a match-up here that he has always dominated in. He faced these Giants just a week ago, going 7 innings, striking out 7 and getting the win. This Giants lineup is a really great one for Kershaw, as it relies on lefties for production. Kershaw has sported a .137 wOBA dating back to 2016 and strikes them out an 11.51 /9 clip. The likes of Brandon Belt, Joe Panik, etc. are all in a very bad spot. That's not to say the righties are in some kind of good spot. They're still facing a guy who allowed a .227 wOBA to righties in 2016, the best in the majors. Dodgers Stadium is a solid piptchers ballpark and Kershaw has pitched better there over his entire career. His price is high, though it has come down a little bit since his last start. He remains an elite cash game option and the top point projected play of the day. Without any expensive offenses I need to pay up for, Kershaw will be a mainstay in my cash lineup.

Luis Severino FD 8500 DK 8000
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @NYY
FD - 34.64 DK - 22.71

Luis Severino is a very good pitcher. While he has shown flashes of his upside, he hasn't been able to piece it all together. In 2015 and '16, he sported a 2.5 BB/9. He also just got hit a little bit. His fastball was down in velocity and he wasn't throwing his change-up as much. So far this season, you can throw that out of the window. While he may not be as good as his box scores may suggest, this is a pitcher with 12K upside every time he takes the mound. He has taken the cutter out of his arsenal and has held batters under a .100 wOBA with both his change-up and slider. He faces off with the Blue Jays tonight, who exaggerate all aspects of Severino. They strikeout a lot and have the power to hurt. However, that may not be entirely true anymore. With Donaldson and Tulowitzki out, Bautista and Morales are the only guys with much power. Looking past them, the Jays have a lot of weak bats that strike out a lot against righties. Severino is a bit riskier than McCullers, but he's also priced a lot lower (on DK). With these other guys being so expensive on DraftKings, I'm just fine with Severino in cash if you pair with Kershaw.

Lance McCullers FD 9000 DK 10700
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 34.68 DK - 22.82

In terms of strengths and weaknesses, McCullers is a pretty similar pitcher to Severino. When dominant, he's locating his fastball and putting batters away with his curveball. When struggling, his curveball won't have its natural movement and his fastball won't hit the corners. He also throws only 3 pitches. He throws his curveball over 60% of the time, followed by the fastball (30%) and change-up(10%). His curveball, however, is not just 1 pitch. Against righties, it's more of a slider at times and a 12-6 at others. Against lefties, it's more of the same. He either throws it inside like a slider or flashes it low in the zone as a 12-6. He has undoubtedly one of the best curves in baseball and it single-handedly makes him a fun watch. The Astros will be facing off with the Texas Rangers tonight. The Rangers are an offense we really don't know yet. Joey Gallo has the upside to hit 2 HR but could very easily strikeout 3 times against McCullers. We then have the lefties in Mazara and Odor. If McCullers is able to work around those two, he should be in for plenty of production. With that being said, this is a decent offense and they won't be one that will fall over. However, if McCullers has his "stuff" working, they won't have an option. He's an elite play in tournaments and is interesting in cash where priced down.

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.4

Starting us off at the plate, we're going to take a look at Brian McCann. McCann certainly isn't the hitter he was 2 years ago, let alone the guy in Atlanta. However, he still has plenty of power and he's at a position that lacks much of anything. The Astros are the top offense on this slate and it's never a bad idea to look towards that when a position is ugly. The Astros should have McCann slotted in there at 5 or 6, where some guys should be on-base in front of him. We will touch on Andrew Cashner plenty later, but just know that he's not good. He's also on the road in a ballpark that encourages runs. McCann is fairly priced around the industry and I see no reason to stay away. Even at the age of 33, McCann has posted a .335 wOBA to righties over the past 2 seasons. He has the HR upside and should be pretty safe in this particular match-up.

Salvador Perez FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @KC
FD - 8.25 DK - 6.12

We like Perez for the same reason we like McCann. He's a key piece in one of the top offenses of the night. Dylan Covey has given up 11 earned runs over his first 3 starts and now travels to Kauffman Stadium to face off with the Royals. Sal Perez has been one of the only productive Royals this year and his HR numbers have been unreal. While the crazy power production will likely not continue, Perez does sit right in the middle of the order and gets a ton of RBI opportunities. Before a disappointing 2016 season, Perez always hit righties better than lefties. He still hit 11 homers against them last year and hit the ball hard 34% of the time. He's the same exact price as McCann and should be about half as owned. In tournaments, I'm fine with the pivot. There may be 4 other Astros I like and Perez is in just as good of a spot. Perez is fine in all formats.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3800 DK 4100
Opponent - DET (Norris) Park - @DET
FD - 10.43 DK - 7.48

Daniel Norris is a bit tough to figure. As a guy who is a big prospect, he's been a bit underwhelming. While good against opposing lefties, he allowed a .341 wOBA and 8 homers in just 51 innings against righties. He has been much worse this year, though the sample size is nowhere near enough. Through just 20 innings, he's held a combined .380 wOBA and a 44.6% hard contact rate. Encarnacion is a guy that matches up extremely well. Dating back to the start of the 2016 season, he's posted a .385 wOBA against lefties and backed it up with a 40% hard contact rate. He's priced down quite a bit around the industry and on a day with Kershaw on the mound, you can't go crazy with bats. Encarnacion is the perfect combo of upside and price and comes in as the top option at first base. This entire Indians offense is interesting. They are a very good lineup and can put together a huge game at any point. Once Norris leaves the game, the Tigers bullpen doesn't improve much. They have the 4th lowest wOBA in the majors and have allowed the 2nd most homers. Encarnacion is a strong option in both cash games and tournaments.

Eric Hosmer FD 2800 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @KC
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.05
Brandon Moss FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @KC
FD - 8.66 DK - 6.22

On DraftKings, I would rather pay up for Encarnacion On FanDuel, it's a different story. These guys are $2.8k and $2.7k in a great match-up. Hosmer is the safer of the two, as a guy who does his best to put the bat on the ball and make solid contact. Moss, on the other hand, is swinging for the fences every time. When he makes contact, he pays off in tournaments. He's been a bit slow to start the season and you can expect some more homers as the season progresses. Dylan Covey has been underwhelming through the minors and his first few starts have been no different. He has struck out just 4 batters per 9 innings and has allowed a putrid 26% line drive rate. He has never impressed in the minor leagues and is now being forced to take the mound every 5 games against MLB teams. He is obviously not ready for the majors and it's shown in his production. The Royals have been cold to start the season, but they have to be considered one of the top options of the slate in terms of stacks. Hosmer is a strong cash game option on FanDuel if rostering Kershaw. He is plenty cheap and has the safety combined with upside necessary at first. Moss is an elite tournament play that will be very low-owned.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.06 DK - 8.52

Man, I really haven't been able to roster Altuve as much as I would like to so far. The 'Stros haven't found themselves in many good spots and Altuve is always very expensive. Let's hope this match-up with Andrew Cashner is a sign of things to come, as it's a pretty great one. Cashner has posted a .351 wOBA against righties over the last 2 seasons and has held a .571 so far this season. Altuve, while better against lefties, still has more upside against righties. He destroyed righties for a .395 wOBA in 2016 and also stole 91% of his bases against them. He also hit much better at home, where the Crawford Boxes give him a fun target. He did hit for a lot of power last year and while that may not be sustainable, the ballpark helps a lot. Cashner is going to be a guy we pick on plenty here and Altuve is the heart of it all. If you're stacking the Astros, make sure you have Altuve in there. He's the top option at 2B and a guy I will have an absolute ton of.

Neil Walker FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.18 DK - 6.11

When Julio Teheran takes the mound, you know what you're going to get. He is great against righties and bad against lefties. He's sported a .354 wOBA against lefties since 2015 and has already struggled to start the season, despite efforts of adding a more effective change-up. Neil Walker is a guy who has flown under the radar for the most part this season, but does have a lot of upside against righties. As a switch-hitter, Walker certainly prefers hitting from the left side. In 2016, he sported a .330 wOBA and hit 15 homers against righties, matching his career best. While we don't have nearly enough of a sample to know how SunTrust will play, they made it for Freddie Freeman. The park has played exceptionally well for lefty power and we will start taking that into account. Altuve is the clear cash game option for me, but I think Walker makes a lot of sense on DK where you may need to save some funds. The Mets are priced down against Teheran and I don't mind targeting the lefties.

Josh Harrison FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - CIN (Garrett) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.78 DK - 7.16

Josh Harrison and Jordy mercer have a really nice thing going against lefties, sitting in the 1 and 2 hole. Due to Harrison getting injured every season, we haven't realized his talent against lefties. He;s held a .360 wOBA against southpaws since 2015 and has also stole 12 bags. The Pirates find themselves on the road in a very friendly ballpark. Amir Garrett is a solid youngster and not a guy we will look to target a ton this year. However, he's in Great American Ballpark against a lineup that has some lefty mashers. Garrett has held a .240 BABIP along with a BB rate lower than his number in the minors. He will struggle a bit more as the season progresses and this seems like a perfect spot for just that. Harrison is too expensive on DraftKings and I doubt I end up with any exposure. I would much rather have Walker for $600 cheaper. On FD, however, they are the same price and I will definitely get some tournaments exposure. With Altuve at the top, I don't see a reason to have Harrison in any of your cash game lineups.

Fire up No Half Time for baseball season, and get a $25 bonus code when you use promo code DFSR25MLB!

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.01

While we have a healthy amount of games on the slate, there aren't too many offenses that stand out. The Astros are one of the few and you're going to see plenty of them here. Correa is finally back to full health and has been hitting the ball around the field pretty nicely. Correa ended up sporting a .360 wOBA against righties in 2016 and hit 15 of his 20 homers against them. Cashner has been bad this season and he's still getting lucky. When his BABIP finally regresses, we will see some negative performances. Traveling to Houston and facing this lineup in Minute Maid could call a disaster. Correa will be hitting behind Altuve and Springer, so the opportunity to drive in some runs is almost a guarantee at some point. His price is a lot lower on FanDuel and there's no way I'm going elsewhere in cash games. On DraftKings, there is definitely an argument to be made. Correa will be highly owned and we do have Clayton Kershaw on the slate. If you need to pay down, we have you covered.

Jordy Mercer FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent - CIN (Garrett) Park - @CIN
FD - 7.35 DK - 5.55

Jordy Mercer against a lefty is something we always target. He's a known lefty masher and has been for a long time. Just last season, Mercer held a .357 wOBA against lefties that was backed up by a solid set of peripherals. He also puts up those numbers playing half of his games in PNC Park, which is right up there for the worst ballpark in baseball for righties. Great American is nearly the opposite, ranking 3rd for righty power since 2015. Garrett has struggled to locate his fastball and Mercer is a cheap bat that can take advantage in 1 pitch. He also has what I consider "safety" out of a platoon guy. He won't be pinch hit for as he is a defensive piece as well. You can lock in 4 at-bats with the possibility of 5 from the 2 hole. On a slate without many offenses in great spots, I'm more than willing to target Jordy mercer against an average lefty in a +++ ballpark. On DraftKings where Correa is $4800, I may end up paying down in my cash games to Mercer at just $3.3k.

Third Base

Maikel Franco FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - CHC (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.14 DK - 6.01

Franco is a very good hitter and we need to take notice before his price skyrockets. He mashes lefties and is just now entering his prime.  In 2016, he held a .357 wOBA that was backed up by a 36% hard contact rate and a 23% line drive rate. The opposing pitcher, Bret Anderson, hasn't pitched a full season since 2015. In 2015, he sported a .320 wOBA against righties and allowed 17 homers in just 120 innings. His velocity has decreased this season and has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to lefties so far. Third base is a spot without too much appeal at the top-end and I'm not sure you need to force the spend with Kershaw on the hill. Wrigley Field is a neutral park that's weighted heavily by the wind. Keep an eye out for the weather as it can play a huge impact on the implied team run totals. Franco is a solid cash game option and has more than enough upside for tournaments. Make sure you have some exposure to Franco at a depressed price tag.

Mike Moustakas FD 3500 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @KC
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.07

The Royals have been pretty inconsistent to start the season, which has confused many. Mike Moustakas is one of the only guys who has been seeing the ball well since opening day and he always has against righties. Dating back to 2015, he has sported a .363 wOBA at home against right-handers. Dylan Covey, as mentioned, is a very weak arm. He held very underwhelming numbers over his entire minor league career and hasn't improved at all just yet. I don't think this guy has much of a career in the majors and this Royals team should be able to get to him. Moustakas has been hitting lead-off against righties and has a very good chance of seeing 5 at-bats. He may not have the same HR-upside as Franco, though it's definitely there to a degree. he's way too cheap on DraftKings and a guy I like in all formats over there. All in all, Moustakas is a guy who will be in a lot of my lineups. He's too cheap and finds himself at a position that doesn't offer up much on the night.

Consider Alex Bregman if he finds himself in the top half of the batting order.

Outfield

George Springer FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.34
Josh Reddick FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.6

You guessed it, some more Astros! Both Springer and Redick have swung the bat well this season and the upside is limitless with both of them. TO start, these guys are just way too cheap on FanDuel, like a lot of these Astros. With Clayton Kershaw anchoring my cash games, I'm going to have a hard time avoiding these Astros in my cash games. They let you fit in Kershaw and also have as much if not more upside than anyone on the slate. On DraftKings, they correctly priced these guys. They are still in play but don't offer the extreme value that FD does. Cashner, who is bad against everyone, held a .381 wOBA against lefties and a .341 wOBA against righties. Both Redick and Springer have held .370+ wOBA's against right-handers and both hit for a ton of power. Springer is a bit safer as the stolen base upside is there and he will have a higher % chance of seeing an extra at-bat. On FanDuel, you can always fade these guys in tournaments. They should be very highly owned and we all know anything can happen in baseball.

Andrew McCutchen FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - CIN (Garrett) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.74

Andre McCutchen against a lefty is something we have known for years. After a downfall over the last 2 years, we might be seeing the old Andrew McCutchen vs lefties. He's sported a .467 wOBA to start the season and while that's far from sustainable, he is hitting the ball hard and hitting them in the right place. He sees a gigantic ballpark bump from PNC to GAB, where the ball flies. We've touched on Amir Garrett plenty and there's not much else to dive into. He's a super young lefty with a lot of talent and a lot of emotions. If on his game, this entire Pirates team can be shut down. He has crazy "stuff" and that 1/10 time he's on, watch out. On the regular, he's going to nibble the corners against righties and find himself down in the count vs good hitters. McCutchen seems to go under-owned every day and should be around 10-15% tonight. He still has plenty of upside here and will be hitting behind Mercer and Harrison, who are both very good against lefties as well and should be able to get on-base a time or two. You can target McCutchen in both cash games and tournaments.

Ender Inciarte FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - NYM (Gsellman) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.17 DK - 6.91

Ender Inciarte has been one of my favorite players for a long time now and he's finally getting the opportunity he deserves. SunTrust Park has been friendly to Inciarte and we have to start believing the numbers for left-handed power. In 2015 (last full season), Inciarte sported a 359 combined wOBA with a 23% line drive rate. Robert Gsellman has been utterly disappointing this season and this Braves team profiles to get to him. The weird part is his .270 wOBA against lefties, after he was much worse against them in the minors. We should expect those numbers to even out, as he doesn;t have a + change-up and his best pitch is a slider. He also struggles to hold runners and there's not a single catcher on the Mets roster that is super strong on defense. Inciarte is a bit priced up after producing this year but isn't at all expensive. He makes sense in all formats and is a guy who should fly under the radar. He has plenty of upside and could be gotten at 5%.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!

 

GET OUR FREE EBOOK ON DAILY FANTASY MLB and NBA BY CLICKING HERE!

You'll also get our picks in your inbox every day!