Wizards v/s Thunder 03/14/11
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Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 62.24 DK - 66.81
At this point what is there left to say about Russell Westbrook? He's about as sure a shot for MVP as there has been in recent years, he broke a 55 year old record for triple doubles in a season on Sunday against a Nuggets back court that had no place being in the same arena, and it was their arena. The price, as insane as it may look, is not as outrageous as it may seem at first glance, when you consider that tonight, like last night there will be so many value plays popping up (keep on reading if you doubt me) the sites are completely justifiable in setting it at this unprecedented level. He's Russell Westbrook. He's on another level. This is his game, all we can do is sit back and watch the fantasy points accumulate.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.05 DK - 28.84
Speaking of Westbrook's historic game. Nobody had a better view of it than Jamal Murray. Perhaps he was just awestruck in that game, because in the 4 of the past 5 games that he started for Jameer Nelson, this was the worst outing yet. Two days earlier against the Pelicans he exploded for 30 points in 38 minutes, Sunday against OKC, a mere 6 in 36. Dallas has been a nightmare for opposing point guards this season, but the Nuggets will most likely have to run Murray out there tonight until his legs fall off, so he will have ample time to pay value.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 18.58 DK - 19.8
That value I mentioned while rationalizing playing Russ at a near 14K price tag, it begins right here with Brian Roberts. Roberts got the start for Kemba Walker who is done for the season Monday night, and I am writing this too early to reflect on what he did, in what marks his first start of the season, but if he impresses, and the Hornets run him back out with the starting unit again tonight, then he comes in at a bargain price against a Hawks team that is really only playing to hold on to the six spot in the conference. Per-36 minutes this season, he averages 13.1 points, and 5 assists per game which is good for 20.5 FD points and gets us well past value into upside city. Compare that to Monday night's performance and make the call. Editors note: Roberts saw 27 minutes and accumulated 9.9 FD points last night against the Bucks. Still worth considering as a punt, but I'd exhaust all of my options in cash before settling here.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 34.39 DK - 37.27
In these final days of the season, minutes security is more precious than ever, and even though the Suns have long been eliminated from any hopes of the postseason, they still seem content to send Devin Booker out there for mucho minutes night in and night out. Sure he only saw 23 minutes against the Mavericks on Sunday, but that was because the Suns had that one well in hand with a 120-85 lead to start the fourth. Prior to that, Booker has averaged 38.2 minutes over his last ten games started, and averaged a 27.4/4.6/5.6 line over his last five games. Sacramento has been a dream match up all season for opposing point guards, and I'm sure while they're sitting their "studs" to get a better look at their young guys, that certainly hasn't made them a defensive powerhouse. I like Booker a little more on FanDuel with the discount, but can see a strong case to play him on both sites in cash.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 34.73 DK - 37.49
Nicolas Batum is another guy whose minutes feel locked in despite his team having nothing to fight for. Funny thing, is once Charlotte was all but out of contention for the playoffs, Batum all of a sudden decided to really hone in on his shooting. After 10 straight games of failing to score over 20 points, he has managed to sink 55 combined in his last two outings. Sadly, that has driven his price up slightly, but again, tonight it's all about the minutes and security. Batum has seen over 30 in his last 5 games going in to last night, topping out at 41 in Saturdays loss to the Celtics. Can we rely on the shooting to continue the way it's been going these past two outings? Perhaps, and if so, then Batum is a nice upside play, but regardless, the implied safety for cash games is what draws me in, though I will certainly roll the dice in a tournament or two as well.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 27.71 DK - 29.92
More value coming your way. Jordan Crawford has paid 5X value or better at his FD price in 11 of his 17 games since joining the Pelicans last month, and 7 of his last 8. The Pelicans have already shown they are not opposed to shutting guys down with nothing left to play for, so a player like Crawford, who has been quite impressive off the bench becomes much more desirable as we see the minutes slowly tick up to the 30 mark. I don't know if the upside is there on DraftKings, so I may be more inclined to keep him restricted to cash games over there, but you have to like the thought of a 7X ceiling on FanDuel. The one caveat in his favor even on DK would be the fact that this is the Lakers defense we're talking about here. So, maybe there is a case to be made even on DK. Still, I'll have him everywhere in cash, but limit the tournament exposure, mostly to FD.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 34.17 DK - 35.74
The Wolves have nothing to fight for, but Andrew Wiggins seems set to end the season with a bang. In his last five outings he's scored at least 24, and upwards of 41 points while playing no less than 37 minutes in four of those games. Tonight, he takes on a Thunder team that while on the season they're a league average match up for opposing threes, in their last ten games, they've fallen off quite a bit and are allowing 10 more FD points, than their season average to the position. I'm not in love with the small forward position as a whole as it looks right now, and currently there isn't much value jumping out at me, so unless some news breaks tomorrow to make something more appealing appear, I'm going to do what I can to squeeze Wiggins in to my lineups.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 29.49 DK - 30.89
Perfecto!! That was T.J. Warren on Sunday against the Mavericks. Warren went 8-8 shooting from the field including 2-2 from beyond the arc and made all three free throws. Warren has really emerged since the Suns traded off P.J. Tucker, playing 35.2 minutes per game since the trade and shooting 54.6%. Warren has paid or exceeded value in three of his last 4 games played, and everything I said about Devin Booker above regarding the matchup applies here. The Kings have made it clear they just aren't even trying at this point, so, Warren could be looking at a big night, particularly if he keeps his accuracy up.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 44.19 DK - 46.69
If you just can't stomach the price on Westbrook, then certainly give some thought to Nikola Jokic. He's not setting any triple double records any time soon, but he did set a career high with 5 stright double doubles. That streak was finally snapped Sunday against the Thunder. Jokic has only paid value at this price in three of his last 6 games, but if your plan of attack tonight is to go with the likes of Booker and Wiggins, you'll need an alternative to Russ, and Jokic could be just the guy. The Mavericks on the season are the fourth toughest matchup for opposing power forwards, but over their last ten games they've been the sixth most generous, and are allowing 7 more fantasy points to the position during that span. I'm a Westbrook guy, but I can't fault you for pivoting to Jokic tonight, and the system agrees.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 31.54 DK - 33.35
I listed Skal Labissiere among the "every lineup guys" on Sunday, and I hope you took that advice and ran with it. Skal ended the night paying 9X points per dollar putting up a 25/6/3 line with 2 steals in 31 minutes. With Kosta Koufos shut down for the season Skal should continue to pay dividends, seeing at least 30 minutes and continuing to feed the ball to the basket as he makes his case to the Kings brass for his position on the team next season. I told you we had plenty of value tonight, and no one presents more upside than Labi. Play him everywhere.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 23.77 DK - 24.71
Ivica Zubac's season ending ankle injury opened the door to opportunity for Larry Nance Jr. and he has taken full advantage of that opportunity to make a difference in their final few games of another forgettable season. Nance has double doubled in two of his last 4 games, and exceeded value in all four, most recently netting ten points and rebounds, to match with 6 assists, 2 blocks and a steal against Minnesota on Sunday. Boogie and the Brow have already been ruled out for tonight, so Nance will be contending with the likes of Cunningham, Diallo, Ajinca, and Montiejunas for his duration of time on the court which sets the sky as the limit for Nance's ceiling.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 44.32 DK - 47.01
Another alternative to Westbrook, KAT has been lighting up the boards recently, paying at least 4.5X in 4 of his last five games and taking complete advantage of the Lakers poor interior defense to the tune of nearly 7X at this salary. In 41 minutes against the Lakers, KAT dropped 40 points, and snagged 21 rebounds for his third straight double double, rounding out the night with 4 assists, a block and a steal. The one chink in his armor down the stretch would be the three turn overs in each of his last 4 games, but for a player averaging 35 minutes in that span and filling out the rest of the stat sheet as well as he has, we can overlook a little lapse in ball protection. If I was to swerve off Westbrook, I would first try and fit Towns in, especially in tournaments, then pivot to Jokic if I needed the added salary relief. You have to like the upside Towns presents for the price point.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.97 DK - 28.04
As we established already, Cousins and Davis have already been ruled out for tonight's game with the Lakers, so Alexis Ajinca should draw yet another start at the five for New Orleans. Ajinca was pretty impressive against the Warriors on Saturday dropping 17 points, grabbing 6 boards, and even dishing out an assist in 29 minutes for an almost identical performance to the one he put on against the Nuggets the night before. That's a 7X performance against two of the leagues most average defenses against opposing centers. Tonight, he hits the jackpot with the Lakers, who are among the worst of the worst defensively at the position allowing 5 more fantasy points per game than Denver and Golden State to the position. If Russ is your big money spend, Ajinca is your center. There is value to be had out there people! I'm sure more will pop up as the day goes on, so be sure to look for Austyn's update article so we can best take advantage of it.
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