Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/27/17

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Pitcher

Early

Noah Syndergaard FD 11500 DK 12700
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @NYM
FD - 40.67 DK - 26.68

I wrote yesterday about Syndergaard against the Braves, before he was scratched. Here's that with a few slate-specific adjustments. Thor gave up 3 early runs to the Phillies last time out but regained his composure and ended up going 7 innings and striking out 10. This match-up with the Braves is actually quite similar. They are known to have lower than average K rates and are both teams that focus on making contact. With that being said, they don't see Noah Syndergaard every day. He is extremely special and can strikeout the best of them. Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte are really the only 2 lefties to worry about as Freeman has great pop and Inciarte can be a menace on the bases (Syndergaard is horrible at holding runners). Outside of those two, this lineup is filled with guys like Brandon Phillips, Tyler Flowers, and Dansby Swanson. Syndergaard is a clear number 1 option and I will likely end up with 100% exposure in cash games. This Braves team has struck out at a 5.7% higher clip so far in 2017 than they did in 2016. While the sample is surely too small to conclude anything, it makes sense. They added Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, and Swanson, who all hold 22%+ K rates against righties. Syndergaard is expensive and you will have to sacrifice elsewhere. Luckily, there is some strong value on this early slate.

Carlos Martinez FD 9200 DK 8900 
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 35.51 DK - 23.32

Like Syndergaard, Carlos Martinez was supposed to pitch yesterday. The game got postponed early and Martinez had his start moved back to tonight. Carlos Martinez has been a bit inconsistent to start the season, but it's expected/. He's always been a bit up and down and one thing that we haven't seen in the past is the stable strikeouts. In the past, he would struggle due to not having his putout pitch. Even in the start against the Brewers last week, Martinez was able to strikeout 7 in just 5 innings. Martinez has seen a slight increase in BB/9 and a slight increase in his K/9 every single season and this year has been no different. He faces off with the Toronto Blue Jays at home in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. if you've been playing MLB DFS, you know all too well how the Blue Jays are doing. With Josh Donaldson on the DL and Batista striking out every AB, they've fallen into a rut. We've been picking on them for a while now and we'll keep it up here. They struck out the 5th most in baseball against righties and hold the league's 2nd worst wOBA. While they will turn it around at some point, I find it hard to believe it will be against a dominant right-hander in a pitcher park.Martinez is a bit cheaper than Syndergaard and does save you a nice chunk of change that you can spend on hitting. With that being said, I still like Syndergaard in cash games. The match-up and talent are just too good. On DraftKings where you have to roster 2 pitchers, I will likely be going these 2 and forcing myself to find value elsewhere.The weather is once again looking iffy in St. Louis. With a doubleheader looming on the schedule, make sure you pay attention to twitter.

Late

Chris Sale FD 11300 DK 12900
Opponent - NYY (Tanaka) Park - @BOS
FD - 38.82 DK - 25.58

Ugh, this late slate is absolutely atrocious at pitching. Truthfully, Chris Sale isn't in the best possible match-up. The Yankees aren't bad and Fenway Park is a tough place to pitch for lefties. With that being said, this is Chris Sale. He's one of the absolute best pitchers in the league and nobody can hit him when he's on. Dating back to 2016, he's sported a combined .wOBA of .273 backed up by a 2.55 xFIP and 27% hard contact rate. The Yankees do have 2 lefties and they are the 2 guys who can mix things up on the base paths. With them being basically taken out of the game, the Yankees will rely on the righties to put together some runs. Judge, Carter, and Castro all strikeout a ton and I would put their over/under at 2 ( maybe 3 for Carter), though they are the guys who can do the most damage.  I do expect one or two Yankees to connect, but I don't see them stringing together runs and having anyone on-base on any type of consistent basis. Look for Sale to limit the damage and last at least 7 or 8 innings. On a slate without pitching, I don't see a scenario where I'll be fading Sale.

Ricky Nolasco FD 7100 DK 8300
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @LAA
FD - 29.87 DK - 19.65

If you need to pay down, Ricky Nolasco is fine. He's not great, but nobody is on this slate, so it doesn't really matter. The Athletics are an inept offense and have struggled to do anything against right-handed pitching. Nolasco wasn't horrible in 2016, finishing with a .307 wOBA against L and a .326 vs R. Angels Stadium is extremely spacious and at night, it ranks as one of the best pitching environments in baseball. He's pitched alright to start the season, totaling over 20 FanDuel points in every start. I don't see the Athletics beating up Nolasco and at just $7100, you only need 20 or 25 fantasy points. With that being said, there is no insanely expensive offense to pay up for on the late slate. On FanDuel, I recommend just taking Sale. On DraftKings, it's more of a discussion. I expect many to pay up in 2 spots, which will limit your bats to an extent. If you go with Sale and Nolasco, you should be able to stack Chase Field and have plenty of upside at both pitcher and hitters. Nolasco is obviously more of a tournament play, though all rules go out the window when we have a slate like this.

Catcher

Early

Yadier Molina FD 2900 DK 3400
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 7.9 DK - 6.07

Molina is another guy I mentioned yesterday and while he's not an elite play, it's kind of the same situation. There isn't much at catcher on this early slate and Molina is pretty safe. I can't sit here and tell you Yadier Molina is a good hitter. He's a pretty bad hitter, actually. Fortunately, Mike Matheny and the Cards still throw him in the middle of the order. The Cardinals have the honor of facing Mat Latos, who is probably the worst pitcher on this early slate. He has sported insanely bad numbers against both lefties and righties for 3 years now and has shown only signs of decline. The Cardinals offense is one of our favorites on the day and Molina should get involved. At a position that lacks everything desired, that's all you can ask for.

Victor Martinez FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - SEA (Iwakuma) Park - @DET
FD - 9.27 DK - 6.84

Yep, V-Mart is still a catcher on FanDuel. This is when we love it most. We have no solid catching options on this early slate, which is very troubling on DraftKings. Martinez is just $2900 on FanDuel and personally a cash game lock. He's somewhat struggled to start the year but I don't care. He's hitting the ball well over the last week and there's no predicting whether the hot bat continues or the cold one comes back. I'm just going to trust the numbers. He's put up nice numbers against righties, sporting a .362 wOBA since 2015. Hisashi Iwakuma was once a guy who was supposed to emerge as a star. Instead, we've seen the opposite. His fastball has dropped 3 MPH and he's not the same high K, low hard contact guy he was in 2015. Martinez is going to make solid contact here and I anticipate having some men on-base. This Tigers lineup is potent and they'll be looking to bounce back after being dominated by James Paxton last night.

Late

Chris Herrmann FD 2200 DK 3300
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @ARI
FD - 4.15 DK - 3.18

This name may not do much for you, unless you played MLB DFS last year. He was really good against righties for his price and would always emerge as a quality option on the cheap end. He ended up sporting a .338 wOBA against righties and held a 48.9% hard contact rate. We are going to talk about Jered Weaver a lot later on and I won't go crazy here. He's not a good pitcher and the regression monster is looming. In Chase Field, the Diamondbacks need to have a good game. The Padres also have a weak bullpen and this D-Backs team should be able to continue having success. Remember, when you stack a team, you need them to hit the bullpen and the starter. Getting 5 runs off of the start is fine but it won't get you anywhere near a tournament win. Herrmann is cheap around the industry and makes for a terrific play at catcher on this late slate. If you're looking to go elsewhere, I don't mind Austin Hedges for the HR upside.

First Base

Early

Matt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.25

At a position that is typically stacked, it's not the case on this early slate. We only have a few decent options and Matt Carpenter is far above the rest, at least personally. Latos is the pitcher I want to target most on this slate and Carpenter is the best hitter in the Cards lineup. He's sported a .380+ wOBA since 2014 and is one of the purest lefties in the game. The power has been there against righties dating back to last season and the OBP didn't take a hit. Latos, who is a guy we will target some more, as he's posted putrid peripherals to backup the .360+ combined wOBA. Busch Stadium isn't the greatest park but Carpenter has actually been better there over his career. We will talk about Carpenter later, who is in play later in the night as well. If you're looking to go elsewhere at !B on the early slate, I like Adam Lind and Justin Bour for tournaments.

Late

Paul Goldschmidt FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.68 DK - 9.77

I'm going to throw a chair across the room if Jered Weaver has a good game. He currently holds a 4.64 xFIP while sporting an absolutely baffling .165 BABIP. Everything hit is finding a glove and that's going to change because it's a stabilizing stat that is not controlled by a pitcher, to a degree.  Chase Field is a homer haven and the 2nd best park in the league for hitting. While we tend to roster Goldy against lefties, he's still an elite hitter against righties. In 2016, he posted a .362 wOBA and hit 16 homers against them. This Diamondbacks team is certainly my favorite offense on this late slate and you always want to get the best bat on your team stack. I'm not going to say Goldy is a lock here but I'd say he's a pretty close thing to it. Weaver isn't going to keep up this production and the people who are buying the decency will be the same ones targeting him next week after he gives up 7 runs in 2 innings one of these games. Goldschmidt is certainly the top option in both cash games and tournaments, though the price reflects that. If you need to pay down, we have a solid option in Matt Carpenter.

Matt Carpenter FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Lawrence) Park - @STL
FD - 9.95 DK - 7.25

It's kind of weird to write about a guy twice in the same article. We talked about his .380 wOBA against righties and how great of a hitter he is. In the early slate, he will face off with Mat Latos. We know what we have with him. He's easy to hit and doesn't miss many bats. On the late slate, the story is a bit different. Casey Lawrence is a sinkerballer who strikes out nobody and attacks the strike zone. He's a 29-year-old who is making his 2nd MLB appearance. In the minors, he wasn't very impressive, striking out only 6 batters per 9 and allowing a high LOB rate and low HR/FB. Carpenter is too good of a hitter for this guy and if he tries to get over early on Carpenter, he will make him pay. In 2016, Carpenter held a 7.6 wSI (sinker runs above average). Busch Stadium is a decent ballpark for Carpenter, who has raked there for 4 years now. He may not have the same upside as Paul Goldschmidt but the price is much lower and the ownership should match. I will give a word of caution and say to make sure you check the lineup. Carpenter was recently on the DL and I wouldn't be surprised to see him held out of 1 of these games.

Second Base

Early

Dee Gordon FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @PHI
FD - 7.57 DK - 7.32

With Syndergaard being such a clear and expensive option, we can't pay up at every spot. We will touch on Daniel Murphy and he is a great play. However, he's $4.4k on FD and 5.3 on DK. Dee Gordon is a bit cheaper and has a pretty nice match-up against Jeremy Hellickson in Citizens Bank Park. Hellickson, who struggles against lefties, is not good at all at holding runners. Gordon already has 2 SB on Hellickson in just 3 hits. Gordon, who held the highest average in baseball 2 years ago, had an absolutely horrible 2016 season. One of his best friends in Jose Fernandez tragically died and that was only after returning from a PED ban. Dee Gordon is a really good hitter and possibly the best baserunner in baseball. Jeremy Hellickson may not be as bad as he used to be, but he still isn't great against righties and the SB issue hasn't gone away. Gordon is my top option in cash games and has more than enough upside.

Daniel Murphy FD 4400 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Senzatela) Park - @COL
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.2

I could put these guys at every position on the early slate. This is Coors Field and the best offensive environment in baseball, by far. The game currently holds an 11 over/under and the Nats have an implied team total of 5.70, which is easily the highest on the board. Daniel murphy has been destroying the ball in Coors and gets another match-up with a righty. Murphy was the best hitter in baseball against righties last year and ended up sporting a .419 wOBA. While Senzatela came int the year as a bit of an unknown, he's proven himself to be a quality young starter. While I don't think I will target him too often this season, this Washington Nationals lineup is lethal. They are all smacking the ball around the park and murphy is almost guaranteed to come up with ducks on the pond more than once. He is definitely expensive, but the upside isn't matched anywhere at the position and the ownership may not be crazy because of the price.

Late

Ryan Schimpf FD 2600 DK 4100
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.5 DK - 6.08

FanDuel has lost their mind and priced Ryan Schimpf at $2600 against a righty. No, this game isn't at Petco Park. He's priced this low while on the road in the 2nd best hitters park in baseball, Chase Field. Schimpf has marked righties since entering the league, sporting a .377 wOBA with a lot of power (17 HR in 220 at-bats). Taijuan Walker is a guy we targeted with the Dodgers in his last start and it worked out well. Corey Seager hit an early HR and the stack was on its way to victory. This Padres team isn't nearly as potent, but there are a few danger spots, with Schimpf being the biggest for righties. He is definitely my favorite 2B on FanDuel and I just don't see myself getting away from him in cash games at just $2600. On DraftKings, it's more of a discussion and a guy I would only look at in tourneys. Walker has sported a .340 true wOBA against lefties and doesn't have nearly the reverse splits people think. Schimpf is just too cheap on FanDuel and on this late slate, I don't see myself going elsewhere.

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Shortstop

Early

Trevor Story FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @COL
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.66

Trevor Stoy against a lefty at Coors Field is something you must give attention to. While Gio Gonzalez is a quality pitcher, the Rockies are projected to put up 5.30 runs and we have to respect that. I think the Rockies go way too low owned on this slate and become elite tournament option. Gio Gonzalez has been known to have atrocious starts in Nationals Park. If you take that start and move it to Coors Field, it could be a mess. Trevor Story held an insane 55% hard contact rate against lefties last year in Coors and held a .409 wOBA. His price came down from the previous 2 nights on both sites and I'm much more comfortable playing him now. He does strikeout a lot but when he makes contact, it's going far. If Gio falls behind in the count, look for Story to jump on a fastball and send it out. There is also a degree os positional scarcity here. Outside of Story, I had trouble picking the 2nd guy to look at.

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @NYM
FD - 7.5 DK - 5.67

Shortstop is very bad on this late slate. When I'm writing up guys because of BvP, you know things are insanely thin. Personally, I don't use BvP as a huge asset in my outlook, except against knuckleballers. Cabrera has hit 2 homers and 4 total XBH in just 16 at-bats. Cabrera is also better against righties and should see a solid spot in the lineup. R.A. Dickey is as average as they get and I have no problem betting on the bad knuckler showing up. If it does, this Mets stack could have a huge night. Cabrera has a lot of pop for his size and the upside is definitely there at a friendly price. While I definitely do prefer Story, Cabrera is a fine savings option with plenty of things on his side.

Late

Aledmys Diaz FD 3000 DK 4000
Opponent - TOR (Lawrence) Park - @STL
FD - 9.61 DK - 7.32

This is basically your only option. Sure, you can take a shot with Bogaerts against Tanaka but I'm alright. Bogarts is much better against lefties and I will not target right-handers against a splitter-heavy, 5 pitch righty in Tanaka. Aledmys Diaz and the Cardinals face-off with the aforementioned Casey Lawrence. Lawrence, a 29-year-old right-handed rookie who is a minor league journeyman, should struggle here against the 4th most patient team in baseball. Diaz will force Lawrence to throw the ball over the plate and he doesn't have anything to trick major leaguers, posting just a 6 K/9 in AA. Diaz posted a .391 wOBA against righties in his rookie season and looks to be a guy that will sport reverse splits for the foreseeable future. Diaz is the only SS I will have exposure to in cash games. Chris Owings in the other guy I have GPP interest in if he's in the 2 hole.

Third Base

Early

Nick Castellanos FD 3500 DK 3400
Opponent - SEA (Iwakuma) Park - @DET
FD - 8.21 DK - 6.1

Nick Castellanos is no normal righty. In  2016, he was horrible (.275 wOBA) against lefties and absolutely destroyed (.378 wOBA) righties. He hits the ball extremely hard at 36% and does a good job to pull the ball consistently for power. Iwakuma was actually worse against righties in 2016, holding a .333 wOBA and allowing 17 homers in 100 innings. He has looked to use his sinker and slider more often this year and it really hasn't worked. Without a changeup, he has trouble getting guys to bite early from the right side. His 2 fastballs (4-seam and sinker) have held a combined 4.4% SwStr rate, which is absolutely atrocious. If you can guarantee me contact by Nick Castellanos, I love my chances. He's the strongest option in cash games on this early slate and has plenty of upside for tournaments. If you want to go elsewhere, Nolan Arenado is always a solid option against a lefty at home.

Late

Jake Lamb FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.47 DK - 7.76

I'm very excited for this match-up. Very. Jake Lamb demolishes rightie sin Chase Field and there is no pitcher I would rather have him face. Jered Weaver throws an 83 MPH on a good day and his off-speed pitches have also fallen off this season in terms of movement and control. In 2016, Weaver allowed a .365 wOBA and 15 homers in less than 80 innings, with 40 of them in the spacious Angels Stadium. The Diamondbacks have the highest implied team total on this late slate and they will be highly owned. Lamb is my favorite Diamondbacks bat on the board and in cash games, he will be in every lineup. He assumes to hit 2nd or 4th, where he will either drive in Goldschmidt or be driven in by him. hile I'm talking up these Diamondbacks bats like there a sure thing, we know this is baseball. If you want to differ from e and go elsewhere in a tournament, there is a solid alternative. Let's take a look.

Yangervis Solarte FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.68 DK - 6.47

We targeted the Dodgers against Taijuan Walker last week and it worked out well. He faces off with the Padres in the same ballpark. The padres are actually not that bad of a team against righties. Solarte in particular, sported a .350 wOBA against righties in 2016 with half of his games played at Petco Park. Chase Field is the nd best hitting environment in baseball and inflates that wOBA much higher. Walker, who many think has reverse splits, does not. He held a .200 BABIP against lefties in 2016, which curved his stats way sideways. Look for that to normalize this season and feel free to roster as many lefties as you want against Taijuan, when he pitches in Chase Field at least. Lamb is definitely my preferred option against Jered Weaver, but Solarte is cheaper and has enough upside for his ownership.

Outfield

Early

Dexter Fowler FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.51
Dexter Fowler is definitely seeing the ball well now and it looks like he's ready for take-off. Mat Latos should press that accelerate button a little bit here as he is horrible against lefties. Dating back to 2015, Latos has posted a .344 wOBA to go along with 15 home runs in just 80 innings. He attempts to keep the ball on the ground but ends up leaving the ball over the plate and getting exposed. Fowler is a switch-hitter who is better against righties, sporting a .363 wOBA and hitting 25.6% line drives. DraftKings has priced these Cardinals guys up as they have dynamic pricing. On FanDuel, Fowler is a lock and load in cash games. He will see 5 at-bats in this one and the production should flow. If you are looking to stack this team, make sure you keep an eye out for the lineup. Matheny has been switching things around lately and you may find a cheap option in a good spot. Fowler is also in play on the late slate against Casey Lawrence.

Odubel Herrera FD 3600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Volquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 7.46 DK - 6.2

We haven't touched on the Phillies at all here but they are definitely in play as a stack. Edinson Volquez is a very average righty and he does have some horrible starts on occasion. He allowed a .346 wOBA against lefties and struck out just 72 batters in over 90 innings. Odubel Herrera on the contrary, sported a .359 wOBA with a 23% line drive rate against righties. Citizens Bank Park ranked 9th last year for left-handed power and Herrera actually took advantage of that to a degree. He hit 15 homers against righties and 7 of them came at home. Herrera is a very good hitter with a ton of upside as he can steal bases as well (25 in '16). He is priced down on Draftkings and makes for a very elite cash game option. Elsewhere, I like him in all formats as well. He has a lot of upside and I don't think people will be targeting him too much with a game at Coors Field on the slate.

Late

A.J. Pollock FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.25 DK - 9.32
David Peralta FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.9

If I could roster 6 Diamondbacks on FanDuel, I absolutely would on this late slate. We've touched on Jered Weaver plenty now and there's nothing left to say. He's been horrible this season and that's with some extreme luck. Extreme. There are no reasons for this random magician act and his numbers will begin reflecting his peripherals very soon. Pollock is a guy who has pretty even splits, sporting a .369 wOBA against righties in his last full season. He also has more SB upside against a right-hander and Weaver isn't great at holding runners. Pollock is an elite cash game option and a guy I think goes under-owned compared to Peralta, Goldy, and Lamb. As for Peralta, you have to love him in this match-up. When at home against a righty, I consider David Peralta a top 20 hitter in baseball. That might sound crazy, but the numbers support it. In 2015, his last healthy season, Peralta sported a .404 wOBA against righties in Chase Field. He hit the ball hard 36% of the time and held a 20% HR/Fb rate. Both of these guys make for elite option across the board and Peralta could be the most popular play on this slate. He's pretty cheap on both sites and has a huge ceiling here.

Kole Calhoun FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.22 DK - 6.85

Kendall Graveman is the epitome of an average pitcher in 2017. He held a .325 wOBA against lefties in 100 innings against lefties and allowed 10 homers and 22 doubles. He will be going on the road into another spacious ballpark tonight in Angels Stadium.Luckily, Calhoun and has hit well there. Against righties, he's held .354 wOBA and has been an XBH machine. His price is down across the industry and he's a very solid price savings option. On DraftKings, definitely, go Peralta. On FanDuel, Calhoun is a terrific OF option if targeting Syndergaard as he gives you upside and a solid safety as well.

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