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You're probably gonna be seeing the Diamondbacks an awful lot in this space -- specifically every time they face a lefty in Chase Field or another similarly great hitter's park. Their numbers against southpaws actually aren't very good this season, but that should be changing soon. They rank second in MLB in wOBA vs. LHP since the beginning of 2016 and they've got too many bona fide lefty killers to remain below average in the split for long. Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas have posted .431 and .428 wOBA vs. lefties dating back to last season, A.J. Pollock owns a career .365 wOBA and .220 ISO in the split, and Chris Owings has a .353 wOBA and a surprisingly decent .178 ISO while hitting with the platoon advantage since 2016. They're getting rookie Kyle Freeland tonight, and while he's been decent in his first four MLB starts, he's walking too many, he's never been a high-strikeout guy, and his groundball rate so far in the majors far exceeds what he did in the minors. All told, he's a soft matchup, and the Diamondbacks should be able to take advantage of him tonight. Also worth noting: the Rockies' bullpen is depleted after working 12 innings in the last three days. That can't hurt.
We actually prefer the Indians vs. RHP, but we like most anybody against Ariel Miranda. The 28-year-old lefty has a 5.26 FIP in 78 big-league IP with dramatic HR issues (1.94 per 9 IP). Progressive Field doesn't have the reputation of some other well-known launching pads, but it's still a pretty good hitters park, ranking 10th in overall park factors over the last three years. Meanwhile, the Indians are a patient bunch who don't strike out much, and they've got more than enough pop to pile up numbers -- especially with the addition of Edwin Encarnacion (career .232 ISO, .363 wOBA vs. LHP) in the middle of the order. The new cleanup hitter hasn't done much yet in 2017, but we're not worried. He started slow last year too, and still went on to hit 42 bombs with a .266 ISO and .373 wOBA after notching just three HRs with .146/.299 marks in April.
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We'd feel a lot better about this with Miggy (not to mention J.D. Martinez) in the lineup, but the temptation to load up against Mike Pelfrey is a strong one. His career strikeout rate is one of the worst in baseball (5.05 Ks/9), and while he got by for years by limiting hard contact and home runs, that skill is beginning to desert him. Last year, the hard hit rate was over 30% for the first time since his rookie season, and while that number alone isn't eye-popping, when you give up as much contact as Pelfrey, that equates to an awful of lasers flying around park. Since the beginning of 2016, it's led to a .381 wOBA allowed vs. lefties and .369 vs. righties, so splits aren't a big concern for Detroit's bats. As a team, they've got the fourth-best wOBA vs. RHP in baseball since last season, and Nick Castellanos (.369 wOBA), Ian Kinsler (.340) and Justin Upton (.339 wOBA, .232 ISO) have all done nice work vs. righties. On FanDuel, where you can play him at catcher, Victor Martinez is also clearly in play, and so is bargain-priced No. 2 hitter Tyler Collins.
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