Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) drives on Detroit Pistons guard Reggie Jackson during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 2, 2016, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/R Brent Smith)
Well, the regular season draws to a close tonight. What a long strange, minutes-laden trip it's been. If the average night in the NBA is a beautiful dance to determine who gets the most run and usage, tonight is the mosh pit that throws the whole thing into anarchy. Outside of just a few teams playing for something, we have a ton of uncertainty. It's going to get weird.
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 35.56 DK - 38.44
There aren’t many teams with something to play for tonight, but the Heat are one of them. They need to win and the Bulls to lose to the sneak into the 8th seed in the playoffs. Considering (basically) all of the games kick off at 8PM you can assume Dragic sees his full compliment of minutes and the Heat really shortened up their rotations last game. Dragon played 40 minutes last game though he was a little underwhelming on the offensive end. Expect to see him with a ton of run tonight against a Wiz team with really nothing to play for. On this last night of the regular season we are only looking for players with minutes’ safety because of the win motivation. Dragic is in that category.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 23.23 DK - 24.5
The Bulls are in the same boat, duking it out for the last seed in the East. Grant’s been playing minutes with Rondo out and the latter is doubtful for tonight’s game. Of course if Rondo were a full go then we could eliminate Grant (figuratively, not literally) but dude’s been money since entering the starting PG for the Bulls. He went 17/11 in only 28 minutes against the Magic on Monday night and has been a solid scorer and producer over the last three games. Keep an eye on Rondo news and use Grant liberally if he’s the starter tonight.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 29.41 DK - 31.27
Sixers don’t have a thing to play for but that hasn’t effected McConnell’s minutes much in the short term. They are still without Sergio Rodriguez and TJ’s seen about 34+ minutes on lock in the short term. Philly just doesn’t have many guys who can dribble the ball effectively over midcourt. This game against the Knicks doesn’t mean a damn thing but I do suspect McConnell continues to see solid minutes which is more than you can say about most other guys on this slate.
Strongly consider Ron Baker in the same game. Dude isn’t all that good as an NBA’er but does seem to garner a lot of run with the Knicks sitting everyone out.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 26.25 DK - 28.44
Speaking of teams with nothing to play for. I give you the New York Knickerbockers. They are a sad bunch but luckily for us will play their losers major minutes because they don’t have a lot of subpar depth. Holiday played 40 minutes against Toronto in the start on Sunday and got the job done on these prices. He went 10/5/5 and I think you can expect similar run in this game. It’s a good matchup against a no-D Philly squad and he’s coming cheap enough that you can even sustain a 10% drop in minutes because well, the Knicks.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 27.98 DK - 30.1
Assuming Barton, Gallo and Mudiay sit again tonight, I think you can expect mid 30’s minutes out of Harris and that offers about a good a floor as you’ll see on this slate. He played 35 minutes last night and went up for a 20/8/8 line that was among the winners for the slate. The Nuggets are so thin in the backcourt right now that even if they wanted to rest the guy they don’t have a lot of options to replace the guy. A solid mid tier play and should see plenty of run if the aforementioned guys all can’t go.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 26.53 DK - 28.78
We’re at the point of the season (the end, thankfully) in which we start recommending guys you’d have never heard of if these picks were released just a month ago. But here we are. TLC’s playing mid 30’s minutes for the Sixers and putting up about 14 shots per game over the last five. He’s averaging a 19/3/2 in that time and taking plenty of threes. He’s probably a little overpriced considering the skill set, but I do think he’s in line for run tonight against the Knicks.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.13 DK - 54.14
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 47.92 DK - 51.97
As far as “big money” guys go tonight, there are likely your chalk options. They are both elite plays going in games that mean something for their respective teams. I suspect, because of the narratives around tonight’s slate, you see these two dudes as the chalk plays in the upper tier. Butler didn’t have to do much against Orlando on Monday because the Bulls were blowing the doors off the Magic. Oh and he gets to face the Nets. Now of course the worry here is the game is well over by the third quarter considering Brooklyn is sitting both Lin and Lopez. But that’s a risk you need to endure on a crazy last night in the Association.
Meanwhile, PG was well on his way to a fantastic night against the Sixers on Monday and got baited into an ejection after he took a forearm to the throat from Gerald Henderson. He’s been fantastic of late, increasing his usage and carrying the Pacers on their four game winning streak. Few other players in this price range have the same kind of minutes expectation as PG tonight considering the narrative. Expect a heavy shot volume to continue tonight and I suspect the Hawks are frisky in keeping the game close.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 25.72 DK - 26.93
The Nets have been loathe to play their starters any meaningful minutes this season which has led to plenty of heartache on our predictive end. But RHJ has been exception over the last couple of games running 37 and 30 minutes respectively. The Nets are without both Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopex tonight which does stand to increase dude’s usage and rebounding. I’m all for buying on the guy tonight considering the Nets are without two of their main cogs and he’s been a rather steady (for the Nets) presence in the lineup.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 36.36 DK - 39.27
Like I said with Dragic, the Heat are in “Win now or never” mode tonight. They don’t have many other options and have gone to much shorter rotations in the short term. That’s left Johnson starting and playing major minutes. He’s averaged 37 minutes in the last three with a 17/8/6 line. That’s more than enough for our cash game needs on such an uncertain slate. He’ll be another chalk play because of the narrative and his recent minutes boost. The price hasn’t fully caught up to the opportunity and even if it had I’d still see him as one of the safer bets tonight.
Opponent - NY
Proj Pts FD - 33.42 DK - 34.87
He got into foul trouble early last game and still played mid-30's minutes. The Sixers just don't have a ton in the way of big men with both Embiid and Okafor on the shelf and do kind of need Holmes to run big minutes when he can. He's played 31+ on average in the last three and put up about a double-double in that stretch. I'm mostly counting on the minutes being there tonight against a much weakened Knicks frontcourt.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 32.36 DK - 34.49
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 25.72 DK - 27.68
Both should see about 30+ minutes in the starting unit for the Lakers tonight against a terrible Pelicans front court. The Lakers are kind of out of full tank mode considering they accidentally won some games down the stretch. I like both of these guys for their scoring and rebounding and they do present some matchup problems with the current form of the Pelicans' big men.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 36.52 DK - 38.27
The Knicks are playing without Melo and Zinger again tonight and those two sitting (plus a Noah drug thing-y) have left minutes and usage for Willy H to soak up. He went for a 24/11/5 game in 31 minutes Sunday against the Raptors and even got the job done against a staunch Grizzly front court with an 11/10/3 the game before. I really like the opportunity against a Sixers team getting shredded by opposing centers without Embiid and Okafor. Expect the minutes to hover around the 30 mark and for him to push up against a double-double.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 25.24 DK - 26.49
Without Davis and Boogie, Ajinca’s become the last big man standing among the Pelicans. He isn’t particularly good, but that doesn’t matter this time of year as long as his Nikes are hitting the hardwood. He’s been fine enough in the short term and has been able to score with his court time. I’m a little surprised the rebounding numbers are so low, but this guy’s a plodding foul box and there’s a reason he struggles to get on the court. But again, this is the last day of the NBA season and we’ll take the value where we can get it. Ajinca should see C minutes tonight for the Pels.
If Boban Marjanovic is going to see minutes tonight then you need to consider the dude.
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View Comments
Philly Knicks?
NM...still on coffee #1 :)
@Doug and @ James. I just won my two big tournaments yesterday. I don't subscribe to your system cause I guess just ego thing i guess; I wanna do it myself. But I am an avid listener to ur podcast in my car to work and read your blog to see injury updates and sleeper - value - punt plays. I just wanted to say thank you so much for the info you provide. If you are wine drinkers, I have two great wines with both your names on it. Let me know where to send it. Thanks a lot again.
Hey! That's such awesome news. So happy when we get comments like this. Congrats on the wins. No worries on the wine, enjoy it yourself. These messages are gift enough.
Hey Doug I do subscribe and have yet to hit the big 1. Send the wine my way I prefer a sweet red if available. Get back to me and I'll let you know where to send it...
So the advice from the experts here have been how important the number 1 seed is to the CAVS and you need to play them. Most of the posters disagreed and now the CAVS sat their stars the last 2 games. Guess the posters were right again that CLE didn't care. Where's Joe to tell us how he missed this one again? Nevermind I'm sure that one of his cronies will have another excuse.
I think I cashed in every line up the last week-plus with this late season non sense. Missed the big one two nights ago by not playing Lawson over Ulis even though he's wrecked in those situations all year. Nice work guys.
LeBron doesn't care about the No. 1 seed. Wizards might be able to push them, but the rest of the East is garbage. Only way the Cavs don't win the East is if LeBron gets hurt.