Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/26/17

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Pitcher

Noah Syndergaard FD 11500 DK 12600
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.41 DK - 27.19

While we have a few big names on the hill, this isn't a great pitching slate. The Mets and Braves rained out last night and the Mets have elected to skip Gsellman and give Syndergaard his start on normal rest. Thor gave up 3 early runs to the Phillies but regained his composure and ended up going 7 innings and striking out 10. This match-up with the Braves is actually quite similar. They are known to have lower than average K rates and are both teams that focus on making contact. With that being said, they don't see Noah Syndergaard every day. He is extremely special and can strikeout the best of them. Freddie Freeman and Ender Inciarte are really the only 2 lefties to worry about as Freeman has great pop and Inciarte can be a menace on the bases (Syndergaard is horrible at holding runners). Outside of those two, this lineup is filled with guys like Brandon Phillips, Tyler Flowers, and Dansby Swanson. Syndergaard is a clear number 1 option and I will likely end up with 100% exposure in tournaments. This Braves team has struck out at a 5.7% higher clip so far in 2017 than they did in 2016. While the sample is surely too small to conclude anything, it makes sense. They added Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, and Swanson, who all hold 22%+ K rates against righties. Syndergaard is expensive and you will have to sacrifice elsewhere. Luckily, there isn't a game in Coors and you shouldn't have trouble finding value. Syndergaard is a guy I can't recommend fading in any format. Syndergaard has been scratched. Robert Gsellman will start in his place.

Carlos Martinez FD 9200 DK 8900 
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 35.51 DK - 23.32

Carlos Martinez has been a bit inconsistent to start the season, but it's expected/. He's always been a bit up and down and one thing that we haven't seen in the past is the stable strikeouts. In the past, he would struggle due to not having his putout pitch. Even in the start against the Brewers last week, Martinez was able to strikeout 7 in just 5 innings. Martinez has seen a slight increase in BB/9 and a slight increase in his K/9 every single season and this year has been no different. He faces off with the Toronto Blue Jays at home in the pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium. if you've been playing MLB DFS, you know all too well how the Blue Jays are doing. With Josh Donaldson on the DL and Batista striking out every AB, they've fallen into a rut. We've been picking on them for a while now and we'll keep it up here. They struck out the 5th most in baseball against righties and hold the league's 2nd worst wOBA. While they will turn it around at some point, I find it hard to believe it will be against a dominant right-hander in a pitcher park.Martinez is a bit cheaper than Syndergaard and does save you a nice chunk of change that you can spend on hitting. With that being said, I still like Syndergaard in cash games. The match-up and talent are just too good. On DraftKings where you have to roster 2 pitchers, I will likely be going these 2 and forcing myself to find value elsewhere. This game has been rained out. Make sure to check out the pitcher's article for some other options.

Catcher

Buster Posey FD 3600 DK 3500
Opponent - LAD (Wood) Park - @SF
FD - 9.35 DK - 6.95

Buster Posey against a lefty, I miss this. While this might not be the worst lefty or the best ballpark, catcher is atrocious. Posey for too cheap for how good of a hitter he is and will have success here more often than not. Posey has a hit in every game since returning from the DL and hit 2 line drives against Kershaw and crew last night. In 2016, Posey sported a .381 wOBA against lefties and followed it up with a 37% hard contact rate. Alex Wood isn't a horrible pitcher and he was actually worse against lefties last season. However, in 2015, he was atrocious against righties and gave up a ton of homers. He's still a bit of a mystery and I'm not sure we can confirm anything either way. We do know Buster Posey is an elite hitter and the only one at the position. The price is fair and he won't cost you an arm and leg. Go ahead and get exposure to the best hitter at the position in a positive split.

Yadier Molina FD 2800 DK 3300
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 7.74 DK - 5.95

Look, catcher is horrible. I can't sit here and tell you Yadier Molina is a good hitter. He's a pretty bad hitter, actually. Fortunately, Mike Matheny and the Cards still throw him in the middle of the order. The Cardinals have the honor of facing Mat Latos, who is probably the worst pitcher on this slate. He has sported insanely bad numbers against both lefties and righties for 3 years now and has shown only signs of decline. The Cardinals offense is one of our favorites on the day and Molina should get involved. At a position that lacks everything desired, that's all you can ask for. Posey has far more upside and if you have the money, spend up. if you're paying up at pitcher and need a cheap alternative at catcher that holds a rather safe "floor". This is also a team you can stack and I would definitely have Molina if I'm stacking the team.

First Base

Anthony Rizzo FD 4600 DK 4800
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.04

Rizzo has been the engine behind this recent Cubs surge and even though the numbers don't look great last night, he destroyed 2 balls just foul and 1 to the wall. The Cubs see Tyler Glasnow, who will likely be a very good pitcher one day. Right now, he's far from it. He has no command of his fastball and ends up getting behind hitters. When you get behind hitters in this lineup, they make you pay. Rizzo is safe and has as much upside as anyone at the same time. He's sported a .380+ wOBA for 3 straight st\seasons against righties and will only get better. PNC Park may not be a great hitters park, but it is better for lefties with the somewhat short porch in right field. For a position that is usually stacked with power at the top and bottom of pricing, you don't have that luxury today. There isn't too much horrible pitching so we will have to settle with a couple options, albeit great ones. Rizzo is the top option at first and a guy you should pay up for if you have the funds. With that being said, he isn't my top priority. there are a few guys who would take precedent over Rizzo. All in all, he's a fantastic hitter in a good match-up, though fairly expensive.

Albert Pujols FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.06

Like I said, this isn't the fruitful position it usually is. Outsides of Rizzo, there is nobody to love at the top. working our way down in pricing, we have Albert Pujols. Pujols and the Angels face off with Sean Manaea, who is actually a pretty good young lefty. However, he's struggled against righties (.332 wOBA) in his young career. Pujols on the other hand, while old and power-reliant, still hits lefties well. In 2016, he posted a .350wOBA to go along with 10 HR's in 120 AB's. His price is too low on FanDuel and I don't mind him in any format. The Angels are projected for 4.3 runs and have one of the more concentrated offenses in baseball. Pujols and Trout are both excellent plays here and shouldn't be too highly owned at a position with plenty of HR upside. In cash games, go ahead and find a way to pay up if you can.

Second Base

Daniel Murphy FD 4200 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.25

After putting up 400 runs, Chans in Coors Field last night, these 2 teams will face off again less than 24 hours later. While we certainly can't expect another 25-run outburst, we will see some runs here. Tyler Chatwood is a decent youngster but struggles against lefties. Against lefties in Coors Chatwood has sported a .374 wOBA to match the career 34% hard contact rate. Daniel Murphy might not be the best bat in the Nationals lineup (arguably), he's a very close 2nd and doesn't get much recognition for it. This was the best hitter in the league against righties last season (.419 wOBA) and faces off with a lackluster righty in Coors Field. The Nationals as a whole are certainly in play here and will likely end up the top offense on the slate. In tournaments, there is always merit to fading. Let's take a look at a guy with great GPP upside.

Ryan Schimpf FD 2600 DK 3900
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.2 DK - 5.86

FanDuel has once again lost their mind and priced Ryan Schimpf at $2600. No, this game isn't in Petco Park. He's priced this low while on the road in the 2nd best park in the league, Chase Field. Schimpf has marked righties since entering the league, sporting a .377 wOBA with a lot of power (17 HR in 220 at-bats). Taijuan Walker is a guy we targeted with the Dodgers in his last start and it worked out well. Corey Seager hit an early HR and the stack was on its way to victory. This Padres team isn't nearly as potent, but there are a few danger spots, with Schimpf being the biggest for righties. He is definitely my favorite 2B on FanDuel and I just don't see myself getting away from him in cash games at just $2600. On DraftKings, it's more of a discussion and a guy I would only look at in tourneys. Walker has sported a .340 true wOBA against lefties and doesn't have nearly the reverse splits people think.

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Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 4500 DK 5400
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 10.89 DK - 9.51rner should absolutely be involved. With that being said, he is very expensive and this is a

Holy wow. Trea Turner ended up hitting for the cycle last night and knocking in 7 RBI's. While the sample is small and not big enough to draw any conclusions, Turne has been much better against right-handed pitching so far in his career. He has a flatter swing against righties and has turned that into a 35.9% hard contact rate. In his rookie season, Turner sported a .413 wOBA that was actually held up well by peripherals. Tyler Chatwood, who really isn't too bad, is also better against righties. He still posted a .334 wOBA against them at home and allowed over 1.3 HR/9. The Nats are projected to score in the mid 6's tonight and Trea Turner should absolutely be involved. With that being said, he is very expensive and this is a deep position. In tournaments, I love looking elsewhere for the price savings. In cash games, Turner is one of the guys I want to make sure is in my Nats stack.

Aledmys Diaz FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 9.41 DK - 7.17

With Trea Turner putting up a million fantasy points last night, I expect his ownership to be a bit high. While he is the top option on the board and a guy I will have a lot of cash game exposure to, he's fadeable in tournaments. There are a couple other options at SS with plenty of upside, one being Aledmys Diaz. Diaz has historically hit righties better (.391 wOBA in 2016) and is facing off with Mat Latos. Latos has sported a .355 wOBA against righties over the last 2 seasons and allowed a 34% hard contact rate. Latos struggled against the Angels in his first start and it'll be one of the best match-ups he will see. This Cardinals team is going to have some success here and this offense is one you should definitely get exposure to. In cash games, I don't hate paying down for Diaz. He's much cheaper than Turner and I would consider him safe.

Addison Russell FD 3000 DK 3300
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.47 DK - 6.3

Addison Russell is very cheap, especially on DraftKings at just $3300. Tyler Glasnow hasn't shown a major split advantage against either righties or lefties so far. Since his debut, he's sported a .361 wOBA against righties. He's also allowed 9 extra base hits in just 20 innings. The Cubs lineup is potent and should do plenty of damage in this spot. Addison Russell has continuously seen the 4 and 5 spot and it looks to be a permanent change. He has been a better hitter this season against righties after posting a .306 wOBA against righties in 2016. He did hit 9 homers however and he's already connected with 2 seasons. This is a guy who's going to continue producing as long as the Cubs offense gives him runners on-base. When he gets pitches to hit, Russell has a ton of power. He has a tendency to chase and against Glasnow, I'm not worried about that. There are a lot of good options at SS and I can't blame you for using any of them.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.64 DK - 7.14

Jake Lamb at home against a righty, sign me up. In this exact spot, Lamb posted a .390 wOBA and hit an HR every 13 at-bats, which is an elite number. He faces off with Trevor Cahill tonight, who is actually a decent pitcher. His peripherals have slowly fallen off and I would expect this guy to tone it down a bit this season. His changeup is longer a plus pitch (as of 2016) and his fastball has dropped 2 MPH this season. Even at just 29, Cahill is showing signs of a pitcher who has worked his arm too hard. Unfortunately for him, he's pitching in a ballpark named Chase Field. He will get hit around here and the D-backs lefties are the guys I have the most interest in. Lamb has been absolutely dominant against right-handed pitching for 3 seasons now and it's certainly not a fluke. His price is lower than Bryant and slightly higher than Machado, which could end up making him somewhat low owned. Lamb against a righty in Chase was one of my favorite spots last season and I'll go ahead and stick with it here.

Kris Bryant FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - PIT (Glasnow) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.27

Third base is a spot to pay up at. We have 3 solid options here who have unlimited upside and are almost locked in for some kind of production tonight. We touched on Glasnow a couple times already and there really isn't too much to look at. he's a hyped up prospect with a live fastball and decent offspeed stuff. Problematically, he can't locate anything. He falls behind in the order and s forced to throw hittable to pitches to good hitters. Kris Bryant, while better against lefties, still held a .391 wOBA aginst righties in 2016. He also belted 25 homers and has plenty of power to hit it out in PNC. Bryant is going to be your most expensive option of the 3 guys we look at here and that could drive his ownership down a bit. When looking at their raw projection, I don't think one is clearly above the rest. If others think that, Bryant will end up around 10-15% owned in a fantastic match-up. You will have to pay down somewhere on this slate. Don't make it third base.

Outfield

Bryce Harper FD 5200 DK 6100
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.42

Bryce Harper against a righty in Coors Field. That's really all that needs to be said. Harper is one of the best hitters in baseball, and in terms of power, might be the best against righties. He's posted a career .368 wOBA against righties and has already smacked 7 homers against them this season. Like mentioned, Tyler Chatwood is basically an average pitcher in Coors Field. He doesn't get as much movement on his off-speed pitches and ends p relying on his fastball. Harper hit righties fastball at a .496 wOBAa clip in 2016 and in Coors Field, the converted numbers would be egregious. He's going to cost you a ton of money and rightfully so. This is a guy who accidentally hit 2 homers here and nobody would be surprised. He can also strikeout 4 times and I think people would be just as surprised. I really don't think he will be too popular in tournaments where you have to fade him. If you think Harper is in play, don't be scared away by the potential high ownership.

David Peralta FD 3300 DK 4100
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.49 DK - 7.27

David Peralta is pretty similar against righties to Jake Lamb. They are the 2 guys I pair up a ton as the production is very similar. Like Lamb, Peralta sported an elite ..397 wOBA in 2015, which was his last full season. He always makes for a great play against a righty and on a slate with so many options, I don't think Arizona is where many will look. I don't love them as a stack. I will have some shares of Lamb and Peralta as 1-off's and a combo, as I think the upside for those 2 guys supersedes the likes of Goldy and Tomas, who hit lefties far better. Like I said, Cahill really isn't that bad. He has decent stuff and does a good job of limiting baserunners. He will struggle here in Chase Field and the AZ lefties are some of my favorite tournament options on the slate.

Dexter Fowler FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Latos) Park - @STL
FD - 9.42 DK - 7.35

Dexter Fowler is definitely seeing the ball well now and it looks like he's ready for take-off. Mat Latos should press that accelerate button a little bit here as he is horrible against lefties. Dating back to 2015, Latos has posted a .344 wOBA to go along with 15 home runs in just 80 innings. He attempts to keep the ball on the ground but ends up leaving the ball over the plate and getting exposed. Fowler is a switch-hitter who is better against righties, sporting a .363 wOBA and hitting 25.6% line drives. DraftKings has priced these Cardinals guys up as they are in a very good spot. On FanDuel, Fowler is a lock and load in cash games. He will see 5 at-bats in this one and the production should flow. If you are looking to stack this team, make sure you keep an eye out for the lineup. Carpenter was out today and something funky could be going on in the middle of the order if he's out again.

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