Daily Fantasy NASCAR Race Preview - Toyota Owners 400

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Toyota Owners 400

Richmond International Raceway - Richmond, VA
Track - .75 Mile Short Track
14° of Banking in the Corners

We start out the week with some BIG breaking news. Dale Earnhardt Jr. announced on Tuesday that he will be retiring from the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series following the 2017 season.  While he has yet to win a Championship at the sports highest level, Earnhardt had a very impressive career that includes 26 wins...so far. He won at least one race in each of his first seven seasons including a career-high six wins in 2004. More than any of the wins or stats, Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the sports most popular driver and one hell of an ambassador. He may be done racing but you can count on Dale Jr. being around the race track for a very long time. I tweeted yesterday that I think he wins both Talladega races this season in his final season. It was #HotTakeTuesday but I don't think it is actually that far of a stretch to think he could win multiple times in the final 28 races of the season. It is going to be a fun ride.

With the big news out of the way, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series rolls on to Richmond International Raceway for more short track racing. While it is in the same category(Short Track) as Bristol and Martinsville, it is far from the same configuration. While Bristol is a half-mile with heavy banking and Martinsville is a half mile with minimal banking, Richmond comes in at three quarters of a mile and is also flat with 14 degrees of banking.

From a fantasy perspective, Richmond has been a dominator track as the laps led leader has led at least 140 laps in each of the last eight races here. The top two in laps led have also fared well with one of them winning each of the last five races and each having finished inside the Top 5 in six of the eight races. Another trend I noticed after adding each of the las four years full results was that at least five drivers starting inside the Top 10 have finished there over the last five races and seven or more in three of those races. Qualifying will be very important this week. The top two in laps led has started inside the Top six in each of the last eight races.

Top 5 Track History at Richmond (2 Year)

Kyle Busch missed the spring race in 2015 due to injury but has dominated Richmond over the last two years despite not winning a race. He finished 9th here last fall but 2nd both races before that for an impressive 4.3 average finish. Right behind him is the legend himself, Jimmie Johnson who is coming off two straight wins and now comes back to Richmond where he has two Top 5's and three Top 10's in the last four races. Joey Logano and Kevin Harvick sit tied with Jimmie with a 6.5 average finish. The field starts to separate after that as no other driver has multiple Top 5 finishes in the last two years. Two drivers you don't see on the list are Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch who have dominated the laps led over the last two years with 357 and 349 respectively.

Top 5 Track History at Richmond (Career)

Looking even deeper at the Track History we see that not much changed at the top as Kyle Busch leads the way with four career wins and is the only driver with a career average finish below 10. It will most likely be another situation where we must decide between Kyle and his elite history/likely practice dominance and his high ownership/high variance. Teammate Denny Hamlin isn't far behind Busch with a 10.1 career average finish including three wins and 1,594 laps led(most among active drivers). Kevin Harvick has also been very successful here in his career with three wins, 11 Top 5's and 20 Top 10 finishes in 32 races for a 10.5 average finish.

Top 5 Short Track Track History (2 Year)

When it comes to short tracks, Jimmie Johnson has been the man over the last two years with two wins and six Top 5 finishes in 14 races and is the only driver with an average finish below 10. Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano each have one win and six Top 5's apiece and have led over 1,400 laps combined on short tracks. Kyle Busch has led all drivers on short tracks over the past two years with 1,164 laps led but sits one spot outside the Top 5 in average finish(13.3).

Top 5 Current Form (Last 6 Races)

Just to show how close things are right now, Brad Keselowski was the leader in the current form rankings last week and one bad race bumps him outside the Top 5. None other than points leader Kyle Larson back to the top with his sixth Top 10 finish of the season last week at Bristol, one of his worst tracks. One of the other young guns, Chase Elliot, sits second in current form and in the points standings after his fourth straight and sixth Top 10 finish of the season. Surprising to some, but most likely not to many, Clint Bowyer after a year of transition is having a huge rebound season for Stewart-Haas racing. He was runner-up to Jimmie Johnson last week(his best finish of season) and as already surpassed his season total of three top 10's last year through eight races.

Early Week Picks 

Jimmie Johnson ($9,900) - It sure seems like I am chasing points and you are 100% right. I mean how can you not with the 7-time champion who was written off by many early in the season but has now won two straight races and remains under $10K on DraftKings. He has also moved up to sixth overall in average DraftKings points per race(51.6) after his second straight win and race with 95+ fantasy points. Oh ya, he also ranks second in average finish(6.5) over the last two years and first in short track history(9.6 average finish) over the last two years.

Joey Logano ($10,100) - I am sure you are all shocked I didn't take Kyle Busch here but hey I can't be a homer every week. On a side note, make sure to roster Busch as I didn't mention him here. Logano sits #1 in my early model before qualifying and practice which gives him the spot over my favorite driver(it hurts more than you know). He is the only driver in the field to finish each of the last four races here inside the Top 10 and is tied with the second-best average finish(6.5).

Aric Almirola ($6,200) - Before seeing qualifying and practice, Almirola stands out as an excellent low-end value play this week. He has only qualified inside the Top 20 twice over the last eight races but has tallied seven Top 20 finishes with three Top 10's. It is going to come down to qualifying as it always does with the low-end options but definitely keep your eye on Almirola.

For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well. 

If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.