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There's no shortage of stacking options on this slate, as about half of tonight's games will be in nice hitters parks, but per usual, we're starting with the best of them all. We don't know an awful lot about Rockies starter German Marquez -- this will be his fourth career start and his first of the season -- but we know plenty about Coors Field. We also know enough about the Nationals' bats to not be too worried about a 22-year-old with little experience and modest pedigree. Washington's numbers against RHP are only slightly better than average this season, but the pure talent present in this lineup suggests they should be climbing the offensive leaderboards soon. As for Marquez, he started showing up in some Top 100 prospect lists for the first time prior to this season, and his minor league numbers are fine. But he projects as an average K guy with average-ish ground ball rates, so until he proves he can tamp down big-league offenses in his unfortunate home park, we'll be happy to stack against him.
The only reservation here is Clayton Richard's extreme ground ball tendencies (63.6% over his last 130+ IP dating back to 2015). Obviously, that keeps the ball in the yard and limits the chances of extra base hits. So, definitely take that into consideration, but also don't forget to consider the fact that he has a career sub-6 K/9 and the Diamondbacks have some guys who crush lefties. They were a top-five offense in baseball last season in both wOBA and wRC+ vs. southpaws, and that was mostly without the services of A.J. Pollock and his career .361 wOBA and .217 ISO vs. lefties. Other noted lefty killers here include Paul Goldschmidt (career .429 wOBA, .257 ISO) and Yasmany Tomas (.394 wOBA, .260 ISO). It's also worth noting that the Padres bullpen looks pretty bad. With full understanding that we're dealing with a sample size of just over 60 IP, we can't overlook the fact that they have the sixth-worst xFIP in baseball with the third-highest fly-ball percentage and more than 2 HRs/9.
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Because why not. It probably won't be quite as profitable as it was last night, when everybody was on Amir Garrett and the Brewers bats could be had at extremely low ownership percentages, but it's getting to the point that I'm taking a flyer on at least one Milwaukee lineup every time they're a) in a hitters park and b) not facing an established stud. Check and check. Miller Parks ranks in the top five in overall park factors and top three for homers, and the Brewers are seemingly on a mission to exploit their home park. They lead all of baseball in homers, ISO and slugging percentage. But they're also striking out more frequently than anybody else and their team OBP is kinda bad at .308, so they can definitely flop, and if Ryan Braun is out of the lineup tonight, they're a less appealing than they would be otherwise. But Eric Thames and Travis Shaw still look pretty intriguing against Scott Feldman and his career 5.46 Ks/9 vs. lefties.
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