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It's a pretty rare occurrence that Coors Field doesn't get top billing in this column, but it's expected to be in the 40s in Denver tonight and the Cubs are facing a low-K guy with a breeze blowing out in Cincinnati, so here we are. The Cubs offense hasn't fully gotten on track yet this season, but the potential within this lineup is well-established. Dating back to last year, they rank in the top three in team wOBA and wRC+, and while Dexter Fowler has been replaced by Kyle Schwarber, if you're looking for maximum fantasy upside, that should be a net positive. As for Cincinnati SP Tim Adleman, we haven't seen much of him, but through 14 starts, there's an awful lot to like from the Cubs' perspective, including 1.71 HR/9, a groundball rate of just 35%, and an xFIP over 5.00. And though we've had some offensive duds in Cincinnati this season, it still ranks in the top 10 for HR factors in the early stages of 2017, and regressed over the last three years it's tied for first with Coors.
It'll be interesting to see where everybody comes down on Coors Field tonight. On one hand, paying a price bump on San Francisco's middling power isn't all that attractive. On the other hand, Coors Field. On one hand, Johnny Cueto is pretty studly. On the other hand, Coors Field. We're siding with the Giants here. Colorado starter Tyler Chatwood does a good job of limiting homers, but as alluded to, that's not really the attraction with the San Fran bats. A big part of the Coors effect has to do with its spacious confines, and we like the probability that a team with as many good contact hitters as the Giants will make use of those generous gaps. Dating back to 2016 no National League team has struck out less, and though the rest of the offensive numbers aren't eye-popping, they're about average vs. RHP. And sometimes average is all you need to be to pile up fantasy points in Colorado.
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With as much as the Brewers strike out, there's always some danger of a bust, but they can also put up runs in bunches, and that's been the more frequent occurrence lately. They lead the majors in runs, home runs, ISO and slugging right now, and they're not far of the pace in steals. So, yeah. Upside a-plenty. Of course, they're also hitting only .238 as a team and rank second in K%, so you're definitely getting some bad with the good. But Adam Wainwright's just an average guy at this point in his career, and with Miller Park boosting offense, we think it'd probably be wise to take a shot that the power surge continues. The first four are the clear frontrunners here. It gets a little sketchy beyond that, but Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton still have (theoretical) high ceilings, and both Milwaukee catchers are in play.
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I think I'm going to try a Texas stack tonight. All are overdue for a big game. Odor, Andrus, Mazara, and Gallo.