Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/28/17

Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.

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Pitchers

Robbie Ray FD 8800 DK 8200
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @ARI
FD - 31.49 DK - 21.02

We've got a nice assortment of top-tier arms on tonight's 15-gamer, so if you want to pay up, you've got options. But other than Scherzer, our top cash game play, most aren't exactly in ideal situations. So, as is often the case, Robbie Ray is the first place we're turning for tourneys. The upside here is obvious. Since the beginning of last season, nobody on this slate -- not even Scherzer -- can match Ray's 11.27 Ks/9. Meanwhile, the Rockies are vulnerable against southpaws, especially away from Coors. Dating back to last season, they've got the eighth-highest K% vs. LHP and the sixth-lowest wRC+. Of course, if upside is all there was, we'd be paying a lot more for Ray tonight, so the risk must be acknowledged. He walks nearly 4 guys per 9 IP, which drives up the pitch count and shortens his outings, thereby lowering the ceiling -- sometimes significantly. Also, Chase Field may not be Coors, but it's not that far off when it comes to overall park factors. But taking on some risk is a necessary part of building winning GPP lineups, so we think the reward Ray offers when he's on his game makes his a worthy gamble.

Charlie Morton FD 6300 DK 6900
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 29.26 DK - 19.31

Speaking of risk... Charlie Morton. I'll wait for the laughter to subside. Ok, first things first: Charlie Morton has never been a good MLB pitcher. I mean, he's been decent enough to hang around the league for a decade, which is saying something, but a 4.00 xFIP and 6.39 Ks/9 aren't kind of career numbers we're looking for out of our tournament guys. That said, we think there's quite a bit of upside here -- at least for the price -- so if you've got some high-priced bats you really want to roster, Morton's low cost will make that much easier. But while bang-for-buck is really what's driving this pick, Morton's recent numbers are worth diving into, because they're actually not bad. His Ks have been consistently trending up ever since 2012 (4.47 Ks/9) up to a totally respectable 8.9 Ks/9 in his last eight starts dating back to last season. What changed? Well, he started using a cutter last year, so that's probably part of it, but it's the spike in velocity that has our interest piqued. He's a career 91 mph guy, but through four starts this season he's averaging 95+ on his fastball. That's super weird for a 33-year-old dude with over 900 big-league innings under his belt, and I can't explain it, but like I said, interest is piqued. Also, the 2017 FIP is running a full run below the ERA, so we'd expect some positive regression sometime soon. It may not start tonight, but going against a pretty unimposing Oakland lineup, it wouldn't be surprising if it did.

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