Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 4/8/16

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Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner FD 11900 DK 12500
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SD
FD - 42.79 DK - 28.21
I'm writing this after putting in late slate lineups on Friday, and I have to say that trying to pick among the pitchers there has me needing a shower (editor's note - that was actually before Wheeler and Liriano both lit my hopes on fire). It's a funny thing with DFS pitching, particularly on FanDuel, because the way scoring works is that we very often just want to pay up if we have a top tier guy in a reasonable match-up in an OK park. Well, today we have something much, much more than that. Bumgarner finished last season 13th in xFIP and 9th in K%, looked phenomenal in his opening day start, is pitching in the best pitcher's park in the majors, and is facing a team that was 2nd in the majors in K% against LHP last season. That's what we in the industry call "checking all the boxes," my friend. Expect Bumgarner to be heavily owned in all formats tomorrow, and for good reason. He's got the floor you're looking for and the ceiling you dream of, even if he is a bit expensive.

Michael Wacha FD 6600 DK 7100
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @STL
FD - 31.44 DK - 20.62
For those of you inclined to go a little deeper, I present to you Mr. Michael Wacha. He won't be a cash game consideration on FanDuel (where you only play 1 pitcher), but he should probably be on your radar on DraftKings. 2016 was pretty forgettable for the hard-throwing right hander, but our projection system thinks we'll see something of a return to the healthier, 2015 version. It's important to remember that injuries in baseball work a lot differently than other sports. Nagging injuries frequently don't sideline players, instead causing them to keep running out there at sub-optimal performance levels. Given that Wacha is only 25 and had two excellent seasons prior to last, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt here. As for the Reds, they're basically a league average match-up for opposing right handers at this stage, and were even worse on the road. Their .303 road wOBA last season was the 6th worst in the majors. I think there's some chance that this is the cheapest we see Wacha for the rest of the season, and this early? I'm willing to take the risk.

Dallas Keuchel FD 8600 DK 9200
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @HOU
FD - 34.66 DK - 22.77
Keuchel is like a slightly richer man's version of Wacha in that he was better than Wacha 2 years ago when they were both good, and better than him last year when they were both considerably worse. Keuchel doesn't necessarily have age on his side here, but there's an argument to be made that some bad BABIP luck had the cascading effect of hurt the rest of his peripherals as well. The underlying numbers weren't awful for him last year, and the 57% ground ball rate is still super-elite. A 3.55 xFIP is really quite good, and some better luck in the ERA department would have boosted his win total as well. I suspect Keuchel will see even more love from our optimizer in truly good match-ups, of which this really isn't. The Royals didn't really hit last season (3rd worst road wOBA and 3rd worst against RHP), but they can be pretty tough to strike out, limiting Keuchel's upside a bit. If I'm desperate for the savings I could consider playing him cash games, but when push comes to shove I'll probably just go Bumgarner.

What to do with Clayton Kershaw? FanDuel and DraftKings are begging you to play the guy at $10k, but this really is the case of the unstoppable force (Kershaw) vs. the immovable object (Coors). If anyone can spin a gem in Coors it's him, but the rate that Coors depresses Ks is, well, depressing. I can't quite wrap my mind around this one just yet, but Kershaw is definitely in play for me tonight.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3100 DK 5200
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.58 DK - 7.11
The Sanchize took the league by storm last season, posting an absurd 1.032 OPS and 20 homers in just 229 plate appearances. He's batting second in a potent Yankees lineup, and the disparity in pricing from FanDuel to DraftKings is a real head scratcher. You just don't see upside like this from the catcher position very often, and particularly at these prices. It's worth pointing out that Sanchez was also considerably better against right handed pitching last season, though some portion of that could certainly be a little bit of running hot. His .143 BABIP against lefties suggests that will regress to the mean, leaving us with a more balanced player. At the very least, though, Sanchez did not get anywhere near dominated by righties, leaving him in a pretty good spot against Kevin Gausman. Gausman himself is a solid young pitcher, but a good price and a good park here has me likely to just roll Sanchez and not worry too much about it.

Victor Martinez FD 2800 DK 3700
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @DET
FD - 9.72 DK - 7.17
There will be a time when V-Mart isn't underpriced at $2,800, but I don't think we're there just yet. Yes, Martinez's skills will likely to continue to decline as he ages, but he's still batting cleanup on a team with bats to spare, and that matters as much (or more) than his actual abilities as a hitter at this point. Today he'll be up against the left handed Eduardo Rodriguez, whose propensity to leave balls up in the air has put a hard ceiling on his ability to prevent the opposing team from scoring runs in spite of his reasonable K:BB rates. Martinez has also been about .017 wOBA points better against southpaws for his career. I think Martinez is a solid if unexciting option for double-ups, particularly given the price.

Also considered: Yasmani Grandal, just for Coors reasons and upside. Bad pitcher match-up though, so I'm not over the moon or anything.

First Base

Brandon Belt FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SD
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.11
Brandon Belt single handedly crushed my early Friday lineup dreams, but I didn't even realize that before I picked him for this article. Early season heroics aside, Belt showed dramatic improvement in most the areas we could have hoped for last season, flirting with a .400 OBP while lowering his K% and raising his BB%. Good stuff! The thing that never quite came together was his supposed game changing power, but with a couple of early season home runs, maybe he's turning that corner as well? Sure, this is a bad park to hit in, but since Belt's main strength is simply getting on base, I think that hurts him less than other more power-centric first basemen. Jhoulys Chacin got positively buried in his opening start this season, and while I suspect he'll average better than -11 fantasy points per game going forward, he has to be considered a plus match-up for the left handed Belt. Love this guy for all formats.

Miguel Cabrera FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @DET
FD - 11.66 DK - 8.49
Cabrera doesn't seem to get the same recognition he did 4 years ago, but all the guy did last season was put up 38 home runs and a .399 wOBA. The man can still hit a baseball with the best of them, and while he was better against RHP last season, his career numbers paint a different picture. Eduardo Rodriguez is really a perfect match-up for him, as well. He has strikeout stuff, but as I mentioned in V-Mart's write-up, his mistakes tend to be up in the zone. Sometimes those land in the gloves of outfielders, but sometimes they go flying over the outfielders' heads into the seats behind them. I like Cabrera as a much higher upside option than Belt if you happen to be deciding between the two.

Also considered: Freddie Freeman and Jose Abreu.

Second Base

Ben Zobrist FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - MIL (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.34
It's funny, we've been writing about Zobrist for years as a guy who was ready to break out and put up some serious counting stats if he got put in the right position, and what do you know? He seemed to land there last season with the Cubs. Zobrist walked 3% more than he struck out (!), no small feat for a guy who doesn't really strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers on the basis of his power. He's also been about .050 OPS points better against left handed pitching over the course of his career. And now is the time I get to gloat about Tommy Milone. I'm proud to say that our projection system has been ready for him to go full potato since the moment he set foot in the major leagues, and his lack of strikeout stuff finally came calling last year to the tune of a 5.71 ERA. I don't think it improves for him in his age 30 season, and I'm digging a little Cubs stack today.

Robinson Cano FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.17
Cano's power explosion last season doesn't look sustainable to me, but that doesn't mean he can't pay off these FanDuel prices and then some in the meantime. You're getting a 39 homer 100+ R 100+ RBI guy for $3,100 against the right handed Ricky Nolasco, who hasn't been good since 2008 or so. Cano sort of reminds me of Sanchez, here - this just isn't production you can expect to see from a second baseman. I get that this is a bad park and all, but he seemed to do just fine in Safeco last season, which is arguably worse. I'm fine with Cano in any format.

Matt Carpenter FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @STL
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.22
It's weird to put a second baseman who almost touched a .900 OPS and bats at the top of his team's lineup 3rd, but man, 2nd base is just deep tonight. By now you'll know that Carpenter has bulldozed opposing right handers over the course of his career, posting a .860 OPS and a .389 OBP. I also think Bronson Arroyo is sort of a weird inclusion on a major league roster at this point in his career. The last time he appeared in the majors was 2014, and he was utterly horrible, striking out a dismal 4.92(!) batters per 9 innings, and dodging complete disaster only by a random uptick in his GB%. I love a Cardinals stack today, and think Carpenter is a great play in any format.

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Shortstop

Aledmys Diaz FD 3100 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Arroyo) Park - @STL
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.3
Diaz more than delivered on his promising 2015 AAA campaign thanks to his excellent approach at the plate translating pretty seamlessly from the minors to the majors. The 13% K to 8.9% BB rate is simply an excellent ratio by any standards, and the deal is sweetened considerably when you place him in the front end of a potent Cardinals lineup. I'm also happy to just pile on for extra Cardinals wherever I can get them here, and will relish watching Diaz and company chase Arroyo from the game nice and early. We don't know much Arroyo we're going to get this season, guys, so let's make the most of it!

Addison Russell FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - MIL (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.86 DK - 6.59
So, shortstop is pretty damned bad today. Russell is off to a cold start, but he's batting 5th on a team that can really hit against a guy who generally pitches batting practice. I'm still waiting for him to turn into the prospect we were promised, but for what he lacks in real life hitting skills, there's still plenty of upside here. The 21 home runs he hit last season tied him for 8th at the position, and home runs on the Cubs tend to mean more for fantasy purposes than they do elsewhere thanks to the OBP machines that bat in front of him. He seems like a very reasonable way to get away from this position cheaply.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - MIL (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.12
Some thought Bryant would turn into a reverse platoon guy after his rookie year, but he quieted that speculation by putting up an OPS .170 points higher against left handed pitching than RHP last season. His absurd .327 ISO speaks to the 80 power we were promised when he was in the minors, and at his young age, it's not unreasonable to think there might even be room for more. And you know what's good for young guys who can absolutely butcher the ball? Left handers who through 88 MPH. I'll take a whole helping of Bryant tonight, and I'll eat yours too if you happen to get full.

Wilmer Flores FD 2500 DK 3100
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.66 DK - 6.5
Jose Reyes FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.07 DK - 6.75
But, hey, everyone is going to play Kris Bryant, and he's still a mortal. If you find yourself wanting to cut against the grain a little bit, I'm kind of talking myself into one of the Mets options for big tournaments. We'll start with Reyes - he does not have the traditional power profile you're hoping for from 3B for sure, but I still think he has speed to spare, and he should have reasonable run upside if he keeps batting at the top of the Mets order. Really, though, you get into the Jose Reyes business because the cheap price allows you to pay up elsewhere and cut against the more typical plays tonight. As for Flores, he's batting clean-up in a favorable platoon situation, and flashed 30 home run potential in his age 24 season last year. I won't have these guys in my cash game lineups while Kris Bryant is alive, but I might dabble in a little Mets action for big tourneys.

Outfield

A quick note on outfield - it's tough to spend up profitably in the outfield today, so you should expect to deploy a pile of cheaper guys to help you pay up elsewhere. Let's dive in.

Carlos Gomez FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.77 DK - 7.91
Call me crazy, but I think Gomez is still a very interesting upside play even if he's not going to be in MVP discussions ever again. Yes, Gomez strikes out WAY too much to really put his speed package to use, but his upside stats are still pretty darned dreamy. The 13 homers and 18 steals on 453 PA last season are a 17/25ish full season rate, which presents more than acceptable upside if we're dreaming on a big tournament win. We're still going to want to deploy him sparingly, though - he might be a true 30% K rate guy, and that's just not playable in any but the very best circumstances. You know who qualifies there, though? Kendall Graveman. My man had just 5.23 Ks/9 last season, which happened to land him 3rd to last in the entire major leagues amongst qualified pitchers. I'm giving Gomez the green light tonight.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - OAK (Graveman) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.56
For starters, we like Choo for all the same match-up reasons as Gomez. Great park, terrible pitcher, you get the idea. Choo appears to have lost a decent amount of what power he once had, but his approach is still top notch, and it stands to reason that he can take advantage of a replacement level (or worse) pitcher like Graveman. I don't think he takes advantage in the high upside way, but he appears to be a very safe cash game inclusion if you just want a cheap OBP threat with good runs/RBI upside.

Kyle Schwarber FD 3500 DK 4800
Opponent - MIL (Milone) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.07 DK - 8.08
A simple "more Cubs, plz" pick, it's true. If I had to pick between the Cubs I've listed so far, I'd take Schwarber ahead of only Russell, but I still think he's worth a look here. Schwarber still strikes out too much, and does struggle against hard throwing lefties, but the through-the-roof power is enough to make him a high upside play that many won't be on thanks to wanting to prioritize other Cubs tonight.

Mitch Haniger FD 2000 DK 3300
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 8.68 DK - 6.61
Chris Young FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 8.62 DK - 6.43
A couple of guys batting higher in their potent offenses than you might realize, and doing so for very affordable prices. Haniger bat 2nd the other night, and Young looks to be getting decent reps at 5th in the order. Here's a quick lesson about daily fantasy baseball for you - batting order really, really matters. Now you probably knew that on some level. It's good to bat around good hitters, etc. But it's a real needle mover in the very bottom price tier, and these two (and any similar fellas) should be on your radar if you need to fill some gaps at low price points in the outfield.

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