Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/28/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11600 DK 12700
Opponent - NYM (deGrom) Park - @WSH
FD - 43.43 DK - 28.63

Today we are going to start right at the top with Max Scherzer and his elite arm. After posting a 20 win season in 2016, he looks even better to start the 2017 campaign. Through four starts, he has a record of 3-1 and in the one loss he allowed just one earned run and struck out 10 batters in six innings but had zero offensive support. He shouldn't have to worry about the offense tonight as the Nats bats are coming in red hot having scored double digits in three straight games in Colorado. He is also posting an elite K rate over 10 for the sixth straight year and his 3.38 xFIP is also on par with his career numbers. The most impressive thing I noticed when diving into his stats was that he is allowing just under 50% fewer home runs per nine innings this year with a career-low 6.5% HR/FB rate. If you are not yet sold on Scherzer he also ranks 3rd in the league right now with an elite 15.9% Swing Strike Rate. He is safe in all formats.
Marcus Stroman FD 9100 DK 9100
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TOR
FD - 31.98 DK - 21.06

After Scherzer, things get a bit tricky tonight. From a PTS/$ perspective, I like Stroman who is pitching at home and the Jays currently sit as -150 favorites. The only issue I see with Stroman is that he goes about getting batters out with extreme movement on his pitches which help create an elite ground ball rate(57.8%) but gives him very little K upside as he sits with a below average 5.59 K/9 rate through four starts. The good news is that he doesn't walk anyone(1.55 BB/9) and doesn't give up the long ball(5.9% HR/FB rate). He is coming off a fantastic start on the road vs. the Angels where he picked up the complete game with five strikeouts and just one walk. He will go up against a Rays team he beat in his first start of the season, striking out five batters in 6.1 innings. They Rays can hit right-handed pitching(8th in wRC+) but provide a boost for Stroman's low K upside as they have a 25.4% K rate vs. righties. Even if the ceiling isn't sky high, Stroman provides a very safe floor, especially on FanDuel where they award points for quality starts.

Lance Lynn FD 8000 DK 7800
Opponent - CIN (Undecided) Park - @STL
FD - 29.99 DK - 19.75

Dipping down into the value range on both sites tonight, we find Lance Lynn who is on of our highest projected PTS/$ options. The Cards open as -150 favorites at home in St. Louis where Busch Stadium is ranked as one of the best pitchers parks in the bigs year after year. Outside of one bad start in Washington where he gave up four earned runs, he has been very impressive this season. He has now won two straight starts vs. the Pirates and Brewers in which he only gave up one earned runs and just six hits in 13 combined innings with 12 punchouts. He now gets to face a Reds team that ranks 17th in wRC+(95) vs. right-handed pitching. Looking at the season long splits, the Reds only K 19% vs. righties but looking at the last seven days they have been much worse striking out 27% of the time, overall. It may not be a perfect situation for Lynn but he does give you a floor with some upside at a great price that allows you to get Scherzer in your lineups on DraftKings or all the bats on FanDuel.

Catcher

Buster Posey FD 3700 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SF
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.26

The Giants offense as a whole has been disappointing to start the year ranking 25th in runs scored but that hasn't slowed Buster Posey. His hitting streak came to and end last night but he did pick up two walks and sits with a cool .400 wOBA on the season with an elite 154 wRC+. He is another great spot on Friday facing the Padres and Luis Perdomo at his home park in San Francisco. Perdomo has been hit hard to start the year giving up 11 hits, eight earned runs in just 10.1 innings pitched. He is relying more on his slider this season(10% more) and until he finds his control, he will make a great pitcher to target and Posey is most definitely the top option for the Giants right now.

Jett Bandy FD 3000 DK 2800
Opponent - ATL (Colon) Park - @MIL
FD - 6.63 DK - 5.04

If you are planning on saving some salary at the catcher position, Bandy makes a great choice. He is having an even more impressive start than Posey with hits in 10 of his 12 starts this season with four home runs and an excellent 26% line drive rate. His .460 wOBA and 185 wRC+ are obviously due for some regression but a value price and recent movement up the batting order, he makes a great play in all formats vs. soon to be 44-year-old Bartolo Colon.

First Base

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4500 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.96

Looking at the high-end players tonight, Goldy makes the best PTS/$ play due to his slight discount to the Trout, Rizzo, and Harper show on both sites. He enters Friday night's action with hits in seven straight games including four doubles, two home runs, two stolen bases and 12 runs batted in. The Diamondbacks play in a terrific hitters park and now own the best home record in the National League and sit #1 overall in runs scored in the entire major leagues. He now faces a pitcher Freeland who is not missing bats(6.5% swing strike rate) and is currently walking over four batters per nine innings. He is my top high priced player to build around tonight.

Freddie Freeman FD 4300 DK 4800
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.39

If you are looking to separate a little in tournaments and looking for a low owned option with big upside, Freddie Freeman is your man. He is red hot to start the year in the Braves new park that is practically designed for his left-handed power. While he won't be at home tonight, Milwaukee has been known to be just as good or better for power hitters over the years. The only knock on Freeman is the supporting cast around him as outside of him, there really isn't much and it shows as they Braves rank in the bottom five in runs scored on the season. Much like Posey's situation, Freeman hasn't let it affect his own play as he has a sky high 232 wRC+ and .527 wOBA coming into tonight with seven home runs and 17 RBI. His pitching opponent Chase Anderson has been great to start the year with a 1.13 ERA but his 3.77 xFIP and 31% hard contact rate suggest he is due for regression.

Eric Hosmer FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @KC
FD - 9.15 DK - 6.85

While Hosmer really stands out as an elite PTS/$ play on FanDuel, he is in play on both sites facing a struggling pitcher tonight. Kyle Gibson has given up 17 earned runs in just 17 innings pitched(9.00 ERA) and his 4.96 xFIP suggests things won't be getting better anytime soon.  Hosmer hasn't had a great start to the season either but gets a boost as he primarily hits out of the three and four hole for the Royals. The good news for Hosmer is that he has hits in 15 of his 21 games played and is striking out over 4% less than his career average. He should also be extremely low owned and a great GPP play.

Second Base

Ian Kinsler FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.1

Moving on to second base, I am going to start by picking on another bad pitcher. Mike Pelfrey made his first start of the year and for his new team last Saturday and it didn't go very well. He lasted just 4.1 innings throwing 81 pitches and struck out just one batter. Kinsler comes in hitless in his last two games but gets a big boost hitting in the leadoff spot for the Tigers and has an above average .353 wOBA and 129 wRC+ to start the year. With superstar Miguel Cabrera on the disabled list, the team will turn to its other veterans to step up and keep up the pace as the Tigers rank inside the top 10 in overall runs scored in 2017.
Josh Harrison FD 3000 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 8.72 DK - 7.11

From a PTS/$ perspective, there aren't too many second basemen in a better spot than Harrison tonight. Since being moved to what appears to be his permanent role at the top of the order, Harrison has picked up a hit in seven of his eight starts with 10 hits including a triple and a home run and a gorgeous .425 wOBA and 169 wRC+. While the matchup looks just ok vs. lefty Adam Conley who has been decent, not great, to start the year, Harrison has always hit left-handed pitching at a much higher rate. Nothing has changed this season as he holds a .530 wOBA and 237 wRC+ against southpaws while just a .277 wOBA and 73 wRC+ vs. righties. Combine the opportunity with the excellent splits and not mention the value price and you have a safe play in all formats tonight.

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.1

He can definitely be overlooked at times but make no mistake, Corey Seager is an up and coming(maybe already) superstar in the MLB. He is coming off a huge 26 home run, 105 RBI season and it has carried over into this year. He has just four bombs through his first 22 games but is hitting a cool .317 with a scorching .395 wOBA and 151 wRC+. Hitting out of the two-hole for the Dodgers he has also contributed 13 runs and 16 RBI with two stolen bases. Don't let Zach Eflin's 2.25 ERA and strong start scare you off Seager tonight as the regression fairy should be visiting him very soon as well. His xFIP of 5.37 and unsustainable 81% strand rate point to this regression happening as soon as tonight. This game is also the second highest total(9) of the night with Dodgers sitting as big favorites. Seager is in play in all formats.

Chris Owings FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @ARI
FD - 7.16 DK - 6.01

After having success hitting near the top of the order, the Diamondbacks moved him down to the seven hole for the last two games. I mention him here as a top pick with the assumption eh will be moved back up to the top of the order tonight at home vs. a left-handed pitcher in which he has stronger splits against this season and for his career. He is also coming off a big game last night where he smashed two solo home runs in a 6-2 win.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4400 DK 5000
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.46 DK - 7.64

Considered by many as the best third basemen in the game, Nolan Arenado is an elite fantasy play on almost any day, especially when facing left-handed pitching. In 25 plate appearances vs. southpaws so far in 2017, Arenado has tallied 13 hits(.542 average) with four home runs a .719 wOBA and 339 wRC+. These even exceed video game numbers on easy mode. In 22 games he has only failed to reach base three times and while he isn't at home in Coors, he still gets an elite hitters park to do his things tonight. He is neck and neck for top overall play behind Paul Goldschmidt on the other side of the field. For tournaments, it may not hurt to do a complete game stack and build around those two elite superstars.

Mike Moustakas FD 3300 DK 3100
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @KC
FD - 9.32 DK - 6.87

For value at the position, it is all about "Moose" season. Mike Moustakas is having a very productive start to the season much like last year before a season-ending injury in late May. He has spent the majority of the season hitting out of the two-hole but has seen time in the leadoff spot over the last two games which boosts his value even slightly higher. Don't believe me? Check out the data in Doug's awesome article on the importance of batting order in DFS baseball. He is not a flashy player with a career .257 average but has shown his power with seven home runs and an elite .383 wOBA early in the season and best of all, he is right in the low $3K range on both sites.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD 5000 DK 5600
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.86

I list Trout at the top of the outfielder list as a GPP paly only tonight. He is the highest priced non-pitcher on both sites and on a slate when many will be paying up for Scherzer at pitcher, Trout will most likely be low owned with so many value options in the outfield. When it comes to the talent, there is no doubting his elite status as he looks to record his sixth straight 100 run season in the majors and contributes in all areas which give him elite fantasy upside. He comes into Friday night's action with six home runs, 14 runs, 15 RBI and five stolen bases. Getting an elite player with possible low ownership can quickly put you on the fast track to GPP success.

Kevin Pillar FD 3000 DK 3200
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.71 DK - 7.11

From the upper tier and right into the value I mentioned in the outfield tonight. It starts Superman Kevin Pillar who was recently shifted to the top of the order for the Jays and has responded in a huge way. He has picked up hits in 12 of his 13 games since moving into the leadoff role in mid-April. That includes four doubles, a triple, three home runs and seven runs scored. He has even been aggressive on the base paths, something the Jays have been missing, stealing two bags on four attempts. The biggest change I have seen from Pillar this season that has allowed this transition is the patience at the plate which has given him close to a 40 point increase in OBP compared to his career average.

Tyler Collins FD 2400 DK 2700
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @DET
FD - 7.71 DK - 5.97

Dipping down a little further, we find another elite PTS/$ value play who has seen a positive shift in his batting order spot lately. With Miguel Cabrera out of the lineup and on the disable list, Collins has seen time in the two hole behind Ian Kinsler and has put together back to back three-hit games. As long as he stays up at the top of the Tigers order he is a safe play in all formats.

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