Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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We think either side of this game is in play, but we're siding with the Reds, mostly due to Tommy Millone's extreme fly-ball tendencies. There are complications here, though. Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza occupy the top two spots in the lineup, and you pretty much have to forego the hope of a home run (even in the Great American Ballpark) when you roster them. That's fine for one guy; for two, I'm not so sure. Of course, the flip side is that if they get on base, they're a good bet to run, so it's not like you're not punting upside or anything. Also, there's Joey Votto. He's off to a slow start and will be facing a lefty in this one, but he owns a .390 lifetime wOBA and .200 ISO vs. LHP, so we're not too worried about him either. But the matchups start to really look juicy after that. Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez each have .200 career ISOs against southpaws, and Zack Cozart's was up to .225 in the split last year. All three have also opened 2017 on fire, and while we don't put much stock in the predictive value of hot streaks, all things being equal, I'd rather have a hot hitter than a slumping one.
Weather could be an issue here, so that'll need to be monitored. But if the clouds clear, there's a lot to like about the Twins facing 25-year-old non-prospect Dylan Covey. The Rule 5 pick has never pitched above Double-A and the minor league numbers are mostly pedestrian. Scouting reports peg him as a groundballer, which isn't ideal, but he hasn't missed many bats in the minors, and that's a big deal against guys like Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano. They're the two obvious plays if you're stacking Twins, but don't skip over Max Kepler if he's in the two hole. He finished 2016, his first full year in the bigs, with a .215 ISO vs. RHP.
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I don't know when the last time I wrote up the Royals as a stack recommendation, but that kind of tells you where we're at on this slate. We've got three good parks: Cincinnati, Yankee Stadium and the Rogers Centre, but while Cincinnati gets the green light, we've got major issues with the other two. Namely, the Yankees are doing dumb stuff with their batting order and Michael Wacha doesn't give up homers, and the Blue Jays are in an offensive coma and Josh Donaldson looks like he's about to hit the DL. Maybe you wanna throw a dart with a weak-looking Cardinals offense against Tanaka, but I think I'm gonna pass, and I'm not stacking anybody against Aaron Sanchez. So, that's how we arrive here. The Indians might be the safer play, but I'm pretty intrigued by Kansas City here. They're not a stack in which we're counting on multiple bombs, but going against JC Ramirez in his first career start we like their chances of racking up hits and runs. Ramirez isn't a newcomer, but he hasn't made a start in a regular season game since 2011 in Double-A ball. In between then and now he's amassed a 5.12 FIP with 1.51 HRs/9 in 131+ bullpen innings in the majors. So, the matchup is soft, and he's backed up by a mediocre bullpen. On a night where we're paying up for pitching, that's good enough for us to take a shot on some of the value available in KC's top six spots.
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