Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Texas Motor Speedway - Fort Worth, TX
Track - 1.5 Mile Quad Oval Intermediate Track
20° - 24° Banking in the Corners
After an exciting caution filled Martinsville race, the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series moves on to Texas where everything is bigger! Drivers and teams will face something new this time around at Texas Motor Speedway as the track just completed a repave less than a month ago. The track has always been one that took forever to dry in the event of rain so they did some work to the drainage as well as some other big changes that will most definitely affect the racing.
I found some footage on YouTube of a pace car ride that Chris Buescher took after the repave and he went over some of the changes. It is a seven-minute video talking about banking, pavement and track conditions so if you aren't a nerd like me, I will sum it up for you. They took the banking in turns one and two down from 24 to 20 degrees and also widened those corners from 60 - 80 feet wide. This was in an attempt to create some more passing zones as the track is one of the fastest non-plate tracks on the circuit and can sometimes see a leader get way out in front on a green flag run. This now adds another element of the setup for the crew chief and team as one setup won't be perfect both ends of the race track. It will also create some crazy restarts as drivers now have an added 20 feet of track going into turn one. Add that to the already crazy restarts from the stage racing, and we could be in for a very exciting race on Sunday. Below is a video of soem the press conference snippets from Track owner Eddie Gossage on the reasons for the track repave.
Without any testing prior to this week drivers and teams really only have the Buescher YouTube Vidoe for research on the new pave. A couple days ago we did get this tweet from Rodney Childers(Crew chief of #4 Kevin Harvick). It's now time to go back and watch the Kentucky race.
Before getting into my early week picks, let's take a look at some of the top trends from Texas Motor Speedway.
Kyle Busch missed the spring race in 2015 due to injury but has been one of the dominating drivers here at Texas with a win here last spring and a Top 5 in all three races over the last two years. Sliding in behind Busch in the 2nd through 4th spot are three of the four Hendrick Motorsports drivers. Dale Earnhardt Jr. has finished 2nd, 6th, and 3rd in the last two years while Jimmie Johnson has finished 11th, 4th, and won both races here in 2015. Chase Elliott has only raced here twice but finished inside the Top 5 in both races last year. The laps led haven't been dominated by one driver but rather, we have seen four drivers with 100 or more over the last four races here at TMS.
With his success last year at Texas, Chase Elliott sits at the top of the ranks early in his career. Right behind him is the legend himself, Jimmie Johnson who is near the top at almost every track in NASCAR. He has won here six times with 14 Top 5's and 20 Top 10's in 27 career races. Jimmie has also led all drivers with 1,023 laps led. Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Matt Kenseth and Kyle Busch sit right behind Jimmie with 9.4 and 11.6 average finishes respectively. Both have also led over 700 laps here.
Jimmie Johnson hasn't been as consistent the last few years(weird to say as he won Championship) but has seven total wins on intermediate tracks making up half of his Top 10 finishes. Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, Brad Keselowski, and Kevin Harvick have been the dominant drivers over the last two years as the only four drivers with an average finish under 10.0. All four have multiple wins and Harvick, Truex and Keselowski have all lead more than 1,000 laps.
Now that we are six races into the season the current form in the model will be much more accurate. No surprise at the top as Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series points leader Kyle Larson held on to the lead despite a 17th place finish last week at Martinsville. Before that, he had a win and three straight runner-up finishes. He is an ascending driver in the series and should be considered in the elite class. Brad Keselowski is not far off from grabbing that lead away. Since his accident and 27th place finish at Daytona Brad has won twice and finished each of the five races inside the Top 5. Bad Brad is back and running near the front throughout the entire race.
There are seven drivers this week who seen a $300 or more decrease in their salary. Most notable is A.J. Allmendinger who dropped $1,600 after a 6th place finish at Martinsville. He doesn't stand out by any means here at Texas with just two career Top 10's but hasn't finished worse than 23rd over the last six races here. It will really come down to his qualifying and practice times to determine if he is a good play. Jimmie Johnson and the #48 Lowes team has had a frustrating start to the season with just one Top 10(Phoenix) and the salary has dropped once again making him a nice value at a track he has dominated over his career. Last time his salary took a big hit he paid off with that Top 10 at Phoenix. Keep your eyes peeled to practice, especially final practice this week.
Kyle Busch ($9,900)
He is back under $10K for the first time since the Daytona 500 and the #18 team is finding their speed. If not for the contact at the end of stage two last week, Kyle might have kept dominating the race. He did, however, grab a runner-up(best finish of season) which was his third straight Top 10 finish. He now comes back to a track where he has dominated with two wins and seven Top 10 finishes in his last eight races.
Kevin Harvick ($10,000)
Happy Harvick has seen a trend downwards in his ownership and s starting to trend back up in salary. This presents an excellent opportunity to jump on board this week. While I don't see him in the sub 10% range like last week I do feel he will fall outside the Top 5, depending on practice and qualifying of course. He has never won here in his career but has two Top 5's and four Top 10's in his last four races here at Texas.
Kasey Kahne ($7,300)
Looking at the trends sheet, Kahne comes in with the biggest DK to Vegas Odds differential of any driver over $6K. His stays the same as last week which falls $600 under his season average and he comes back to Texas with a decent track record. He has finished 8th in three of the last four races here and has one career win back in 2006.
For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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Link to my NASCAR post qualifying/practice pciks article - https://www.dailyfantasysportsrankings.com/2017/04/08/daily-fantasy-nascar-picks-for-draftkings-oreilly-auto-parts-500/
Working on a YouTube video as well. Stay tuned!