Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/29/17

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Pitcher

Early

Stephen Strasburg FD 10600 DK 11600
Opponent - NYM (Wheeler) Park - @WSH
FD - 40.24 DK - 26.37
There are a couple of different ways to go for pitching on the early slate, but when all is said and done in cash games, I'm going to splurge for the safety that is Stephen Strasburg. Four starts into the season and Stras just gets better each time out, adding more K's while walking less. The Mets, while already having 5 runs on the board against Mad Max as I write this are 1-9 in their last ten games going in to Friday night. They have a team wOBA of .289, only the Giants are worst in the National League, that number drops to a league worst .275 against right handed pitchers. Strasburg meanwhile is striking out 20.4% of the batters he faces, while only walking 3.7% and his 0.93 WHIP is among the lowest in the league. Stras is a lock for 7 innings, 8 K's with 10-12 upside while keeping the runs limited. If he walks away with the W that's just icing on the GPP cake making Strasburg an excellent play across the board.

Main

Brandon McCarthy FD 8000 DK 8900
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @LAD
FD - 32.58 DK - 21.21
On the main slate the pitching options aren't as elite. Big spending is something I'll hold more for GPP's and in cash I'll look for the cheap and easy way out to build up on the bats since we have a lot of good hitters facing bad pitching. Brandon McCarthy should serve our purposes just fine. McCarthy takes the mound today against the Phillies in Chavez Ravine. The Phillies have won 8 of their last ten heading in to this weekend series with the Dodgers, but don't let that fool you. While sporting a .321 team wOBA the Phillies are still striking out at a 23.1% clip which should benefit a guy like McCarthy, who's striking out a respectable 8.25 K/9. The Phillies are also a different team outside of Citizens Bank Park. While on the road this season their team wOBA drops all the way down to .291 with thier k% climbing to 26.5% with only 9 of their 22 home runs coming away from home. McCarthy will come in with a 3-0 record through 4 starts. I'd expect him to be good for 6 innnings and at least 6K's. If he can keep his base runners in check and maintain his 2.25 ERA he could pay off handsomely.

Catcher

Early

Victor Martinez FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @DET
FD - 9.32 DK - 6.88
VMart has had a rough go of things to start this season, but Brad Ausmus continues to throw him in that cleanup spot, which when rostering a position like catcher, that additional implied at bat is something to always take in to consideration. Martinez has shown signs of life recently, a three hit game Sunday against the Twins, followed by a double and a run the next game against the Mariners, so there are signs that things may be starting to click. Look for him to step in to the box right handed against Derek Holland who has a 303.5 wOBA which jumps to .332 against righties. If you're going with Stras on the early slate, you need cheap bats to make the difference, and Martinez provides just that particularly on FanDuel.

Main

Yasmani Grandal FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @LAD
FD - 8.67 DK - 6.23
Continuing with the theme of value catchers batting up in the order, we have Yasmani Grandal on the main slate. The Dodgers will go against Right hander Zach Eflin tonight. Eflin is making his third start tonight after being called up earlier this month to take Clay Bucholz's spot in the rotation. The young gun has yet to garner a win despite allowing a single run in each of his first two starts. Last season in his big league debut, Eflin went 3-5 in 11 starts allowing 1.71 HR/9 with a 5.36 xFIP. Grandal comes in to this weekend series having reached base safely in 3 straight games, and 9 of his last 10.

First Base

Early

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - SEA (Gallardo) Park - @CLE
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.11
Edwin Encarnacion isn't getting the Cleveland chapter to his career off to a great start, but things do seem to be trending upward for him. 3 of his 4 home runs this season have come in the past 9 games, in that same stretch he's driven in 9 runs, and reached base safely in all but one of those. Today he'll face the Mariners Yovanni Gallardo. The Seattle right hander is 1-2 through 4 starts so far this season, he's only striking out just over 6 batters per 9, and has a .334 wOBA. EE receive bonus points for batting clean up on a team forecasted for 5.2 runs today which is the highest on the day.

Main

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - COL (Anderson) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.46 DK - 9.61
Paul Goldschmidt murders lefties. That's all you need to know. Want to know more? Okay. Paul Goldschmidt murders baseballs regardless of who is throwing them. Goldschmidt went 8 for 11 with 2 walks in the three games he played of the Diamondbacks four game series with the Padres this week. 3 extra base hits, 6 RBI, 5 runs scored, 2 swipes. He' currently sporting a .434 wOBA, a .465 OBP which is top 5 in baseball, and his 1.19 BB/K ratio is third in the national league. This is why we opt for value at the pitcher spot on the main slate right here. He'll face Tyler Anderson of the Rockies and his .400 wOBA against righties.

Second Base

Early

Ian Kinsler FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @DET
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.45
Kinsler walked and scored a run last night against the WhiteSox, which was a refreshing change from his 0-8 stretch in the final 2 games of the series against the Mariners. Prior to that dip in production he was riding a nice little stretch including a 2-5 with 2 RBI and 4 runs scored in the first game of the Seattle series. He'll look to build on last night's performance today against Derek Holland. The southpaw is coming in to today's game with a .332 wOBA against right handed bats, to go along with a .438 SLG and .321 OPS. Kinsler's a leadoff hitter in a Detroit lineup projected for 4.8 runs today, and reasonably priced, particularly on FanDuel.

Main

Jonathan Villar FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Undecided) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.22 DK - 8.38
Jonathan Villar is a much better hitter than his numbers show. He got off to a slow start this season, but is quickly turning things around hitting 12-40 with 7 runs and 6 RBI over his last 9 games. His 14 RBI this season is pretty impressive for a leadoff hitter, and is not far off from Eric Thames and Ryan Braun. If he can put together a few more multi hit games, he'll have his .258 wOBA and .262 OBP up in no time, and he'll look to do just that tonight against Atlanta.

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Shortstop

Early

Aledmys Diaz FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @STL
FD - 9.75 DK - 7.43
Unless you pair Strasburg with a cheap second pitcher on DraftKings, skip on down to the next play, but on FanDuel, look no further than Aledmys. The system loves him on both sites, and you will definitely need the savings on FD. Diaz played the first game of the Cars double header with the Jays on Thursday, and went 1-6 finishing the series 2-15. Today he'll go up against the ghost of Bronson Arroyo with the Cardinals hosting the Reds. Arroyo is 2-2 through his first 4 starts back in Cincinnati allowing 2.57 HR/9 and a .452 wOBA against right handed hitters. The St Louis batters could go off on him and Diaz will be witting right in the top of the order to get it started.

Addison Russell FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.02 DK - 6.71
Interleague play brings the Cubbies into Fenway! Today the Cubs face Steven Wright and his AL worst .525 wOBA against right handed batters. Through 4 starts this season Wright has only pitched 17.2 innings, allowing 3.57 HR/9, a .400 BABIP, and a 2.09 WHIP. While Russell didn't reach base in the final game of the Cubs series in Pittsburgh, he finished the series 5-14 with 4 runs an RBI and a double. The system prefers Diaz from a pt/$ perspective, but if you need the savings on DraftKings, or just have the extra salary on FanDuel, you can do worse than Russell.

Main

Corey Seager FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.29
Corey Seager continues to impress, most recenly going yard in back to back games against the Giants in AT&T Park. That puts him at 5 home runs through the first 23 games to start his second full season in the bigs, and puts him well on pace to eclipse the 26 he hit last year. Seager comes in to the weekend series with Philly reaching base safely multiple times in 4 of his last 5 games played with 5 walks, 7 hits, three for extra bases, and 4 runs scored in that span. Today he faces Zach Eflin who finished last season with a .388 wOBA against left handed batters and allowed nearly 2 more HR/9 to the left side of the plate than the right. Seager has hit 22 of his 35 home runs at home, and 26 off of right handed pitching.

Third Base

Early

Kris Bryant FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.84 DK - 8.81
Bryant may be more of a GPP play, but if you can fit him and Strasburg comfortably on the early slate, then cheers to you my friend.
It could be possible, and if so, I fully encourage it. Bryant has been on a tear lately. Over his last 5 games leading up to the weekend, he's gone 9-19 with 5 walks an d 6 runs scored. Last night he homered off of Drew Pomeranz and today he faces Steven Wright. I touched on how bad Wright's season has been going above on Addison Russells write up, so again I say, it will not be easy, but if you can work Kris Bryant in to your lineup then absolutely do so.

Main

Mike Moustakas FD 3300 DK 3100
Opponent - MIN (Hughes) Park - @KC
FD - 9.45 DK - 6.96
On the main slate, value at the hot corner is a little easier to come by. It all starts with Mike Moustakas. Moose is making up for time lost after a season ending injury took him off the field last May. In the early going this season, he's rocking a .383 wOBA and 7 home runs in 80 plate appearances. He hits high in the Royals batting order, and will be stepping in to the box against Phil Hughes who despite his 3-0 record has been very generous with the base runners and runs scored early on this season.

Alex Bregman FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Triggs) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.05 DK - 6.87
On DraftKings, Moustakas will be my play, on FanDuel, there is a strong case to be made for Alex Bregman. The system loves Bregman as one of the top pt/$ plays at third today. Bregman impressed in 49 games last season with a .339 wOBA, .478 slg, and .313 OBP in 49 games played. At nearly half that amount this season, he's sitting at .328, .434,.328. I'd love to see him hitting higher in the order, and for that reason I won't look his way on DK, but in a good matchup with Triggs, I'll consider Bregman on FD if I need that $300 from Moustakas to spend elsewhere.

Outfield

Early

Kyle Schwarber FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - BOS (Wright) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.06 DK - 8.81
Value baby! Kyle Schwarber's 2017 isn't off to a flashy start, he's hitting .213 through 21 games, but he's also sporting a .324 wOBA with 3 home runs, and will be hitting leadoff as the DH while the Cubs spend the weekend in an AL ballpark for the first time since the World Series. Schwarber went 1-5 last night against Drew Pomeranz, today however he will be facing Steven Wright on the hill. So, once again, we have a lead off hitter, going against a bad pitcher, on a team projected for 5 runs. Value baby!

Matt Holliday FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.25
The Yankees are hosting the Orioles this weekend, and the series started with a marathon 14-11 10 inning win for New York. Matt Holliday played his part in the offensive onslaught, going 3-5 with a walk, double, home run, 3 RBI, and 3 runs scored. Today the O's send Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill. Jimenez just isn't a good pitcher, carrying a 5.95 ERA and 5.55 xFIP into today's start. The Yankees rocked him in his '17 debut, drawing 8 base runners and 5 earned runs before driving him out of the game in the fourth inning. Through four starts, he's only made it out of the fourth inning once. Look for the Yankees to send Baltimore to the pen early in this one, after using 5 relievers last night.

Main

Carlos Beltran FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - OAK (Triggs) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.79 DK - 6.45
Josh Reddick FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - OAK (Triggs) Park - @HOU
FD - 9.56 DK - 7.31
The Athletics are in Houston this weekend. Tonight the Astros send Andrew Triggs to the hill. Reddick and Beltran will attack him from the left side of the plate, where he finished last season with a .324 wOBA, a 3.47 xFIP, and a 29.3 hard hit percentage. The system is viewing these two almost identically from a pts/$ perspective given their prices and spots in the batting order. Reddick is heading in to the weekend series reaching base safely in 4 straight games, with three of those being multi hit games. Beltran meanwhile has struggled a bit as of late, but still has a career .364 wOBA hitting left handed against righties with a 33.8% hard hit rate. If I had to choose one I'd go with Reddick, but if you need the savings on FanDuel, Beltran is definitely in the conversation, dependent on his spot in the order.

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