Milwaukee Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo drives against Charlotte Hornets' Jeremy Lamb during an NBA basketball game Saturday, March 26, 2016, in Milwaukee. (AP Photo/Aaron Gash)
It's Crunch time! The final full week of the regular season is coming to a close, and there is still a lot to be determined. We have three games on the early slate, with the Celtics fighting to climb to the top of the conference, the Hornets fighting to have plans next weekend, and the Bulls and Pacers holding on ever so tightly to the final playoff spots. Then in the five game main slate, the Heat are a heartbeat away, Portland is trying to win their way in and the Clippers are looking to solidify home court in the first round. There's a lot to consider, so let's get to the picks!!!
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Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 38.93 DK - 41.43
Kemba Walker is playing some of the most inspired ball of his career down the stretch. He struggled a bit last time out against Goran Dragic and the Heat, but leading in to that game, he was riding a seven game run where he was scoring 28.7 points, and 4.6 threes per game. It's looking unlikely that Charlotte is going to make the playoffs, but they are still mathematically in it, so look for Kemba to keep firing the rock which should come easily against the Celtics who are allowing nearly 3% more scoring than average to the position. The peripherals are down a little, but with Walker paying 5X or better in 5 of the last 7 games, I have plenty of trust in his shooting to more than make up for it. This game is coming in early with a 1 point spread and should very well be a shootout with both teams in must win situations.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 37.14 DK - 39.57
There's quite a lot to love about point guard on the early slate. The Pacers currently hold the 8 spot that Charlotte is fighting for. Jeff Teague hasn't been the player Kemba Walker has been leading in to these final games, but for the discounted price he certainly is worthy of consideration. Tonight the Pacers travel in to Orlando, for what has been one of the most generous match ups for opposing point guards this season. The Magic are allowing 4% more assists, 3% more rebounds and nearly 3% more points at the position this season, and with the Pacers needing every win they can get from here on out, look for Teague to see big minutes and big opportunity.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 33.9 DK - 36.39
Jeremy Lin has really come around this past month after a slow return to form coming back from a hamstring injury earlier in the season which has provided some spark to the Nets and surely plays a part in the Nets going 6-4 in their last 10 games. Lin has paid value at this price in 4 of his last 7 games, in just under 19 minutes of play per game. The Bulls may be trying to hold on to their playoff hopes, but they're still among the bottom third when it comes to match ups for opposing point guards. The Nets don't seem to be looking to go away quietly, and will be more than happy to play spoiler if given the chance, and will need a big game from Lin to make that happen.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 28.21 DK - 30.24
There isn't quite as much to love on the main slate at the point, but for cash games, we can look to T.J. McConnell. Timothy John presents us with an element of safety, as a player that has regularly paid 5X fantasy points per dollar on his salary lately. McConnell is a true point guard, and contributes to all aspects of the game, as evidenced by his hitting double digit totals in at least one offensive catgory in 5 of his last six games. With Sergio Rodriguez on the Shelf for several games now McConnell has been locked in to minutes at the low to mid thirties, and though Milwaukee is a tougher opponent to opposing point guards, McConnell should find enough ways to stuff his stat sheet to satisfy those that lock him into their line ups.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 30.12 DK - 32.19
The Cavaliers lost Friday's game against the Hawks, which means a win today for the Celtics will put them within a half game of the top spot in the east with 2 to go. All they have to do is beat the Hornets, who will come in to the game needing a win just as bad. Avery Bradley missed a couple of games due to illness and has been slow to return to form. He was a dud in his first game back against the Cavs, and looked somewhat better Thursday in a loss to the Hawks. In that game he went 6 of 19 from the field, scoring 17 points, with 4 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal. Due to the missed games and sub par performances, we are getting AB at a discount, coming in $500 cheaper on FanDuel than he was just two weeks ago. This game may well come down to the final buzzer and I expect Bradley to be out there for at least 35 minutes if not more trying to help the Celtics to the win.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 32.09 DK - 34.53
On the other side of that match up, is Nicolas Batum. There isn't much more I can say about the match up, Boston for what it's worth is much tougher defensively on opposing twos, but this will be a tightly contested game, and both teams should be lighting the boards on fire so I'm not overly concerned with that. Keep an eye on Marco Belineli's status, as if he misses the game, it could lead to Batum splitting those minutes with Jeremy Lamb, adding to his upside. Batum performed well against the Heat on Wednesday, putting up 24 points, snagging 3 baords, and handing out 7 assists, and like Bradley, is coming in at a significant discount compared to just a couple of weeks ago.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 49.42 DK - 52.03
The freak is far and away the best way to spend up on the main slate and I will be building most of my lineups around him this evening. The Bucks are riding a three game skid in to this game, and while currently locked in to the sixth seed in the east, their playoff aspirations are anything but secure. Tonight they travel in to Philly to face a Sixers squad that will have no answer for Giannis. Alphabet has put together solid outings in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging 24.5 points, 11 rebounds, and 6.s assists in that span. While this one could get out of hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see ABC fill up the stat sheet early, with the potential to put up a monster game if the young Sixers team find a way to stay competitive.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 52.24 DK - 54.17
The Bulls currently sit in the number 7 seed tied with the Pacers for the final 2 spots in the east, with the Heat, and to a lesser but still possible extent, the Hornets and the Pistons breathing down their neck. Chicago is going to need everything Jimmy Buckets has going down the stretch. Today they travel in to the Barclays Center to face off with a Nets team that is finally starting to show a pulse in the final few weeks of the season. Despite their recent run of wins this is still Brooklyn we are talking about and they are still the most generous team there is at the three. I don't have an early line on this game but one would have to think the potential for it to get out of hand is well within the realm of possibilities, which may have me holding Butler to tournaments, but on a 3 game slate, I may very well lock him in to my cash contests as well.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 23.85 DK - 24.81
MKG is another guy who stands to benefit if Marco Belineli's finger keeps him out today. Kidd-Gilchrist is one of those guys who just doesn't score very much, very often, but his defensive game and his relaxed salary combine to make him DFS relevant. Then when he does manage to do some scoring, it's a train ride to upside city!! In two of his last 4 games he was able to put up double digit scoring performances, but this might not be one of those games, as boston is allowing 3% less scoring to the position. Even so, we still have to love his chances on a short slate with a sub 5K salary.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.82 DK - 34.25
Khris Middleton looked like he was about to go on a real tear, putting up stellar performances against the Celtics and Pistons to close out March, but as soon as the calendar flipped to April, he cooled off, most recently running in to foul trouble with the Pacers, fouling out with a 10/3/4 lines and 2 steals. I'm rolling the dice on him bouncing back to March form tonight against the Sixers. While on the season the Sixers come off as one of the ten toughest match ups at the three, that was with Robert Covington. Over their last 5 games, they're the second generous defense at the position, allowing 13 more FanDuel points than their season per game average. It's a great spot for Middleton. I fully expect him to take advantage of it and I will have exposure to him everywhere.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 33 DK - 34.64
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 25.69 DK - 26.82
These two will go up against each other, and while Orlando has already been eliminated, Aaron Gordon has been playing some inspired ball as of late, ever since moving over to power forward, he's just been a player on a whole different level. Two of his six double doubles this season came in 2 of his last four games. Thad Young meanwhile has taken on more of a role since Al Jefferson has gone down. He's double doubled in 2 straight games, averaging 34 minutes of playing time, paying nearly 6.5X. Orlando is a bottom ten defense against the position, and Young is coming in so cheap you have to love his chances for upside. I'll have exposure to both of these guys in cash games, with plenty of Young in tournaments as well.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 53.75 DK - 56.36
The early returns from the system love Anthony Davis tonight, but I'm going to limit this recommendation to a tournament only play. Davis played only 24 minutes against Denver last night, and while that has me thinking there's a strong chance he may play tonight against the Warrirors, who have nothing to play for, having the conference locked up at this point, I'm not convinced Davis sees over thirty minutes a game from this point on. The Pelicans have nothing left to fight for, having already been eliminated so there's a strong chance they lighten his load from here on out. That said, if he does manage to see 30-35 minutes of play against the Warriors bench, he could be looking at a 6X performance even at this salary. Keep an eye out for who's starting and who's resting in this one. If it looks like a favorable spot for the brow then lock and load.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 33.07 DK - 35.23
While the Wizards have little to gain sending Markieff Morris out there on that ankle with the Southeast division already locked up, James Johnson and the Miami Heat, have everything to gain in a game they must win to keep their hopes at making the postseason alive. Johnson has been feasting in the starting 5 and should continue to ride with the starters from here on out. Over his last 4 games his minutes have increased steadily from 27 to 38, last time out against the Raptors, he double doubled, finishing the night 22/10/3/2/3 but turning the rock over 4 times. As long as he continues to start and see starters minutes, he is coming in completely under-priced and is an excellent play in all formats especially against a Wizards team missing their starting power forward.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 26.32 DK - 27.26
Coming in at less than 5K, Zeller doesn't need to do very much to get us to value and should have about 30 minutes to do so. Zeller has paid value in 2 of his last 4 games, and is another player whose salary is coming in significantly cheaper than it was in mid to late March. The Celtics are rather weak defending the five, allowing 1% more scoring, 3% more rebounds and 7% more assists to the position. Charlotte's going to need a complete game out of the whole starting five if they want to walk away with the W, I can see a case for Zeller in all formats, certainly safe and their is clear potential there for 6X upside.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 25.26 DK - 26.29
A little sibling rivalry on the early. Robin Lopez wants to get to the playoffs, and today he has to go through his twin brother Brook to get there. While BroLo may be the splashier of the Lopez boys, averaging nearly 10 more fantasy points per game, RoLo does present opportunity, coming in significantly cheaper, and from a defensive standpoint, Brook and the Nets allow 4% more points and 7% more assists than league average at the position giving Robin a chance to post double digit points and round out his peripherals enough to make value.
Opponent - GS
Proj Pts FD - 49.57 DK - 52.89
Boogie was held out last night after seeing over 35 minutes in 4 straight games, and falls in to similar status as Anthony Davis above. While, he could be a phenomenal play if he suits up, and faces a Warriors team that will probably go to the bench very early on, if not resting their starters altogether, at this point in the season, his status is up in the air. Cousins has been performing at All Star levels recently, as evidenced by his price climbing back over 10K on both sites for the first time in nearly a month, finally figuring out where he fits in on the Pelicans squad alongside Davis. He's double doubled in 4 straight, socring over 30 points in two of those games, and coming just an assist shot of a triple double against Denver on Tuesday. This is another one where we have to wait and see, but if Boogie plays, play Boogie.
Let's hope Cousins plays. Because after him center gets pretty dicey on the main slate. You can consider Greg Monroe against the Sixers, but he's struggled ever since Malcolm Brogdon has been out. Hassan Whiteside and Marcin Gortat go up against each other. DeAndre Jordan is a nice play over on DraftKings, but I'm not a fan of the FanDuel price. Then it's all downhill from there.
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View Comments
DeMarcus Cousins (Achilles), Anthony Davis (knee), and E'Twaun Moore (ankle) all ruled OUT for Pelicans Saturday. Comments?
Durant is back no minutes limit so maybe a flier in gpps. There's a lot of minutes out there for N.O. The game should be over by the third. Holiday could be used in cash and gpp due to his minutes/floor/ceiling and usage bump compared to price. Livingston can also be considered for many of the same reasons as Holiday but with lack of high price players to pay up for may not be needed. Others with huge minutes should be Hill, Cunningham and Crawford with Crawford being the big potential guy BUT I am only giving input not PICKS. Use advice at own risk
Great advice Matt.
How do we not mention Rudy Gobert vs a non existent Portland interior defense?