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Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @LAD
FD - 33.07 DK - 21.58
This is a pretty interesting slate at pitcher. While we don't have any elite arms that stand out, there are some great arms that are a bit cheaper. Brandon McCarthy has been a solid arm for the better part of 3 years now when healthy. He has held a sub .310 wOBA against both righties and lefties since 2014 and a .311 BABIP backed it up. He also upped his K% to 9.40 in 2016, though the sample size could be ab it worrisome there with only 40 innings under his belt. He faces off with the Diamondbacks tonight, who notoriously struggle against righties and are also much worse on the road, away from the hitter-friendly Chase Field. McCarthy is fairly priced on both sites and makes for a very solid cash game option. He may be a bit underwhelming in tournaments just do to his ceiling but he lets you pay up elsewhere, so the argument is there. The win is also in question as Robbie Ray is a pretty good pitcher. Let's take a look at him, who's a bit better in tournaments.
Opponent - LAD (McCarthy) Park - @LAD
FD - 33.48 DK - 22.12
In tournaments, Robbie Ray may be the way to go tonight. He has a solid strikeout floor around 5 and against this Dodgers team, the upside is there. In 2016, the Dodgers ranked dead last against lefties with a .275 wOBA, sitting 15 points behind the Phillies in 29th. They also struck out 23% of the time against lefties. When you combo that with Ray and his 11.25 K/9, we could see 10 K's and not be surprised. Ray dominated lefties (.298 wOBA) and struggled against righties, allowing 21 homers in 130 innings. The Dodgers only have a few righties to worry about and this park will sure help. Chase Field is a top 3 park for right-handed power and Dodgers Stadium is bottom 10. With all of this being said, this is Robbie Ray. If he can't locate his fastball, he will crumble. He has a much lower floor than McCarthy, though, in tournaments, the upside is worth it. On DraftKings, I don't mind pairing these 2 in cash games. In tournaments, you do lower your ceiling a little bit.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 37.05 DK - 24.32
If you want to pay up for a safe win and a quality start, John Lackey makes sense. There should be plenty of value on this slate and the extra few K may end up being expendable. Lackey struggled last game in the first inning, before going 5 scoreless and striking out 10. He struck out more batters per 9 innings in 2016 than he has since 2005, when he was a top pitcher. While it's only an 8.5 K/9, it's intriguing to see a guy make that change at 38. He is still throwing the ball well and I'm willing to trust he gets it done for at least another year. This Brewers team is filled with a lot of righties that strikeout. They struggle against righties every season and Eric Thames isn't good enough to turn around the whole team. After Thames and Shaw, the Brewers are atrocious. They have run out a bottom 5 of Santana, Broxton, Arcia, Bandy, and the pitcher spot. That is absolutely pitiful against right-handed pitching. Lackey is a safe option and on FanDuel where salaries are a bit more relaxed, I like him. The win is safer than it is for McCarthy and the upside is higher as well.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.11 DK - 6.14
The Cubs are going to be a big target tonight. They face a righty pitcher in Chase Anderson who struggles more against righties, sporting a ridiculous .394 wOBA against in 2016. He allowed 17 homers in just 81 innings. To put it simply, he is horrible. Everyone on this Cubs lineup is firmly in play. They will be my favorite stack and I will likely have 4 of them in cash games. I am sincerely hoping people thing Chase Anderson is all of a sudden good. He is still the same pitcher he was last year and you can be sure of that. Willson Contreras mashed righties in 2016, finishing with a .362 wOBA and a .213 ISO. Contreras is one of the more powerful catchers in the game and you can look for 20 homers this season, if not more. At a position that always lacks production, Contreras is an elite play.
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.32 DK - 6.06
In cash, Contreras is a pretty fantastic way to go. In tournaments, there are plenty of other guys at catcher with HR upside. They may not be the greatest of hitters, but they can hit it far when they hit it. McCann certainly fits into that category. He will go 0-for-4 a lot. He will also go 1-for-4 with an HR a few times, which is what we're looking for. Against righties, McCann has held a 34% hard contact rate and hit 17 or more homers in each season. Minute Maid Park is a bit better for righties, though the gaps are tough for both handednesses. Chavez is a decent young arm that has never been able to stay under control. He allowed a .364 wOBA against righties in 2016 and backed it up with weak peripherals. McCann has nowhere near the presumptive safety of Contreras but the upside is right there and he will be lower owned.
Opponent - SD (Weaver) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.7 DK - 7.8
Yippee, Jered Weaver. Cy Weaver made his yearly appearance in Coors Field last week, allowing just 2 homers in 6 innings. He should be back to his normal self here against the Braves. Weaver doesn't strike anyone out and the Braves don't strikeout against righties, so this should be a case of Weaver getting singled and doubled to death. Freeman is one of the guys who has the power to hit it out and the numbers to absolutely destroy Weaver. Against righties, Freeman held a .410 wOBA in 2016. He's one of the purest hitters from the left side and has one of the greatest floors in baseball. The ceiling is also there against Jered Weaver, who can give up homers to the worst of lefties. Freeman is an elite cash game play on this slate and a tourney option you can't deny. The only possible issue would be Weaver pitching around Freeman but I don't think he will have that luxury with people on-base.
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @NYY
FD - 8.9 DK - 6.56
We don't know too much about Jordan Montgomery. He's a young southpaw with a decent K rate and a high walk rate. What we do know is he will give up homers and struggle against righties. Yankee Stadium is a tough place to pitch and I can't expect a rookie to go out and have a strong game. The White Sox do have some solid righties and I think a team stack is definitely in play. Abreu at first is a solid 1-off in tournaments and a pretty good cash game play as well on FanDuel where he is cheap. Abreu held a .352 wOBA against lefties in 2016 and actually held peripherals that suggest he underperformed. Yankee Stadium isn't too big and Abreu is a guy who can spread the ball around with his power. Abreu won't be too highly owned and he can have his classic 2 HR game at any time.
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.62 DK - 7.62
The Indians are in a pretty interesting spot here. Kyle Gibson is not a good pitcher and he struggled against both lefties and righties in 2016. Against righties, he sported a .327 wOBA and allowed 11 homers in 80 innings. It was a big bump down from the year before, when he was somewhat decent. It will be interesting to see how Gibson comes out in 2017 after such a disappoint '16 season. As for Encarnacion, he held a .370 wOBA against righties in 2016. He backed that up with a 37.5% hard contact rate and a 20.7% LD rate. Target Field is pretty nice for righty power and Encarnacion has plenty of it. I definitely like Freeman and Abreu more in cash but can see the merit in tournaments.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.11 DK - 6.82
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 7.05 DK - 5.59
Depending on how Joe Maddon puts the lineup together, both of these guys are in play. He is very cognizant of advanced stats, so he 100% knows that Anderson is worse against righties. For that reason, Baez should see a bump in the order over a guy like Heyward. Baez is better against lefties, though the majority of his power comes against right-handers. He is an elite tournament play and the guy I would choose if I had to pick up a cheap HR. As for Zobrist, you have to like him when the Cubs lineup is projected to score a lot. He is a guy who is always involved in big innings and always finds a way to score fantasy points. Against Chase Anderson, he will have an opportunity to drive in a run or two. His price has come down on both sites and he makes for the top cash game 2B on the day.
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @STL
FD - 9.38 DK - 6.83
Matt Carpenter is a little expensive on DraftKings. You can still play him but he's restricted to tourneys. On FanDuel at just $3000, you can bet he will be popular. Ivan Nova will face the Cardinals here in Busch Stadium. While Nova is a guy who has solid stuff, he hasn't been great over the last 2 seasons. In 2016, he allowed a .362 wOBA and backed it up with a 37.5% hard contact rate. Carpenter, on the other hand, sported a .386 wOBA in 2016. Carpenter is still one of the best hitters in the league against righties and he is an elite cash game option. Zobrist and Baez are definitely intriguing options and I like them a lot. However, on FanDuel, it's hard to stay away from Carpenter at ths price.
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Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @STL
FD - 9.05 DK - 6.9
Shortstop isn't great. We are looking for a guy with a solid floor and a high ceiling, which Aledmys Diaz fits. He has a lot of power for an SS and hits in the middle of a fantastic lineup against Ivan Nova. While Ivan Nova is worse against lefties, he's not very good against righties either. He allowed a .306 wOBA and gave up 13 homers in just 90 innings. Diaz was absolutely dominant against righties in 2016. He sported a .393 wOBA and hit 14 homers in some pretty tough ballparks. Diaz is pretty expensive on both sites and I hope that keeps people off of him. Shortstop is weak and Diaz is one of the only guys I'm comfortable playing here. The Cardinals offense has been rather steady and Diaz should be sandwiched by Carpenter and another solid lefty. Go ahead and target Diaz in all formats on both sites. On FanDuel, you may want to pay down a bit for Addison Russell. Let's take a look.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.6 DK - 6.39
Ideally, would get away from the Cubs here and take a look at some other SS in a good spot. Unfortunately, that's nothing something you can easily find on this slate. Sure, you can pay up fro Francisco Lindor against Kyle Gibson. It's a fine match-up and Lindor has the most talent on the board. Personally, I would rather spend my money elsewhere. With Russell just $2,7k on FD and $3.6k on DK, you have to give a long hard look. With Anderson being worse against righties and Russell hitting in the 4/5 spot for the majority of the season, you have to like the opportunities he will be given at this price. While better against lefties, Russell still hit 12 homers against right-handers. The upside is there and this position is lacking a ton of it. Russell will be very highly owned at such a weak position nd there's merit in the fade. This is baseball, remember that.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.39
Yes, please. Personally, no other third baseman will touch my roster. I've already touched on Anderson and how bad he is but let's do this again. To preface, he's a righty. You may not believe it when you see the numbers but it's true. In 2016, he allowed a mystifying .394 wOBA against righties. He backed that up 17 homers allowed in just under 80 total innings. Bryant on the other hand, demolished right-handed pitching in Wrigley with a .388 wOBA. This is one of the best possible match-ups for Bryant in the league and I will have 100%. He is my top priority on this slate and will be the guy I click on first. In MLB tournaments, there's always merit to fading. Chase Anderson fooled us all last week and made us waste our money. The beautiful thing about baseball? Regression. Math. I will just do the opposite and go above the field with 100% exposure.
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @NYY
FD - 2.03 DK - 1.55
While Kris Bryant is my guy, this is baseball and Jered Weaver was decent in Coors Field. Anything can happen. In tournaments, I completely understand getting off of a highly owned power hitter and targeting a cheaper guy with similar upside. Todd Frazier sported a .339 wOBA in 2016 and hit 10 homers in 110 at-bats. Frazier has a ton of power in his bat and hit 40 homers total last season. Montgomery is a youngster who won't last long in this game and should allow some runs to the righties. Frazier is more of a tournament option due to his high strikeout rate and low BABIP. In tournaments, though, he is an absolute monster and will be much lower owned than a guy like Kris Bryant.
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.39
I feel like I write up Kyle Schwarber every day and I think it's because I do. He is the leadoff hitter in the best lineup in baseball, facing off with one of the worst pitchers on the slate. While Anderson is worse against right-handers, he's not good against lefties either. He allowed 11 homers to them in just 70 innings and also held a .211 BABIP. Anderson will see plenty of regression against hitters from the left side, as hi xFIP is only .07 lower than it is against righties. Anderson has a solid change-up and is able to keep lefties off balance. Luckily, Schwarber holds .496 wOBA against the change-up since entering the league. Good Luck Chase.
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.7 DK - 7.05
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @OAK
FD - 8.65 DK - 6.29
A.J. Griffin has some very bad numbers against lefties. He was far and away the worst pitcher around against lefties in 2016. He sported a .406 wOBA and a 44% hard contact rate against. Matt Joyce is one of the top punt plays on the slate and is in the outfield, where you don't have as much of an opportunity cost. Joyce has always hit righties well and is always a solid cash game option. Against righties, A.J. Griffin is very meh. He held a 5.65 xFIP in 2016 and allowed 10 homers in just 62 innings. He is a flyball pitcher and Davis held a .391 wOBA against that type in 2016. Davis is a fantastic tournament option with a lot of upside. A.J. Griffin is going to have a lot of problems with the Athletics here and they don't have a bullpen to make up for it. Both of these OF's are a solid way to go.
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.03 DK - 7.91
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 8.11 DK - 6.02
In 2016, Miranda dominated righties with a .297 wOBA. On the contrary, he allowed a 37% hard contact rate and 11 home runs in just 47 innings. Digging a bit deeper, it's quite clear what;s going on. Miranda held a .183 BABIP against righties. With an xFIP of .5.83 against them, you can expect a ton of regression from Miranda. go ahead and target righties against him every game. The production will come. Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna are both elite against lefties. While Stanton gets a lot of attention and rightfully so, Ozuna did hold a.384 wOBA against lefties in 2016, which was only 7 points lower than Stanton. Both of these guys have insane power against southpaws and it's not like there seeing a ballpark downgrade either. Safeco Field is just as spacious as Marlins Park and these guys are used to it. This OF stack is one with a ton of upside for tournaments. Don't let Miranda and his weird numbers scare you away. The numbers are simply due to sample size.
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