Chicago Bulls' Jimmy Butler (21) waits for a play to develop as he is guarded by New York Knicks' Arron Afflalo, right, during the third quarter of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Dec. 19, 2015, in New York. New York defeated Chicago 107-91. (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow)
Only two games tonight and neither of them an elimination game. But that doesn't mean the stakes are any lower. There's plenty to dissect here on a short NBA slate.
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The Hawks have fought their way back into this series and won the last two games going away. A big reason Atlanta was able to hold Washington at bay in Game 4 was the reemergence of Dwight Howard who played his most minutes (30) of any game in the series went 16/15 for the game. This is likely an outlier game for the big man as he’s often more a liability in this series than an actual puzzle piece. I can see folks over-buying on him based on the Game 4 performance and I think that’s last time we see that kind of game from him. From a DFS standpoint, Atlanta is a tough nut to crack because they really like to spread the love. Hell, Kent Bazemore was the value star last game with a 16/7/4/3 line but I woudn’t bank on that either. I’m just not that interested in the team for cash games considering most of their pricing has leveled out and no one is playing big minutes enough to warrant the salaries.
The Wizards meanwhile are very much the opposite. They need every single freaking minute from the starters because the bench represents such a massive dropoff in talent. John Wall, Bradley Beal and Otto Porter all played around 40 minutes in Game 4 and should do so again tonight. Each of them are elite values on this slate and I’ll likely play at least four Wizards in cash tonight. They have the highest minutes floor of any team on the slate. Wall had a bit of a down game with “only” a 22/10/5 last time out. Beal was a monster with 32 thanks to putting up a team high 23 shots. They will be highly owned.
Porter hasn’t had a great series but it’s kept his price down. Markieff Morris ran into foul trouble and I’d expect something of a bounce back game from him. And finally, Marcin Gortat went HAM on the boards with 18 rebounds though he only scored 2 points in the game. If you can’t tell, I love the Wiz on this short slate.
After losing the first two games of the series at home, the Celtics have clawed back into this thing and have the series knotted at two apiece. It sure feels like the momentum is Boston’s favor especially with Rajon Rondo (of all people) still on the shelf for the Bulls. The Celtics have an elite scorer of course in Isaiah Thomas, but beyond that it’s tough to suss out much of their DFS value (and even IT3 might be a little overpriced still).
Even at only 24 or so minutes Gerald Green is still something of a value on this uber-small slate if he’s still starting. He had a big, out of the box, scoring game last time around which will likely have his ownership on the higher end, but you can still play the guy.
By far the best value on the slate is Isaiah Canaan who enters the starting lineup as part of the Bulls’ PG Carousel thats been in effective pretty much the entire season. He’s as cheap as it gets and played 34 minutes off the bench last game. If he’s not a 100% start in cash games on this short slate then I will personally seek out the % of people who didn’t play him and ask them stern questions about their DFS life.
It’s hard to imagine Jimmy Butler playing less that 43 minutes in this game and he’ll be another chalk play. He’s had an up and down series but last game finished with a 33/9/5 line. I’m also a fan of Dwyane Wade who saw a big uptick in minutes last game. If that’s the new normal for the rest of these playoffs then he’s still underpriced.
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View Comments
Doug (and anyone else reading this),
I've been a loyal reader of this column since I started playing daily NBA early on in the season. Last night I won FD's budlight playoff challenge (winner gets trip to Miami to participate in live final event), however I'm tied with 38 other people and FD informed me there will be a tie breaker contest tonight. Any and all advice is greatly appreciated!
My only advice to u,pick 1 or 2 players that u know I repeat u know are not popular picks and hope they either exceed value or hit value,especially on these 2 game slate..I'm going with jerbeko and calderon and stack everywhere else..I just hope they ecceed a Lil value and it's enough to separate me from the others..2 of my core 4...with wall and hartford..good luck..everyone else people gonna pick..your it,green,prince,milsapp,especially howard,Beal ext...
Thanks man. My initial lineup without looking into it at all in depth is: wall, cannaan, beal, green, butler, porter, millsap, morris, horford. I know no one there is going to be crazy underowned but Im thinking porter and maybe morris will be close since theyve both had bad series. But wizards starters get so many minutes its hard to fade them. Considering subbing horford for gortat and moving away from green to maybe hardaway
Whomever gets the right Atlanta player or players will be in a great position tonight, IMO. I would suggest taking another look at Wade or Bradley/Smart. Good Luck man.
hey Justin...Well done and good luck.
Just want to say i have been reading you for the past 13 days. I have always done ok never had on going winnings come in. But i can say i have went from 28 dollars 13 days ago to cashing in almost 1000 dollars. I dont make tons of line ups but do 4 a day and last night was my best finish i came in 2end .75 points out of 1st boy that hurt but you daily wrap has done more for me thank you. And i see you take heat but really from what i have seen say and what i do in my prep has been a beautiful thing. Thank you