Colorado Rockies' Carlos Gonzalez fouls off a pitch on the way to striking out against San Diego Padres starting pitcher James Shields in the seventh inning of a baseball game Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015, in Denver. San Diego won 10-4. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Welcome to Monday Baseball! We have 2 separate slates on our hands, starting at 1 and 7 Eastern. The Mariners-Astros game isn't on either of these, so I won't be touching on them. If you're playing an all-day slate, both offenses are in play. We have a few strong pitchers on our hands today with a couple offenses in great spots. Let's get to the top options at each position! If you have any questions or comments, feel free to comment below or join out live chat. You can also find me on Twitter @VarneyDFS.
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Early
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 27.37 DK - 18.19
Chris Sale is on this slate, so it's going to be interesting to see how ownership ends up. He still probably has the highest floor and definitely the highest ceiling, so you can obviously go there. We just think Taijuan Walker is better in terms of point per dollar. This early slate has pretty decent pitching as a whole, so I'm finding myself wanting to pay up for the most talented hitters. Walker will certainly help you do that, sitting nearly $4k cheaper than Sale. I think the D-Backs have a pretty good chance of scoring some runs against Matt Moore, as they are lethal against lefties. That should help Walker secure a win and let him pitch comfortably. The Giants are obviously a tough offense to face, ranking in the top 8 against right-handed pitching in 2016. With that being said, AT&T Park is extremely tough to hit in. It ranked dead last in 2016 in run production and home runs. Walker was a huge prospect and has shown promise and potential. In 2016, he sported an 8 K/9 with a 29% hard contact rate, which are both above average numbers. He also saw his SwStr%(Swinging Strike) rise on both his fastball and cutter, which are the pitches he relies on to close at-bats. Walker is going to have another productive season and should be in line for a pretty solid start today. Keep in mind, this is the Giants and a young pitcher. Things can definitely go awry. I will be more apt to play tournaments on this slate without any concrete pitching options.
Main
Opponent - LAD (Wood) Park - @CHC
FD - 36.19 DK - 23.76
Lester and the Cubs will host the Dodgers at Wrigley Field in what figures to be a pretty exciting series. The first game of the series should go to the Cubs, with Lester and Wood taking the mound. The Dodgers are a lethal lineup but aren't good against southpaws. They actually ranked dead last against left-handers in 2016, sporting a .275 wOBA. Logan Forsythe was the only offseason addition and he isn't a huge difference maker against lefties. Lester can be a tough guy to roster, as he is infuriating to watch with guys on-base. Luckily, he's pretty tough to get on-base against. In 2016, Lester, held a combined .255 wOBA. He backed that up with a 2.97 xFIP and a 9 K/9. He was also much better at home, sporting a .237 wOBA in Wrigley. While David Ross was Lester's personal catcher, Lester does have experience with Contreras. Lester pitched well on opening night but only made it 5 innings. Lester is a workhorse and you can generally count on 6 at a minimum with a usual 7. Against the Dodgers, I fully expect Lester to have a terrific game. He will also get plenty of run support as the Cubbies will have no problem getting to Alex Wood. Lester has a ton of upside and I would argue the safety is there as well. I expect him to be lesser-owned than DeGrom, who is cheaper and facing the Phillies. Let's take a look at him.
Opponent - PHI (Eickhoff) Park - @PHI
FD - 36.01 DK - 23.64
DeGrom had a pretty stress-free opening start, going 6 solid, 2-hit, 6 strikeout innings against the Braves. He finds himself in a better match-up with the Phillies tonight. While the Phillies seem to be pretty good against righties, the numbers tell a different story. In 2016, the Phillies ranked 2nd to last against righties, sitting just 2 decimal points ahead of the Padres with a .298 wOBA. They also held the 5th highest K rate against lefties and the 8th lowest walk rate. If DeGrom is able to hit his spots, this lineup has no chance. He was dominant last season, turning in a combined .300 wOBA backed up by a 9 K/9 and a 3.45 xFIP. The Mets should be able to score against Eickhoff and give DeGrom the lead, which I don't expect him to hand back over. While Lester does have a great match-up, so does DeGrom. Both of these guys are worth of cash games and tournament exposure, as the floor and ceiling are actually pretty similar. On DraftKings, I would definitely lean DeGrom. He's $2k cheaper, which makes absolutely no sense. Citizens Bank Park is a slight bump up for hitters but nothing drastic. The Phillies are still full of bad hitters who can't hit it out anywhere.
Early
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 1.81 DK - 1.33
Gary Sanchez would be the easy choice at catcher on the early slate, but he's on the 10-day DL. With Buster Posey seeing a tough match-up, we'll take a look at Stephen Vogt. Vogt and the A's face off with Ian Kennedy, who is a very average pitcher. While he's not horrible against lefties, he has a lot of trouble with XBH's and HR's. In 101 innings against lefties, Kennedy gave up 16 homers. He is also due for some regression against lefties, holding a 5.10 xFIP and a .248 BABIP. Vogt was pretty good against righties in 2016, sporting a .316 wOBA and a 24% line drive rate. I definitely don't think Vogt is gonna hit one out of Kaufmann Stadium, but I do think he can get on-base and hopefully knock in a few runners. He was a popular cash game play last year due to his consistency and ability hit both lefties and righties out of the bullpen. Vogt is the top option on the early slate at catcher in cash games and does make sense in tournaments as well.
Main
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @PIT
FD - 1.95 DK - 1.5
Brandon Finnegan is only as good as his changeup. If he's getting movement and slide on his CH, he's tough to hit. In most cases, it doesn't do what he wants. In turn, righties are able to sit on the fastball and tee off. He allowed a .334 wOBA to righties in 2016, to go along with his insane 27 homers allowed. Finnegan gave up the most homers in the league to righties and that's always going to be a guy I want to target in DFS. PNC Park is definitely a tough park to hit in, but it can be done. Cervelli has hit well in PNC Park for power, which is likely more of a fluke. Against lefties, however, he's far from a fluke. With a .401 wOBA against righties in 2016, Cervelli is way too cheap. He makes for a solid cash game and tournament option Cervelli did only hit 1 homer last year, so hopefully we see a few bigger swings in 2017.
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @COL
FD - 7.57 DK - 5.91
Trevor Cahill came out of the Cubs bullpen over the last 2 years. Numbers from the bullpen are ones I won't personally consider. It's an entirely different beast from preparation to game action. Cahill was atrocious against lefties prior to the last season, allowing a .405 wOBA in his last starting gig. He will head to Coors Field and take on the Rockies. While Tony Wolters isn't known to be a good hitter, he's not bad. Finishing with a .325 wOBA and a .757 OPS against lefties, WOltrs showed some promise at just 23. Coors Field has the ability to push everyone to the top and at catcher, nobody sticks out. Wolters gives you cheap Coors exposure at a position without much opportunity cost. Wolters is fine in all formats.
Early
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.07
The Diamondbacks will travel from Chase Field to AT&T Park, which is one of the biggest possible downgrades. It is a bit worrisome, but homers aren't the only way to score. Also, these 3 D-Backs we will touch on have the power to hit it out anywhere. As one of the elite hitters in the game, Goldy will have no problem with the adjustment. He gets to face a lefty and you know he has to be excited when he looks at the schedule and sees a southpaw on his way. In 2016, Goldy sported a .449 wOBA against lefties, which was easily tops in the league. His power numbers dropped last year, but he saw an increase in every other category. His power numbers should go back up as there was no peripheral that backed up his decrease in power. He did hit 16 warning track fly-balls, which could have easily gone out and turned into a big power year. Matt Moore isn't a bad pitcher, but he does struggle against righties more than lefties. With no other great options at 1B on the early slate, it will be tough for me to get off of Goldy.
Main
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.2
The Padres don't have nearly the same run expectation as the Rockies do and it makes sense. Tyler Chatwood is a lot better than Trevor Cahill and the Rockies are to better hitting team. With that being said, the Padres are still expected to score close to 5 runs. We won;t see an expectation like this for the Padres at any time outside of Coors Field. I will look to target a few of these guys as I do think they get to Chatwood and get him out of the game. While Chatwood is a pretty exciting youngster, he has a long way to go. HE gives up a lot of homers and has trouble with location on frequent occasion. He walked nearly 4 batters per 9 innings last year and can get himself into a lot of trouble when he can't locate the fastball. Wil Myers is an elite hitter and I don't care who he's facing in Coors Field. The ball jumps off this guys bat and he makes Petco Park look small. He hit 20 homers against righties to go along with his .349 wOBA. Myers also stole 28 bags last year so the versatility is real. In Coors Field, the potential for Myers is unreal. Make sure you get at least some exposure to Myers in tournaments. He will be my main option in cash and GPP's.
Opponent - LAD (Wood) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.72 DK - 7.86
When looking at 1B, you don't find any other hitter like Rizzo. He has the power and strength to be one of the biggest bats in the league, while the eye and discipline of anyone. He is extremely versatile and even faces a lefty today. In 2016, Rizzo sported a .362 wOBA against lefties in over 150 at-bats. He holds his low K rate and high walk rate against lefties, finishing the '16 campaign with a 0.69 BB/K. Standing 60 feet 6 inches will be Alex Wood. Wood hasn't pitched a full season in his entire career and his numbers against lefties are very spotty. In 2016, Wood allowed a .341 wOBA to lefties in just 14 innings. Before that, he has sported a combined .314 wOBA against the handedness. Wil Myers is still preferred here. He is in Coors Field taking on a weak righty. With that being said, Rizzo will only be a fraction of the ownership and has just as much upside as Myers. I don't hate him in cash either, but just don't think it's necessary.
Early
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 6.69 DK - 5.07
Unless you want to target Sale or Verlander, you almost have to go to Drury. He has a quality matchup with a lefty in Matt Moore, who is susceptible to righty power. Drury is a big prospect for the D-Backs and I think he's definitely the real deal. In 140 at-bats against lefties in 2016, he displayed a .336 wOBA that was backed up by terrific peripherals. He hit the ball hard nd he hit it consistently. While San Fran is a tough park to hit in, he definitely has enough power. He's also plenty cheap on both sites and you can save a few hundred off of Pedroia and Kinsler. Drury has as much upside as both and I think the Diamondbacks hit Moore pretty well. He will be right in the middle of the lineup and you can definitely expect him to have a few RBI opportunities. Go ahead and target him in both cash games and tournaments.
Main
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @COL
FD - 2.34 DK - 1.91
The Rockies are currently projected to score over 6.2 runs today, which is the highest on the year so far. While Lemahieu doesn't offer the same power as a lot of these Rockies, he's the guy who holds it all together. Against righties in 2016, Lemahieu finished with a .354 batting average and a .390 wOBA. He hits the ball hard and puts it in the right spots. He's extremely good at Coors Field as well, with a .450 wOBA against righties at home in 2016. Cahill was actually good last year with the Cubs and that's just not at all who he is. Maddon put him in favorable spots and only forced him to pitch to 2 or 3 batters. Cahill finds his trouble on the 2nd and 3rd times around, though I doubt it takes that long today. Cahill is easy to prepare for and with his off-speed stuff not moving in Coors, it could get ugly quick. Vegas sure thinks it does. LeMahieu is a prime cash game play with plenty of GPP upside. With that being said, the guy we're about to look at is my favorite GPP 2B.
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 9.14 DK - 6.54
Ryan Schimpf might be the 2nd best hitter in this lineup. He definitely is against righties. Schimpf hit the majors at 27, which is very relatively ancient for a rookie. However, he put up a .377 wOBA aginst righties, so nobody really cared about the age. He has started this year well and I think he's the real deal. He looks to have a great presence at the plate and he consistently puts the barrel on the ball. In Coors Field, I look for his ball to travel a far way. He could have a big series here and matches up well with Tyler Chatwood. Schimpf hit 87% of his homers against the fastball last year, which is really the only pitch Chatwood can lean on. He has trouble with his off-speed pitches in Coors and tends to stray from them if they don't work from the get. Schimpf is a high-upside play at 2nd and is far too cheap on FanDuel. On DK, you almost have to pay up at 2nd no matter what.
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Early
Opponent - KC (Kennedy) Park - @KC
FD - 8.72 DK - 6.68
Shortstop is absolutely atrocious on this early slate. Xander Bogaerts is expected to return, but I'm not into him against Justin Verlander. Brandon Crawford will be the other guy who gets some ownership and he is decent against Taijuan Walker. My favorite of the bunch is Marcus Semien, who hit 16 homers against righties in 2016. He has a ton of power for a shortstop and I love him on this early slate. While I hate to just go for the HR, there's nowhere else to go and when a guy is this cheap with 27-HR at SS, you have to get him in there. Kaufmann Stadium is huge and so is the Oakland Coliseum, so not much of a difference here for Semien. He is far from safe, but if you can find someone at SS who is, let me know. I'm willing to play Semien in cash here with the hope sof a big game. If he underwhelms, he's cheap and won't kill you.
Main
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @COL
FD - 11.15 DK - 8.61
With Trea Turner questionable to play, the position takes a huge dip after Story. Sitting at the top of the pricing tier on both FD and DK, Story is really expensive. He's also worth it. This is a guy who sported a league-high 55% hard contact rate at home last season. He mashed righties with a .369 wOBA to go along with his insane batted ball rates. He also hit 18 homers off of right-handers and 10 of them came at home. Trevor Cahill, as discussed multiple times, is no good. He's been effective as a reliever, which is a whole different ballgame. In Coors Field, you can 100% expect him to struggle. The Padres also have one of the league's worst bullpens, so they won't do much to stop the bleeding. The Rockies are a team you will want exposure to and Story is a big piece of the puzzle.
Opponent - LAD (Wood) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.45 DK - 6.29
Addison has been bouncing around the lineup to start the season, consistently being somewhere between 4 and 6. Joe Maddon is a big fan of Russell and the spark he brings the lineup. In 2016, he hit lefties to the tune of a .343 wOBA and a .239 BABIP. His numbers against lefties will go up this year as he gets better and runs into some better luck. Wood, while not horrible against righties, has struggled historically against them. While the numbers last year suggest Wood can dominate righties, it was the only stretch of 40 innings where he has ever shown that. With a .343 wOBA in 142 innings the year before, I think last year was a fluke. Wood definitely has the "stuff" to pitch well. He has a sharp fastball with some nice off-speed pitches. Th problem is he can't locate anything. He falls behind in the count and will be forced to try to claw his way back. Guys like Bryant, Rizzo, and Russell are all capable of making him pay in 1 pitch. Russell doesn't have the Coors Field appeal but he's cheaper and has plenty of upside.
Early
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @KC
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.19
Like every other position on this early slate, there are only a few ways to go here at third. Moustakas is by far my favorite at the position and he's great in both cash games and tournaments. Moustakas has been great against righties when healthy, though that doesn't happen too much. 2015 was his last fully healthy season, when he put up a career-high .819 OPS. Against righties, he sported a .353 wOBA. Jharel Cotton, a youngster who only throws 3 pitches, is going to struggle against lefties. With that being said, he does have a promising 29% K rate in the minors. His walk numbers match and he can have a hard time staying in the zone. The Royals are a patient team and I expect them to get to Cotton early. Moustakas is cheap on both sites and is a great option in both cash and tournaments.
Main
Opponent - LAD (Wood) Park - @CHC
FD - 11.69 DK - 8.7
Outside of Clayton Kershaw, there's not a single lefty in this league with an advantage on Kris Bryant. Bryant is right up there with the best in the game against lefties. Last season, Bryant sported a .438 wOBA to go along with a 40% hard contact rate and a 25% line drive rate. He hits the ball extremely hard against lefties and tends to have a bit more power against them as well. While there looks to be a little wind in Wrigley tonight, we don't which way it will be blowing. Wrigley Field is a park heavily influenced by wind direction and speed. Make sure to eep an eye out on twitter for news up to lock. We've touched on Alex Wood plenty and there isn't anything else to say. He's a guy who is hurt 80% of the time and is then pretty average for the 20%, while building up hype for the next 80% of the year, where he's on the DL. Wood will see his first start of the year against the Cubs, who should put him in a body bag. Bryant is the top option at 3B in both cash games and tournaments. I do think a lot of people will go Nolan Arenado and it's obviously a good play. I just like Bryant a tad bit more, especially in tournaments with ownership taken account for.
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 8.99 DK - 6.7
Solarte is probably the worst cleanup hitter in baseball. While he's a pretty good all-around hitter, he's not a 4. Either way, that's where he's gonna be, so it doesn't really matter. Sitting in the 4 spot, Solarte gets a ton of RBI opportunities. In Coors Field, you can certainly expect that to continue.Solarte is a switch hitter and hits righties better than he does lefties, with a .337 wOBA since 2015. FanDuel is the spot to get Solarte. He's $1500 cheaper over there and the ownership will probably be insane. In tournaments, take a shot and go to Bryant. There's not much else to say about the match-up with Chatwood. He's a bit of an unknown still and it will be interesting to see how he handles this porous lineup in such a lethal ballpark.
Early
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @KC
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.01
We just talked about the Royals and this match-up against the youngster Jharel Cotton. Alex Gordon is a guy who often flys under the radar, though he is a fantastic outfielder, in both the box and the field. Gordon did struggle on the surface against righties in 2016, but a .280 BABIP could be to blame. In 2015, he held a .350 wOBA against right-handers. Look for him to return to that number this season and up his power a bit. He's far too cheap on FanDuel at just $2700 and is a great way to go in cash games. He's a very steady bat and will almost never disappoint. Even when Gordon has a bad game, he's knocking in a run or walking and scoring. This Royals offense is a tough one to get through and Gordon has a lot to do with it. Whether you think Cotton will be effective or not, there aren't many pitchers to target on this early slate. Cotton is definitely one of the worst and the Royals should give him some early trouble.
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 8.98 DK - 7.44
A.J. Pollock is REALLY GOOD. He was hurt all of last year and I think a lot of people might have forgotten about how good he is. He was in the top 5 in MVP voting in 2015. Against lefties, Pollock sported a .379 wOBA on top of a 35% hard contact rate. He hit 20 homers, stole 39 bases, and drove in 76 runs. He has started this season well and I don't expect him to slow down at all. Matt Moore is a left-hander that gives up hard contact to righties. Moore, when pitching well, is very tough to hit. He has a good fastball and a couple off-speed pitches that move well. When pitching bad, he's wild (3.27 BB/9) and extremely hittable. When he gets down in the count, he tends to groove fastballs in hopes of an easy strike. Against these D-Backs, they have the green light. Pollock is way too cheap on DraftKings and fairly priced on FanDuel.
Main
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.7 DK - 8.03
Opponent - CIN (Finnegan) Park - @PIT
FD - 9.75 DK - 8.4
This one was a no-brainer. Brandon Finnegan gave up the most HR's in the league to righties last season and has to face one of the most lethal lefty killer combos in the league. When these guys are hitting well, they are both top 10 hitters against lefties. McCutchen, who might be worse at this point, sported a .367 wOBA against lefties over the past 3 seasons. He's still a tremendous hitter and one I'm willing to target against lefties. Marte, who is one of the most underappreciated players in the MLB, hits lefties well. In 2016, he finished with a .320 wOBA and a 33% hard contact rate. Both of these guys can steal bags as well, though that's less of a factor against a lefty. McCutchen is a little cheaper across the industry, so he makes a bit more sense in cash games. In tournaments, I say you combo them with Cervelli and David Freese. Finnegan has the potential to give up 4 homers and that's how you win a tournament.
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @COL
FD - 12 DK - 8.92
Opponent - SD (Cahill) Park - @COL
FD - 11.64 DK - 9.57
We will go ahead and touch on another duo here in CarGo and Charlie Blackmon. First things first, go ahead and plug in CarGo on FanDuel. That price is stupid for the situation. On DraftKings, these guys are both much tougher to fit in. Sitting at over $5k, DraftKings forces you to sacrifice elsewhere if you want to target Coors. It just might be worth it tonight. Both Blackmon and Gonzalez have crazy splits against righties. As for Cargo, he hit righties to a .409 wOBA at home. He has a ton of HR potential and can send 2 out on any given night. As for Blackmon, he's a cleaner hitter who aims for the gaps. In 2016, he held a .405 wOBA against righties and also swiped nearly 20 bases. Blackmon is a bit safer than CarGo but both are in play everywhere. Trevor Cahill is going to struggle here and both of these guys will be a big reason why.
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View Comments
I would be careful targeting Finnegan. He didn't start throwing the aforementioned changeup until August 20th last year. From that point forward, 7 starts, he had a 1.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 11.3 K/9. Add in last Wednesday's 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 9 K performance, and that's a guy I'm going to shy away from.
Don't necessarily disagree with him being good but I don't think he's there yet. He still held a 4.63 xFIP from August on and saw his BABIP drop below .270. Could be real but could also be small sample size and batters not being able to watch film on his new pitch.
Hey guys, it looks like the Padres have changed their starting pitcher to Jarred Cosart. He's just as bad and everyone is still in play.