Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) goes in for a dunk against the Chicago Bulls during the first half of an NBA basketball game in Chicago, on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2015. (AP Photo/Jeff Haynes)
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Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 68.59 DK - 72.46
Discount time, baby! Westbrook is still about as expensive as I can ever remember a fantasy player being, and he's coming fresh off of an incredibly disappointing performance in a great match-up with Phoenix... but still. THIS might be the last time I'm willing to play Westbrook this season thanks primarily to Denver being the literal best match-up for opposing point guards this season. I get that Phoenix was the 2nd best match-up for opposing point guards, and we're fresh off him being a huge disappointment on these prices, but on a night where good savings abound I suspect he'll creep back into the top cash game line-ups once again. No one could blame you for fading him in big tournaments, though, as paying off supreme value on these prices is awfully tough.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 28.58 DK - 31.31
One of the biggest questions on Friday night was where people were going to take their punts, and Murray was certainly a part of that discussion. We happened to get our share of Murray on DraftKings (yay!) but didn't get a cut on FanDuel (boo!), and went off for almost exactly 10x points per dollar in an admittedly great match-up with New Orleans. I don't think we can count on him to put up 40 points from the field in anything less than a perfect match-up simply because he isn't an expert shot creator, but he should be in a pretty reasonable position here against the offense-first Westbrook. Nelson has already been ruled out of Sunday's game, so we're all systems go on Murray on all sites in all formats.
Also considered: The tireless Tyler Ulis, who is still playing insane minutes, and probably has a pretty decent floor. There are certainly other interesting upside plays as well - Ricky Rubio against the Lakers could have huge upside, and so could D'Angelo Russell squaring off against him. I'll play Westbrook and Murray for cash games, though.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 29.23 DK - 31.11
Harris is getting pretty expensive at this point, but the uncertainty around the wing for Denver has Harris both playing big minutes and taking more shots than usual. He's playing a 37-41 minute rotation and taking 14 or so shots per game - both well above his season averages. He hasn't been a lock to pay off on these prices necessarily, but he's actually been more reliable than you think when the game script has played to his strengths (i.e., Denver hasn't been getting blown out). The Nuggets are favored by 4.5 here, so that shouldn't be too much of a problem. It's not a fantastic match-up with Oladipo here, but Roberson's likely absence means Oladipo will be shouldering a larger defensive burden than usual. I don't see Harris repeating his 40 fantasy point performance, but I expect him to pay about what our projection system has him for - about 5x points per dollar.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 29.7 DK - 31.51
I didn't think I'd say this, but Oladipo is kind of a poor man's Gary Harris from a fantasy perspective at this point. He does a lot of the same things Harris does, except his minutes aren't secure and he hasn't been as good on a points per dollar basis. So why even include him here? The match-up. For all the nice things I can say about Gary Harris' offensive contributions this season, Denver has been legendarily bad against guards of all strikes this season. While I expect Westbrook to create chaos in this game, I think Denver's sloppy rotations should leave Oladipo open for his new role as a luxurious catch and shoot option. One never knows when Mr. Westbrook will just decide to go HAM and ruin his teammates' fun, but I think Oladipo makes for a reasonable cash game option if you decide you want two mid-range options tonight.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 57.67 DK - 62.57
I am not sure if you'll be able to go up and get Harden and Westbrook tonight, and Harden comes with his own share of risk thanks to the incredible disparity in the quality of these teams. Vegas has this as just a 9.5 spread at this point, but that could be based on simple speculation of certain players sitting. Sacramento has been a sieve against opposing shooting guards this season, allowing the 2nd fantasy points per game total to them. This also helps Eric Gordon for our cash game purposes as well. At this point in the season I don't need to give you the case for Harden from a statistical perspective - he's running the point, active on the boards, and a full on scoring machine. The only thing that can stand in the way of a huge game here is not playing huge minutes, and I think Harden is a fantastic play for big tournaments where Westbrook should be much more highly owned.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 31.67 DK - 33.47
So I haven't pointed this out just yet, but a lot of picking guys this time of year is making selections on teams where their games matter. The bad teams (like the Mavs) will randomly just sit people at half time, and the good teams seem to just want to keep their guys' legs fresh. Denver is one of the precious few teams that's actually playing for something, and they're leaning very heavily on Gallinari to come up with offensive production. He had shot an average of 17 times in the 3 games prior to the blowout of the Pelicans, well up from his season averages. I'm also pretty happy with the idea of him going up against Doug McDermott if that comes to bear, but really, I'm just happy to get a guy who A) plays a lot of minutes, B) plays a big role in his team's offense, and C) plays for a team with something on the line. Very high floor play here in my opinion.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 35.77 DK - 37.59
The Twins aren't exactly playing for anything here, but that's been true for weeks, and that hasn't stopped Thibs from rolling Wiggins out there for absurd minutes. Like Gallo, I think we get a good amount of safety on Wiggins' price thanks to his consistent minutes and active role in his team's offense. Wiggins is pretty much priced appropriately at this point in the season, so I don't think you're exactly getting away with anything by playing him here, but getting a guy who's priced appropriately in a match-up against a team that's openly tanking (and has allowed the 4th most fantasy points to opposing small forwards in the first place) seems like an excellent spot to snag a little high floor value.
Keep an eye on the situation with the Mavericks. As of this writing Harrison Barnes has already been ruled out, and this presents a great opportunity for somebody to move in and put up some numbers. It's weird, because Barnes has played literally every single game this season. I'm not that enthusiastic about a Dorian-Finney Smith appearance? But I'll be monitoring closely before making any definitive calls here.
For the early slate: LeBron is the pretty clear big money option du jour.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 28.28 DK - 30.19
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 21.45 DK - 23.4
The cheap, high upside crew. Labissiere has been very up and down since he became somewhat fantasy relevant, but that's largely been a question of opportunity rather than what he's done when he's actually on the court. He's a points per minute beast who should have a reasonable opportunity to clean up the glass against a Rockets team that has a pretty weird situation going on at power forward and center right now. As for Dudley, he's emerged as a jack of all trades for the Suns, putting up stats across basically all fantasy relevant categories and playing a 33-34 minute rotation. He looks like a terrific play for cash games, with serious upside for big tournaments as well. The match-up with Dallas is a complete unknown at this point since we don't know what personnel will be on the court, so just take this as a price/opportunity mismatch.
A state of the union for the position elsewhere
I haven't seen a position this riddled with questionable plays an uncertainty in a while, so let's dive into the pros and cons of a few different plays.
Nikola Jokic could very well be the most consistent big money play on the slate. Denver wants a W, and everything I wrote about all the other Nuggets tonight goes triple for him. Foul trouble could be his downfall, but if he stays on the court, you can expect some huge numbers. I'm just not sure it's where you want to be in your big money slots, particularly when you have pretty good punt options here.
Gorgui Dieng would have been a lock of a mid-range power forward option, but I'm awfully concerned about him randomly losing his minutes again last game. If we get word that that was some sort of aberration, I'll be back on the Dieng train for sure.
Julius Randle has potential, but his game log looks a lot like Jared Dudley's, but $2,000 more expensive. Still, you have to figure his minutes are likely a little more reliable.
Larry Nance is another guy who could play 30+ minutes or 20 depending on his coach's whims, but still deserves a look in all formats.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.51 DK - 29.36
Uh? The announcement came out that Boban was going to play around 20 minutes, and he wound up being 50%+ owned in double ups. And, well, he played 27 minutes and put up FORTY FOUR fantasy points. He put up a 27/12 line that has many people (including me) wondering how this guy can't play minutes on an NBA roster. I guess defense? But even as a rich man's Enes Kanter, isn't he worth a look? I don't know. All I know is that if he is going to play similar minutes, he's basically a mandatory own in double-ups, and I won't be fading him for cash games either.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 50.23 DK - 52.31
Or you could go in the complete opposite direction? Man, for a short slate there is really no lack of great big money options tonight. Towns put up a solid 32/9 in 41 minutes in agame with the Lakers a couple weeks ago, and he pretty much seems to be a 50 fantasy point a game player at this point. The Wolves haven't been shy about trotting their young centerpiece out there for 40 minutes a game. The Lakers have been epically bad against opposing centers this season, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points per game to them, and I can't imagine going up against a force of nature like Towns is high on their list of interests this late in the season. If we can't go full Boban tonight, Towns might be the only other option I'm interested in.
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